President Trump - Page 136 - Politics version 7.0 -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

Certainly there are other factors, but I am curious how you can continue to assert that Obama was an anti-growth President, despite presiding over one of the most consistent periods of growth in recent American history. Certainly, you must have access to some other metric or piece of evidence that I have not yet been able to find to back up what you have to say. I am confident that you will provide it soon, because otherwise, your baseless assertions in the absence of evidence and in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, would necessarily mean that you are simply lying for the purpose of promoting some kind of partisan agenda. And since I know that that can't possibly be true, I look forward to seeing you back up what you have to say.

Here is an analogy that I think can help you:

If I was selling hotdogs @ my HD stand and I noticed on Tuesday I was selling on avg. 20 dogs/day then one Tuesday I decided to raise the price of my dogs from $2 to $3. If I ended up selling 25/dogs a day for the next 5 Tuesdays you would argue that the reason I am selling more dogs is because people like paying more for the same product. However, I would argue it is because I have always sold more dogs in the summer. You would likely not accept this common sense answer and instead ask for some kind of proof from me - who has been in the HD stand business for 20 years (19.5 years longer than you have).

Spoiler:

03-10-2017 , 04:29 PM

#3377

goofyballer

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Mickey, making up random parables about a hot dog stand does not support in any way shape or form your previous claims that Obama is "one of the most anti-business and anti-growth presidents we've ever had". Cite with measurable data or STFU.

03-10-2017 , 04:29 PM

#3378

13ball

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Guys, your president thinks that anything that looks good for him is true and anything that looks bad for him is false. Don't lecture us on the nuance of the DJIA. We invented nuance.

03-10-2017 , 04:32 PM

#3379

einbert

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Obama Outperforms Reagan On Jobs, Growth And Investing
https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhar.../#1cbb78217701

Quote:

This is the best private sector jobs creation performance in American history

Unemployment Reagan v ObamaBob Deitrick: "President Reagan has long been considered the best modern economic President. So we compared his performance dealing with the oil-induced recession of the 1980s with that of President Obama and his performance during this 'Great Recession.'

"As this unemployment chart shows, President Obama's job creation kept unemployment from peaking at as high a level as President Reagan, and promoted people into the workforce faster than President Reagan.

"President Obama has achieved a 6.1% unemployment rate in his sixth year, fully one year faster than President Reagan did. At this point in his presidency, President Reagan was still struggling with 7.1% unemployment, and he did not reach into the mid-low 6% range for another full year. So, despite today's number, the Obama administration has still done considerably better at job creating and reducing unemployment than did the Reagan administration.

"We forecast unemployment will fall to around 5.4% by summer, 2015. A rate President Reagan was unable to achieve during his two terms."

What about the Labor Participation Rate?

Much has been made about the poor results of the labor participation rate, which has shown more stubborn recalcitrance as this rate remains higher even as jobs have grown.

U3 v U6 1994-2014Deitrick: "The labor participation rate adds in jobless part time workers and those in marginal work situations with those seeking full time work. This is not a "hidden" unemployment. It is a measure tracked since 1900 and called 'U6.' today by the BLS.

"As this chart shows, the difference between reported unemployment and all unemployment - including those on the fringe of the workforce - has remained pretty constant since 1994.

"Labor participation is affected much less by short-term job creation, and much more by long-term demographic trends. As this chart from the BLS shows, as the Baby Boomers entered the workforce and societal acceptance of women working changed, labor participation grew.

"Now that 'Boomers' are retiring we are seeing the percentage of those seeking employment decline. This has nothing to do with job availability, and everything to do with a highly predictable aging demographic.

"What's now clear is that the Obama administration policies have outperformed the Reagan administration policies for job creation and unemployment reduction. Even though Reagan had the benefit of a growing Boomer class to ignite economic growth, while Obama has been forced to deal with a retiring workforce developing special needs. During the eight years preceding Obama there was a net reduction in jobs in America. We now are rapidly moving toward higher, sustainable jobs growth."

Economic growth, including manufacturing, is driving jobs

When President Obama took office America was gripped in an offshoring boom, started years earlier, pushing jobs to the developing world. Manufacturing was declining in America, and plants were closing across the nation.

This week the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its manufacturing report, and it surprised nearly everyone. The latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) scored 59, two points higher than July and about that much higher than prognosticators expected. This represents 63 straight months of economic expansion, and 25 consecutive months of manufacturing expansion.

New orders were up 3.3 points to 66.7, with 15 consecutive months of improvement and reaching the highest level since April, 2004 - five years prior to Obama becoming President. Not surprisingly, this economic growth provided for 14 consecutive months of improvement in the employment index. Meaning that the "grass roots" economy made its turn for the better just as the DJIA was reaching those highs back in 2013 - demonstrating that index is still the leading indicator for jobs that it has famously always been.

As the last 15 months have proven, jobs and economy are improving, and investors are benefiting

The stock market has converted the long-term growth in jobs and GDP into additional gains for investors. Recently the S&P has crested 2,000 - reaching new all time highs. Gains made by investors earlier in the Obama administration have further grown, helping businesses raise capital and improving the nest eggs of almost all Americans. And laying the foundation for recent, and prolonged job growth.

03-10-2017 , 04:39 PM

#3380

juan valdez

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

you realize that the stock market fallacy also tells you a story where trump is gods gift to the economy right?

go ahead and articulate a pov or go ahead and shout talking points passed the opposition

03-10-2017 , 04:43 PM

#3381

Huehuecoyotl

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Pretty sure the stock market is like a penis, it works on sexual charisma. When one that exudes pure sexuality, like Trump, comes into the office, it can't help but go up.

03-10-2017 , 04:49 PM

#3382

Huehuecoyotl

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Got that one off of Reddit where they have the best stock market theories.

03-10-2017 , 04:50 PM

#3383

juan valdez

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thats a phallicy

03-10-2017 , 04:53 PM

#3384

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

you realize that the stock market fallacy also tells you a story where trump is gods gift to the economy right?

If the stock market increases over the course of Trump's presidency as much as it increased over Obama's, that would be a good sign that he's doing something right.

In any case, mickey is the one making a claim here and it's on him to back it up, especially when even the most basic data points (whether it be the stock market or unemployment figures or job creation) all suggest he's wrong.

03-10-2017 , 04:56 PM

#3385

bahbahmickey

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Obamacare
raised taxes
threw around money needlessly (first time home buyer credit)
raised the MW

03-10-2017 , 04:56 PM

#3386

Huehuecoyotl

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None of those are anti business. Well Obamacare is because it keeps employment based insurance, which is anti business, but it expanded Medicare, which is pro business.

03-10-2017 , 04:59 PM

#3387

bahbahmickey

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Einbert, I tried getting through that article, but it was terrible. The author is a fraud - he has no idea there are other factors that effect the economy besides the president.

03-10-2017 , 05:00 PM

#3388

juan valdez

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

so your understanding is that the difference between trump and obamas stock market performance is length of time. obama deserves credit and trump does not because the length of time?

i don't think he posted the graph as evidence. both sides can provide insight. my guess is (like yourself) there will be a complete failure to articulate the strengths and weaknesses in using that graph as evidence for obamas economic success. thats par for the course though

03-10-2017 , 05:02 PM

#3389

bahbahmickey

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl

None of those are anti business. Well Obamacare is because it keeps employment based insurance, which is anti business, but it expanded Medicare, which is pro business.

You think business like being forced to pay a higher MW?
You think business like being forced to have less choices on health insurance?
You think business outside of real estate like having their clients have less money in their pocket when they took the bait on buying real estate?
You think business like being higher taxes so their customers have less money?

03-10-2017 , 05:02 PM

#3390

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bahbahmickey

Obamacare
raised taxes
threw around money needlessly (first time home buyer credit)
raised the MW

Me: "cite with measurable data"
mickey: "OBAMACARE"

...it's just hopeless trying to have discussions with you, don't know what else to say about a post this bad.

03-10-2017 , 05:04 PM

#3391

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

so your understanding is that the difference between trump and obamas stock market performance is length of time. obama deserves credit and trump does not because the length of time?

Surely you understand sample size, or at the poker table do you see someone win their first hand and be like "yeah wow they're super good at the pokers"?

I'm talking about evaluating Trump's presidency in the future, no matter what happened in 1 month (up or down, in anyone's presidency) you can't really say much at this point in time.

03-10-2017 , 05:04 PM

#3392

einbert

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Most Small Businesses Support Minimum Wage Hikes, Survey Says
https://www.aabacosmallbusiness.com/...mum-wage-hikes

Quote:

Opponents of raising the minimum wage, including business groups and chambers of commerce, often argue that proposed pay hikes would be a hardship for businesses, especially small businesses. But recent surveys refute that view.

Eighty percent of 1,000 business executives surveyed nationally by Republican pollster Frank Luntz said they support raising the minimum wage in their state, the Washington Post reported earlier this month.

And after California and New York approved increasing their state minimum wages – ultimately to $15 an hour in a few years – a majority of the 2,400 small business owners polled by the online small business community Manta said they also support higher minimum wages. In fact, 78 percent of them already pay their workers better than minimum wage.

Manta’s survey found that:

• 59 percent of small business owners are in favor of a higher minimum wage.

• 40 percent already pay entry-level employees “far above” the required wage in their state; 38 percent pay “slightly above” minimum wage; and 14 percent pay state or local wages that are above the $7.25 hourly wage required under federal law.

• 59 percent of small business owners would be “more likely to vote for a state or national candidate who supports a minimum wage increase.”

Manta CEO John Swanciger said the survey results surprised him, but that the reasons small businesses support minimum wage hikes are not surprising. “What we found was that paying above the minimum wage increases retention and loyalty, and it’s important to have a workforce that stays around longer,” Swanciger said. “Big businesses sometimes forget what small businesses know: it’s much cheaper to retain people at higher pay scales than it is to pay replacement costs.”

03-10-2017 , 05:06 PM

#3393

einbert

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I guess these Doctors and Hospital special interest groups just hate business?

Doctor, Hospital Groups Line Up Against GOP Health Proposal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ealth-proposal

Quote:

On Wednesday, the U.S.’s biggest advocacy group for doctors came out against House Republicans’ legislation, while the insurance lobby expressed concerns with the bill, adding to growing opposition from the country’s top trade groups for physicians and hospitals who worry that it will leave more people uninsured or with limited coverage.

In a letter to Congress, the American Medical Association said it “cannot support the AHCA as it is currently written,” referring to the American Health Care Act, as the Republican proposal to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act is named. The association calls itself the largest physician advocacy group in the country, and backed the nomination of Tom Price as President Donald Trump’s Health and Human Services secretary and point person on the health law.

The association’s letter adds to growing objections to the bill, which would eliminate much of Obamacare and replace it with smaller tax subsidies to buy insurance. In the last several days, other major physician groups, including the American College of Physicians, the American Academy of Family Physicians and the American Psychiatric Association, have said they have serious issues with or outright oppose the plan. Together they represent hundreds of thousands of U.S. doctors and health professionals.

03-10-2017 , 05:07 PM

#3394

markksman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl

lol He created optimism. Like some guy was sitting at home playing XBox until he heard Trump was President and then he pulled up his pants, tied his shoes, and decided to get a job. The magic fairy dust causation theory.

The world news of America global is reporting the employment numbers are buoyed by trump funneling millions of federal dollars into a program to hire trump supporters as social mediaists. Their job consists on loving everything Trumo does on social media, forums and comment sections. These newly employed people can make UP TO $6 a day.

ALLEGEDLY

03-10-2017 , 05:09 PM

#3395

Huehuecoyotl

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bahbahmickey

I don't think business like anything because they're not human beings. What you meant to say is the owners of capital, which are a unique group who have their own interests. It's in their best interest to confuse their specific interests with some universal good, but their interests are not universally preferable.

There are, of course, countries who have higher effective minimal wages, higher taxes, are more efficient, and rated higher for innovation than America is. And it could be said that they're more efficient and have higher innovation because of their higher taxes and regulations not in-spite of it.

You do get that though right? You keep saying these almost religious statements about Obama being anti business when empirically the facts don't bear it out.

03-10-2017 , 05:12 PM

#3396

bahbahmickey

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All this obama v goaTRUMP also ignores how during obama's presidency they had to keep interest rates artificial low. Now that we know goaTRUMP is taking over all of a sudden everyone feels a little more comfortable about the economy and we are projected to have more rate hikes than planned.

03-10-2017 , 05:15 PM

#3397

microbet

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Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

thats a phallicy

That's good.

Did Kioshk hijack this account?

03-10-2017 , 05:16 PM

#3398

Huehuecoyotl

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I guess I should let the cat out of the bag and say that Obamacare being anti business because it kept the employer based health care is because it's "pro business" to question why are employers even dealing with healthcare in the first place? Why does Joe Factory Owner who knows f*ck all about anything but making widgets have to be a health care expert? Shouldn't we just let him do his widget thing? That'd be "pro business".

03-10-2017 , 05:17 PM

#3399

bahbahmickey

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Quote:

Originally Posted by einbert

Most Small Businesses Support Minimum Wage Hikes, Survey Says
https://www.aabacosmallbusiness.com/...mum-wage-hikes

77% of those polled pay their employees higher than MW. Why would he even poll companies that aren't that directly effected by the law?

Hold on this is really fascinating. So you are telling me small business owners that are already paying above MW to their employees want their competitors to pay their employees more so they have to raise their product prices. Wow. Thank you so much for uncovering this einbert.

03-10-2017 , 05:18 PM

#3400

juan valdez

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

so why did the market rally so hard after trump got elected? has the economy changed? this is my point. there is more to this than graphing the market during a presidency

the fact youre hung up on sample size is exactly my point. there is far more to this than looking at the market for 8 years. trump hasn't even had a chance to change the economy and the market rally has been substantial.

you and the person posting the graph are unable to articulate the strengths and weaknesses of the argument. what gets tiresome is you are either pretending to know and understand or are just displaying an absurd level of overconfidence in your understanding

this is why i suggest you articulate the strengths and weaknesses to posting the graph as an argument. not to change your mind, but so you can either demonstrate that you have any knowledge or understanding of the subject, or are you just posting some confirmation bias while totally overestimating how relevant the graph is

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