Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerodox
"Once fully implemented in the second half of 2016, the $10.10 option would reduce total employment by about 500,000 workers, or 0.3 percent..."
Agreed that I guessed at the numbers (300 out of every 1000), but we are talking 500,000 workers out of those in the range to be effected, not 500,000 out of all U.S. workers. Feel free to do the research (admittedly, I don't have the exact numbers), and then show us why 500,000 newly unemployed workers are insignificant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
That level of arrogance (hey I'm just gonna pull numbers totally out of my ass and make you tell me why I'm wrong) is what pissed me off about your post. Talk about "bias" and "fake news" and ****, jesus.
Hmmm, no thought for the
absolute number of previously working poor who this forces into unemployment?
Here's an effort to get to the accurate numbers. My guestimate was for a move to $15/hr.
The CBO material Adios cited says that with a move to $10.10/hr, the expected job loss is 500k jobs, with "very little job loss" to 1M jobs lost as the 2/3rds confidence interval.
The same material says there would be only 100k expected jobs lost for a move to $9.00/hr.
So, according to the CBO in 2014, the move difference between $9.00/hr min and $10.10/hr min created a change from 100k expected jobs lost to 500k expected jobs lost. Five times.
Is that an exponential growth rate?
I tried and couldn't find a nationwide estimate for a move to $15/hr, though I did find that 42% of workers make less than $15. That's more than I expected. I found 124M full time workers and 28M part time, here
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat08.htm That's 152M. My 300/1000 = 30% speculation would mean 45M people would lose there jobs. My estimate might be too high. Sorry if that seems arrogant. But how much too high? We don't know.
I found that there were 20M people making less than $10.10 per hour, so the CBO's estimate of 500k job losses was 2.5% of those making less than $10.10/hr, compared to my estimate of 30% for a move to $15/hr.
Let's say we take the top of the (merely) 2/3rds confidence interval by the CBO of 1M job losses instead of the 500k expected value. That's now 5% of those in the range losing their jobs. Switch that to an 85% confidence interval, do we get 10% of those in the range thrown out of work?
I speculated that 30% lose there jobs at a $15/hr jump. Maybe that's high, but just based on the CBO number of 5X increase when going from a $9/hr min to a $10.10/hr min, should we get a 5X increase when going from a 10.10/hr min to a 15/hr min?
Edit: Sorry, I did some math wrong above. The total job loss I predicted is 152M*.42*.30 = 19M, not 45M.
Also, I found a Forbes article saying 6.6M jobs would be lost.
Last edited by pokerodox; 02-16-2017 at 06:20 PM.