Hmmm, no thought for the absolute number of previously working poor who this forces into unemployment?

Here's an effort to get to the accurate numbers. My guestimate was for a move to $15/hr.

The CBO material Adios cited says that with a move to $10.10/hr, the expected job loss is 500k jobs, with "very little job loss" to 1M jobs lost as the 2/3rds confidence interval.

The same material says there would be only 100k expected jobs lost for a move to $9.00/hr.

So, according to the CBO in 2014, the move difference between $9.00/hr min and $10.10/hr min created a change from 100k expected jobs lost to 500k expected jobs lost. Five times.

Is that an exponential growth rate?

I tried and couldn't find a nationwide estimate for a move to $15/hr, though I did find that 42% of workers make less than $15. That's more than I expected. I found 124M full time workers and 28M part time, here https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat08.htm That's 152M. My 300/1000 = 30% speculation would mean 45M people would lose there jobs. My estimate might be too high. Sorry if that seems arrogant. But how much too high? We don't know.

I found that there were 20M people making less than $10.10 per hour, so the CBO's estimate of 500k job losses was 2.5% of those making less than $10.10/hr, compared to my estimate of 30% for a move to $15/hr.

Let's say we take the top of the (merely) 2/3rds confidence interval by the CBO of 1M job losses instead of the 500k expected value. That's now 5% of those in the range losing their jobs. Switch that to an 85% confidence interval, do we get 10% of those in the range thrown out of work?

I speculated that 30% lose there jobs at a $15/hr jump. Maybe that's high, but just based on the CBO number of 5X increase when going from a $9/hr min to a $10.10/hr min, should we get a 5X increase when going from a 10.10/hr min to a 15/hr min?

Edit: Sorry, I did some math wrong above. The total job loss I predicted is 152M*.42*.30 = 19M, not 45M.

Also, I found a Forbes article saying 6.6M jobs would be lost.

Increasing minimum wage doesn't just hurt all the people that lose their job. It hurts everyone not getting the pay raise. The cost of a huge majority (almost all) of products and services will go up.

From the Forbes article:

"So, to get the middle unemployment outcome [6.6M jobs lost] they use exactly the same model that the CBO uses when it advises Congress."
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst.../#3d4fdf3d2b46

Another model in that article gives an estimate of 16.8M jobs lost. Pretty cool how close that is to my estimate of 19M.

If any of y'all are black, the POTUS needs your help getting in touch with (obviously) your friends, the Congressional Black Caucus, who sent him a letter back in January.

Trump's pick to replace Flynn turns down the job

This administration = total trainwreck

Lol. Come on goofy. Don't exaggerate.

This administration is doing fine. He turned down the job, so what? Non-issue imo.

By the way the press conference was excellent I thought. A masterclass in how to deal with the dishonest media.

By providing too much material to be covered in one news show?

lol did you think the thing about electoral results I quoted was "excellent" and a "masterclass" as he stumbled through being like "well that's just the info I was given, I can't help it if I'm gullible and believe lies"?

Shep dropping some FIRE on Fox News re: "fake news"

'It's the smoke detectors fault and if only we could find it through all this smoke.'

The electoral results stuff is just trivia. So, he got wrong information. Who cares? It's not important.

As for Shep, he's just falling for some of the mass hysteria going around. He'll come to his senses.

It's important because the election was months ago and he's trying to use the EC numbers to imply he has a mandate to do the ****ty stuff he is going to do. He doesn't and needs to be reminded of it all the time. It's also the president lying over and over again but NBD right?

He's got a mandate because he won the ****ing election.

Man, remember the times when there used to be a debate about whether Bush's 2004 election victory constituted a "mandate" or not? Conservatives are just ****ing lazy these days, now it's HURR DURR HE WON = MANDATE

Remember that pesky popular vote? That's where you know if you have a mandate.

Trump fans are delusional.

He has a habit of spreading wrong information. Like spreading fabricated statistics on black crime.. He never corrected that or apologized for it. But that's not important, either, I guess. He said the murder rate was the highest in 40 years. About as wrong as can be. But, hey, just trivia. Obama's birth certificate is fake. Someone gave him wrong info. Millions cases of voter fraud. Made that up too. Who cares?

lol at people like you.

If TRUMP resigns would you be happy?

Yeah, this. If it was an isolated incident, who cares? But its not a coincidence that he is getting this or the size of his inauguration crowd wrong.

These are willful delusions driven by his insecurities. Emotional stability is something I kind of want in a president.

Words have meanings. "Mandate" here does not mean what you think it does.

In addition to the fact that only 46% of voters pulled the lever for him, most of his stupid nonsense is deeply unpopular.

Pence would be a different kind of awful, but awful nonetheless, and surrounded by most or all of the same awful people.

Total train wreck doesn't really do justice to what is going on. The train wreck analogy sort of suggests that all the affected people are on the train. For the Trump administration so far, I would go with some sort of meltdown analogy variant. Is it time to say nuclear meltdown yet? Maybe not, but that is on the horizon.

We are talking about an administration from which the intelligence agency complex is withholding intelligence because it thinks that sharing it with the administration would make the country less safe. Do you have any idea of the magnitude of that development? Of course you don't.

I would hope that's not try and he would get rid of some of the worst of Trump's choices.

Not true. Check your facts.

Uh, even Fox News is reporting it.

Fake news. Read the article properly.