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Old 06-25-2017, 12:43 PM   #6901
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Re: President Trump

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Originally Posted by Victor View Post
so food stamps plus free housing ~= 16k? is that one you mean? seems a reasonable approximation.

but is that really a life worth living? for some ppl sure. but I would imagine all but a very small fraction of ppl would much prefer to work a job to create a better life.
I know more then a few people who make 20kish and get food stamps and other help to get by. Odd thing when the incentives are supposed to mean they could just quit their job and go full on welfare.

Also the median household here is 40k so most of the people could quit and go on welfare and make about the same. But dont. Bs on the incentive bit. Least here most want to work and dont want to take welfare.
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Old 06-25-2017, 12:48 PM   #6902
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Re: President Trump

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A W is a W bro. Doesn't matter what the margin is. Remember the GE.

And we're not sick of winning yet, not by a longshot.
No one is arguing the Republicans didn't win.The margin shows that Democratic criticism of Trump is working.

But, nah, you're right. Everything is great.
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Old 06-25-2017, 12:57 PM   #6903
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Re: President Trump

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No one is arguing the Republicans didn't win.The margin shows that Democratic criticism of Trump is working.

But, nah, you're right. Everything is great.
The Democrats criticized Trump plenty before the election.

How did that work for you?

Your gonna have to find some Trump kryptonite because anything else you try won't work.

Also, you need to take a seriouse look at your attitudes and rhetoric. That's not working either.
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Old 06-25-2017, 01:22 PM   #6904
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Re: President Trump

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No one is arguing the Republicans didn't win.The margin shows that Democratic criticism of Trump is working.

But, nah, you're right. Everything is great.
Unless I'm wrong, the reverse is happening.

We shall see, but my gut is telling me everyone is pretty much sick of the lefts crap. There is a deep hatred of the left right now. People don't say it openly but it's there.

We shall see. I'm very interested in the 2018 elections. If I had to bet I would bet you guys are going to get nuked.
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Old 06-25-2017, 01:28 PM   #6905
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Re: President Trump

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Originally Posted by mongidig View Post
The Democrats criticized Trump plenty before the election.

How did that work for you?

Your gonna have to find some Trump kryptonite because anything else you try won't work.

Also, you need to take a seriouse look at your attitudes and rhetoric. That's not working either.
Yep. Things are fine. There's no way that declining margins of victory in some districts could happen in others. And low approval ratings for Trump are fabricated. Independent counsels investigating Presidents is just standard practice. I regret my mistake.
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Old 06-25-2017, 01:42 PM   #6906
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Re: President Trump

Not criticizing and shutting the **** up has always been the best way to effect change in goverment.
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Old 06-25-2017, 01:54 PM   #6907
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Re: President Trump

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I take it that the main issue wil was talking about wasn't the hypothetical no-minimum-wage world, but rather the effects of efforts to increase the minimum wage from its current amount. For example, Ed Rensi, former CEO of McDonald's USA, wrote an article last November claiming that McDonald's investment in these self-service kiosks was at least partially in response to the Fight for $15 movement. I don't know if that is actually accurate, but it is plausible enough.
I agree that it's plausible that it played some role in their decision, but when I put that into the larger context it doesn't seem to me to be an indictment against liberal concern about a living wage. I think it speaks to the need to develop new policy ideas, and there's a larger argument about this in the context of rising inequality.

But, I think it's almost certainly the case that McDonald's would have and will pursue automation regardless of their concern about impending wage changes, for the reasons I gave before. It's economically advantageous for them to do so in almost any conceivable regulatory environment.

I also think the point about it not making a lot of difference to workers is true even at the current federal minimum, which Wil seems to agree with. The motivation behind raising the minimum wage is that it's not a livable wage in many places, even working full time. This problem where it's difficult to earn an adequate living as an unskilled laborer is related to the growth of technology and automation, and it's going to continue to get worse regardless of impending minimum wage law changes.

It's one thing to point out that if liberals think raising the minimum wage is a complete solution to all these problems then they are kidding themselves, but it's another thing to blame liberal efforts to provide people with a living wage for the overall trends towards automation, or for even for McDonald's decision. I think it requires a pretty charitable reading of Wil's first post on the subject to read it as the former and not the latter.
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Old 06-25-2017, 02:05 PM   #6908
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Re: President Trump

I apologize for saying white people feel entitled. That was racist.
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Old 06-25-2017, 02:18 PM   #6909
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Re: President Trump

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Originally Posted by batair View Post
I know more then a few people who make 20kish and get food stamps and other help to get by. Odd thing when the incentives are supposed to mean they could just quit their job and go full on welfare.

Also the median household here is 40k so most of the people could quit and go on welfare and make about the same. But dont. Bs on the incentive bit. Least here most want to work and dont want to take welfare.

So because you know a lot of people who choose to work for min wage, it means that it has no impact on peoples choices?

Not that I'd hold it against people in such an unfortunate spot to choose to live on welfare. I'd even argue it's sometimes a superior choice to a lot of jobs if the premium is only something to the tune of a 25% increase in effective income. It gives you time to figure out something better or learn a skill.

I suspect people who choose min wage jobs over welfare benefits are the ones who were fortunate enough to get jobs that are relatively desirable that, if there was no min wage, would pay significantly less. The ones who choose welfare are probably the ones who could only get crap factory jobs that work you to the bone.

FWIW I think you can absolutely live on 10k. In university I lived on roughly that much and didn't feel like i was missing anything. Had to share a flat with a few people and pay close attention to grocery prices but those seem like reasonable sacrifices... certainly nothing deserving of pity. I would argue that my quality of life at that point was objectively better than the years I spent working to get where i am financially.

Of course it isn't doable though if you're incapable of making compromises and have convinced yourself that renting a 2 bedroom apartment on your own is a necessity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBECQFDdXVw&t=98s

god damnit david pakman is a worthless ******.

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Old 06-25-2017, 02:39 PM   #6910
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Re: President Trump

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So because you know a lot of people who choose to work for min wage, it means that it has no impact on peoples choices?

Not that I'd hold it against people in such an unfortunate spot to choose to live on welfare. I'd even argue it's sometimes a superior choice to a lot of jobs if the premium is only something to the tune of a 25% increase in effective income. It gives you time to figure out something better or learn a skill.

I suspect people who choose min wage jobs over welfare benefits are the ones who were fortunate enough to get jobs that are relatively desirable that, if there was no min wage, would pay significantly less. The ones who choose welfare are probably the ones who could only get crap factory jobs that work you to the bone.

FWIW I think you can absolutely live on 10k. In university I lived on roughly that much and didn't feel like i was missing anything. Had to share a flat with a few people and pay close attention to grocery prices but those seem like reasonable sacrifices... certainly nothing deserving of pity. I would argue that my life at that point was objectively better than the years I spent working to get where i am financially.

Of course it isn't doable though if you're incapable of making compromises and have convinced yourself that renting a 2 bedroom apartment on your own is a necessity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBECQFDdXVw&t=98s

god damnit david pakman is a worthless ******.
What im saying is its bs welfare is incentivizing. At least for most. Most will work a 40 hour a week job, sometimes more, at or lower then the 35k wil put out there before going on welfare. Partly because its a pain. Partly because most want to work.

If the median household is 40k in my area why are way way... more people working then sucking up that sweet welfare? Why are the people making 20k not quitting their jobs and getting full welfare benefits? My guess is because they would rather work then get the equivalence in welfare.

I make less then 35k so i should be going on welfare myself. And those crap factory jobs. Those would be great but they are not coming back.

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Old 06-25-2017, 02:41 PM   #6911
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Re: President Trump

Is giving up a job and claiming welfare actually an option under the rules?
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Old 06-25-2017, 03:10 PM   #6912
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Re: President Trump

Ive never been on it and dont know that much about it but i think you could do that especially if you have a family. It might be harder if you were single and i think some places there are time limits and many other hoops to jump through. So ymmv.
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Old 06-25-2017, 03:13 PM   #6913
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Re: President Trump

I think it depends on the specific program, but for example SNAP has an employment requirement.

Edit: TANF (actual welfare payments) seems to have eligibility requirements decided by each state, but this CBPP article suggests that those state requirements must include an employment requirement. "States must require recipients to engage in work activities and must impose sanctions (by reducing or terminating benefits) if an individual refuses to participate."
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Old 06-25-2017, 03:31 PM   #6914
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Re: President Trump

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Originally Posted by batair View Post
What im saying is its bs welfare is incentivizing. At least for most. Most will work a 40 hour a week job, sometimes more, at or lower then the 35k wil put out there before going on welfare. Partly because its a pain. Partly because most want to work.

If the median household is 40k in my area why are way way... more people working then sucking up that sweet welfare? Why are the people making 20k not quitting their jobs and getting full welfare benefits? My guess is because they would rather work then get the equivalence in welfare.

I make less then 35k so i should be going on welfare myself. And those crap factory jobs. Those would be great but they are not coming back.
Again, you assume situations and incentives for other people. I told you about the parents who want their kids labelled autistic so they can receive more benefits, right? Who would ever think a parent would want their kids diagnosed as special needs? No one would assume that, yet some do. I wouldn't have believed it if my best friends wife didn't tell me personally. The very idea of it sounds absurd.

There's nothing "sweet" about welfare. It's an option and for some it's an acceptable option. For you and me and most others we wouldn't accept that type of lifestyle but I sure as hell don't assume everyone feels that way.
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Old 06-25-2017, 03:31 PM   #6915
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Re: President Trump

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On the surface I like the idea, especially so because it seems it would take away the "butthurt factor", which is what I think hurts the incentive for universal healthcare in the United States. People simply do not like it when they feel other people are getting a free ride, whether it's true or not. People view healthcare as a direct wealth transfer between groups, and I can understand why. It seems UBI, on the surface, would be great because the wealthier people get their 10k too.
I don't think there is something special about healthcare that makes Americans less willing for it to be universal. For instance, Medicare, which is as close as we get to a universal healthcare program is popular. Even with complete control of government the GOP is leaving it alone. Rather, I think it is need-based programs like Medicaid which struggle to maintain political support.

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I googled around a bit to see what holes people poke into the idea and it seems a bit troubling.

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/a...ome-good-idea/

From the point of view of economists, a UBI is not feasible. “Thoughtful liberals and conservatives trained in economics are almost universally against the idea,” Smetters says. Former Clinton official and economist Laura Tyson writes that “a UBI for the United States is as fanciful as President Donald Trump’s border wall: It would be prohibitively expensive; and it would not solve the problems that it is meant to address.” UBI would benefit higher-income workers and distracts from immediate problems such as stagnant wages and persistent poverty. Instead, the U.S. should expand benefits for existing programs such as Medicaid, critics argue.

Meanwhile, conservative economist Martin Feldstein opines that a universal income would be “impossibly expensive.” The former Reagan official says paying for the program without raising the deficit would require “doubling the personal income tax.” A UBI that pays every American $10,000 a year would cost about $3 trillion, Smetters says. Conservative economists do not like it because it would harm economic growth, he adds.


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7505561.html

Basic income is the latest bad political idea that refuses to die
This survey of expert economists is pretty opposed as well, with 60% opposed and only 2% in favor. Hmm...that is troubling.

Quote:
I find the entire idea intriguing but due to the extremely large nature of this and the inherent distrust of large scale programs, I would bet that we never see something like this in our lifetimes. I have a deep concern about the path forward for many groups of people. Unskilled labor, felons, and even worthless degrees attained in college are a harder obstacle to overcome. Forget the ability to buy a house and invest, these people have a hard time just trying to survive. I couldn't imagine what I'd be doing if I had a sociology degree, much less have ever spent a few years in prison.

The current situation in the United States is pretty grim. To have a "successful" life you need to almost thread the needle perfectly (at least, in my specific area). A means to acquire a good skillset, a decent to high-paying job with a transferable skillset to ensure survival, and a vehicle for financial growth. The poor lack all of these, and that's extremely troubling.
Grim compared to what baseline? Do you think poor people are economically worse off now that they were in the past? For instance, inequality started widening in the US around 1980. But for the bottom 20% of households by income, average after-tax income between 1979-2013 still increased by 46%. I'll note this is actually a greater increase than the 41% income growth for the middle 60% of people.

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Old 06-25-2017, 03:35 PM   #6916
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Re: President Trump

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Again, you assume situations and incentives for other people. I told you about the parents who want their kids labelled autistic so they can receive more benefits, right? Who would ever think a parent would want their kids diagnosed as special needs? No one would assume that, yet they do.

There's nothing "sweet" about welfare. It's an option and for some it'd a viable option. For you and me and most others we wouldn't accept that type of lifestyle but I sure as hell don't assume everyone feels that way.
Never said everyone, said most are not incentivized to get on welfare for the equivalent pay of a job.
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Old 06-25-2017, 03:51 PM   #6917
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Re: President Trump

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What im saying is its bs welfare is incentivizing. At least for most. Most will work a 40 hour a week job, sometimes more, at or lower then the 35k wil put out there before going on welfare. Partly because its a pain. Partly because most want to work.

If the median household is 40k in my area why are way way... more people working then sucking up that sweet welfare? Why are the people making 20k not quitting their jobs and getting full welfare benefits? My guess is because they would rather work then get the equivalence in welfare.

I make less then 35k so i should be going on welfare myself. And those crap factory jobs. Those would be great but they are not coming back.
They're generally not quitting because they make considerably more working than they get in benefits and because working is often a condition for receiving specific benefits. Not always... some specific circumstances push people towards not working, and usually they respond in a rational way when presented with the opportunity.

The point is less about substitution than it is about diminishing returns of money though. If you have a baseline of 30k in benefits you'd have to be one dull mother****er to spend your days doing manual labor for an additional 15k.
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Old 06-25-2017, 04:19 PM   #6918
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Re: President Trump

Alright.
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Old 06-25-2017, 05:59 PM   #6919
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Re: President Trump

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Unless I'm wrong, the reverse is happening.

We shall see, but my gut is telling me everyone is pretty much sick of the lefts crap. There is a deep hatred of the left right now. People don't say it openly but it's there.

We shall see. I'm very interested in the 2018 elections. If I had to bet I would bet you guys are going to get nuked.
With regards to the House, this is ridiculous. There isn't a single thing that points to any result other than Democrats gaining seats, possibly a significant number.

As far as the Senate, it's still up in the air; the only reason it might be a good result for Republicans is that they happened to luck out in that this cycle features very few R seats that aren't safe, but several D ones.

In gubernatorial races, there are only 4 Democrat held seats that could possibly flip (CO, CT, MN, PA). Republican held Governor seats that could flip are FL, IL, ME, MI, NV, and WI. It's possible KS could as well, due to backlash over the utterly incompetent Brownback, although he cannot run again. When you throw in the fact that 2017 will feature an obvious flip from R-to-D in NJ, where Chris Christie currently has an approval rating lower than Jack The Ripper would pull in a Rasmussen poll where only prostitutes were surveyed, it seems likely mathematically that between now and 11/18, Dems will pickup Governor's seats, not lose them.
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Old 06-25-2017, 06:16 PM   #6920
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Re: President Trump

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Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb View Post
With regards to the House, this is ridiculous. There isn't a single thing that points to any result other than Democrats gaining seats, possibly a significant number.

As far as the Senate, it's still up in the air; the only reason it might be a good result for Republicans is that they happened to luck out in that this cycle features very few R seats that aren't safe, but several D ones.

In gubernatorial races, there are only 4 Democrat held seats that could possibly flip (CO, CT, MN, PA). Republican held Governor seats that could flip are FL, IL, ME, MI, NV, and WI. It's possible KS could as well, due to backlash over the utterly incompetent Brownback, although he cannot run again. When you throw in the fact that 2017 will feature an obvious flip from R-to-D in NJ, where Chris Christie currently has an approval rating lower than Jack The Ripper would pull in a Rasmussen poll where only prostitutes were surveyed, it seems likely mathematically that between now and 11/18, Dems will pickup Governor's seats, not lose them.
As I've said, we shall see. I can honestly say I've never seen what I'm seeing now. There is deep hatred on both sides, but the left is absolutely bat-**** crazy right now. The conservatives are pissed but they keep a low profile. They are well aware of how liberals feel about them and their views, so they just stay silent to keep the peace.

Do not be surprised if next year turns out to be disappointing.
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Old 06-25-2017, 06:23 PM   #6921
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Re: President Trump

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You are making a fundamental mistake in thinking what you consider acceptable is what another person will consider as acceptable.

How could you or me possibly imagine the life of an uneducated, unskilled person? If you didn't graduate high school and went to jail for 5 years, what would you consider acceptable?

I know many poor people and I've sat and talked with them and had long conversations. I'm very friendly with a homeless Vietnam vet who I've known for 15 years, he hangs out in front of the bar I drink at. I give him 5 bucks every night I see him and he keeps an eye on my car for me and used to run to the store if I ever needed cigarettes back when I used to smoke (I would give him 10 dollars to do it). He's disabled and uneducated and went through hell and back. What could you or me possibly determine what kind of life he considers acceptable?

It's amazing how ignorant 2+2ers are. Yes, if i lived his life I might consider suicide, but I sure as hell don't pretend to assume he feels the same way.
This is the most horrifically callous post you've ever made wil, which is saying a lot.
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Old 06-25-2017, 06:25 PM   #6922
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Re: President Trump

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I admit to ignorance here and not taking a position, just what i heard on cbs news while getting ready for work, but most of the big foreign policy decisions like saudi arabia arms deals and some syria bombings were simply carried out under trump and planned under obama. is that accurate?
Has anyone done a deep dive into why right wingers do this rhetorical trip where they hear something they think is good for them and ask others to confirm as like, a roundabout own?

I've never seen anyone on the center or left do it and it never really connects, but the chain email set ****ing loves it.
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Old 06-25-2017, 08:20 PM   #6923
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This is the most horrifically callous post you've ever made wil, which is saying a lot.
Don't judge fiction so harshly. That's just wil imagining scenarios which (to his thinking) justify his socially unacceptable attitudes ala "I have a lot of black friends so it's cool I diss black people".

Watch this:

Hey wil, tell us about your black friends.
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Old 06-25-2017, 09:11 PM   #6924
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Re: President Trump

I live off about 20k a year. it's not that bad. The only difference between me and an average 20k a year person is if i get into a really big jam my parents and or family have bailed me out a few times. The idea that a life on 16k a year isnt even worth living is nonsense.
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Old 06-25-2017, 09:22 PM   #6925
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Re: President Trump

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Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb View Post
With regards to the House, this is ridiculous. There isn't a single thing that points to any result other than Democrats gaining seats, possibly a significant number.

As far as the Senate, it's still up in the air; the only reason it might be a good result for Republicans is that they happened to luck out in that this cycle features very few R seats that aren't safe, but several D ones.

In gubernatorial races, there are only 4 Democrat held seats that could possibly flip (CO, CT, MN, PA). Republican held Governor seats that could flip are FL, IL, ME, MI, NV, and WI. It's possible KS could as well, due to backlash over the utterly incompetent Brownback, although he cannot run again. When you throw in the fact that 2017 will feature an obvious flip from R-to-D in NJ, where Chris Christie currently has an approval rating lower than Jack The Ripper would pull in a Rasmussen poll where only prostitutes were surveyed, it seems likely mathematically that between now and 11/18, Dems will pickup Governor's seats, not lose them.
Tn governor could flip. Super popular former Nashville mayor running against weak GOP field.
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