Thought about starting a new thread, but I don't think it will persuade anyone.
However, good statistical analysis of:
Some Stronger Evidence that the Affordable Care Act made the Opiod Crisis Worse:
https://spottedtoad.wordpress.com/20...opioid-crisis/
It demonstrates increased Opiod Deaths to states that Expanded Medicaid.
If you increase access to narcotics, populations may take advantage of that increased access.
The data seems sound and the comments try to find other causations. He even has data showing that deaths were relatively even prior to ACA passage and then spikes developed in the expansion states. I'm sure Well Named might have some insight here - however, there are some replies in the comments section to alternative hypotheses.