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02-20-2017 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
Pretty bad article, Hue.

The author builds a huge case against his argument that MW increases unemployment - citing the basic law of supply and demand and 10+ economists that support this idea and then he never really does anything to convince the reader that these economists are wrong. He just hand waves one of the most basic laws of economics by giving all the basic laws of economics a cute little nickname and leaves the reader to assume S&P applies to every product and service but labor.

Also, like most pro-minimum wagers he completely ignores the fact that nearly everyone not getting a raise due to the price fixing is worse off.
It's as if you took econ 101, and now you're so labored by the prospect of having to change your mind that you'd rather stay willfully ignorant.

Over 600 Economists Sign Letter In Support of $10.10 Minimum Wage
http://www.epi.org/minimum-wage-statement/

And in case you're thinking that these were forged, you can google some of the more high profile economists and their specific thoughts, notably:

Stiglitz touts the merits of an increased minimum wage
http://www.cnbc.com/2014/02/18/stigl...imum-wage.html

"The CBO analysis underestimated the benefits and overestimated the costs in several respects" said Stiglitz



It doesn't even matter if somewhere down the line it's refuted and the consensus swings back around against the min wage - the fact that you're trying to paint it as being a black and white issue reveals how little time you've spent reading and thinking about it.
02-20-2017 , 03:30 PM
Trump's own appointed NSC aides are criticizing the "dysfunction" in his administration and getting fired. Sad!

Quote:
The aide, Craig Deare, was serving as the NSC's senior director for Western Hemisphere Affairs. Earlier in the week, at a private, off-the-record roundtable hosted by the Woodrow Wilson Center for a group of about two dozen scholars, Deare harshly criticized the president and his chief strategist Steve Bannon and railed against the dysfunction paralyzing the Trump White House, according to a source familiar with the situation.
02-20-2017 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl
The article wasn't advocating FOR a raise of minimal wage, it was talking about how Econ 101ists cite an "fundamental law" that's completely abstracted out of the real word as an immutable law of what's going to happen. That there's evidence that it doesn't happen in certain situations in the actual real world should have made you pause to think, just as if someone told you planes can't fly because gravity pulls everything down and it's a fundamental law of the universe and you look outside and see a plane flying would make you pause to think, but it didn't and I didn't expect it to.





How do I know you either didn't read or didn't comprehend the article?
I read the whole article and understood it. I know the article was trying to discredit the idea that MW increases unemployment.

In this analogy anti-MW, like myself, aren't arguing planes can't fly because of gravity. We are arguing that it is more difficult to fly because of gravity. We don't believe having a MW will mean unemployment will be 100% (or it is impossible for a plane to fly) instead we believe less people will be employed because of MW (not all vehicles can fly but the planes best designed to fly will still be able to fly).

Citing a few certain situations where unemployment doesn't go up when MW goes up isn't proof that long-term a higher MW doesn't means more unemployment. There are other factors determining unemployment. For example if one state raises MW and cuts taxes and another state doesn't make any changes you can't point to the fact that both saw unemployment stay about equal as proof the raise in MW from the first state didn't increase unemployment. The same is true when we see a nationwide increase in MW if it is done during a time most economist were predicting an economic boom.
02-20-2017 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl
We're all dependent on the federal government. You more than anyone else.
You think I am more dependent on the government than others? Why?
02-20-2017 , 03:36 PM
Trump's frequent Mar-a-Lago vacations are crushing local businesses, going along with reporting earlier this week that Trump's Mar-a-Lago vacations have already - in just 1 month - totaled 1/10th the cost of Obama's 8 years of travel & vacations

Quote:
■ $200,000 in lost fuel sales at a large local airport in a single four-day visit this month.

■ 75 no-shows at a new restaurant in just one night.

■ $60,000 a day to pay overtime to sheriff’s deputies who guard the many closed roads, a tab that is about $1.5 million over all since the election.

■ 250 private flights grounded every day.
Quote:
Jorge Gonzalez, who owns SkyWords Advertising, said he might have to. He said his business had lost $42,000 because of Mr. Trump’s visits, during which his banner-advertising planes were grounded. He hopes to last through May, but his wife said that at this rate, 30 days was more likely.

“We are hoping his visits slow to once a month,” Mr. Gonzalez said.
02-20-2017 , 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abbaddabba
It's as if you took econ 101, and now you're so labored by the prospect of having to change your mind that you'd rather stay willfully ignorant.

Over 600 Economists Sign Letter In Support of $10.10 Minimum Wage
http://www.epi.org/minimum-wage-statement/

And in case you're thinking that these were forged, you can google some of the more high profile economists and their specific thoughts, notably:

Stiglitz touts the merits of an increased minimum wage
http://www.cnbc.com/2014/02/18/stigl...imum-wage.html

"The CBO analysis underestimated the benefits and overestimated the costs in several respects" said Stiglitz



It doesn't even matter if somewhere down the line it's refuted and the consensus swings back around against the min wage - the fact that you're trying to paint it as being a black and white issue reveals how little time you've spent reading and thinking about it.
I never said there weren't some economists who support a raise MW. It is extremely difficult to get 100% of all professionals in any field to agree one way is best to handle a problem when there isn't empirical evidence to prove what is best. MW is no different, like I said earlier, there are too many other variables to prove MW effects on unemployment.

The notion that an economy is better off giving more money to those with out than those with is also a very debatable point. Those that support the idea that giving money to the poor is good because they spend a higher % of their income almost always ignore the fact that the rich they are taking money from have less money to do things that also help the economy.
02-20-2017 , 03:46 PM
Goofy don't play into Trumps game of outrage overload. Focus on the core, major lapses, illegalities, scandals, and travesties. This is a lesson I wish more of the non-right would have learned after dealing with Rove.
02-20-2017 , 03:53 PM
Awesome that Trump brought up Sweden in his speech. Now everyone is talking about it and believe me our government does not want that. They can only bend the truth so far.
02-20-2017 , 03:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deuces McKracken
Goofy don't play into Trumps game of outrage overload.
To be clear, I'm not outraged about all or even most of the things I post here. Like, the NSC aide resigning above - more just funny than anything else, how hard could it possibly be to hire people that aren't chewing you out behind your back within weeks? Given how many deluded Trumpkins there are ITT who want to ignore all evidence of what a moronic clown the president is, I think it's important to highlight the full depth of his total incompetence and buffoonery.

Lastly for now, here is a WaPo article that perfectly captures people like mongo, for any of us that wish to get a window into their minds: Trump supporters see a successful president — and are frustrated with critics who don’t

Quote:
Those who journeyed to Trump’s Saturday evening event on Florida’s Space Coast said that since the election, they have unfriended some of their liberal relatives or friends on Facebook. They don’t understand why major media outlets don’t see the same successful administration they have been cheering on. And they’re increasingly frustrated that Democrats — and some Republicans — are too slow to approve some of the president’s nominees and too quick to protest his every utterance.

“They’re stonewalling everything that he’s doing because they’re just being babies about it,” said Patricia Melani, 56, a Jersey native who now lives here and attended her third Trump rally Saturday. “All the loudmouths? They need to let it go. Let it go. Shut their mouths and let the man do what he’s got to do. We all shut our mouths when Obama got in the second time around, okay? So that’s what really needs to be done.”
LOL yeah, that happened, the GOP totally shut their mouths when Obama won in 2012

There's a massive gulf between reality and the things they believe are true:

Quote:
Several people said they would have liked to see more coverage of a measure that Trump signed Thursday that rolled back a last-minute Obama regulation that would have restricted coal mines from dumping debris in nearby streams. At the signing, Trump was joined by coal miners in hard hats.

“If he hadn’t gotten into office, 70,000 miners would have been put out of work,” Patricia Nana, a 42-year-old naturalized citizen from Cameroon. “I saw the ceremony where he signed that bill, giving them their jobs back, and he had miners with their hard hats and everything — you could see how happy they were.”

The regulation actually would have cost relatively few mining jobs and would have created nearly as many new jobs on the regulatory side, according to a government report — an example of the frequent distance between Trump’s rhetoric, which many of his supporters wholeheartedly believe, and verifiable facts.
And why are they so uninformed?

Quote:
Melani, for example, gets most of her news from talk radio — “I listen to Herman Cain on my way into work, I have Sean [Hannity] on my way home,” she said — and Fox News.

She and her husband were well-versed on hold-ups with the president’s Cabinet nominees and legal arguments for the now-frozen travel ban. But they didn’t know much about the resignation of Trump’s national security adviser Michael Flynn on Monday amid accusations that he improperly discussed U.S. sanctions with the Russian ambassador — and then withheld that information from Vice President Pence and other top officials.
02-20-2017 , 04:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
The 2 main goals of MW are 1) to create a group of people dependent on the federal government (via welfare, etc) and 2) to get people who don't understand economics to vote Dem so they can feel like they are helping people.
That's an outlandish conspiracy theory. I have to assume you are joking. Do you know that people on minimum wage, because that wage is too low, are forced onto government aid to meet requirements of basic survival? That means minimum wage is not even a stand-alone subsistence wage, as in if their were no government support these workers wouldn't even be able to make it to work. The implication of that is the complete opposite of what you are saying.

Here are some candidates for basic constraints of the system which I am curious if you disagree:

1) There is a certain minimum standard of living which all people willing to work hard should have, based on the total national GDP.

2) People will have children no matter what their economic prospects are.

3) We should ensure, to some degree, that children born into any economic strata have a decent chance for mobility through economic strata based on their native potential/ability.
02-20-2017 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
I never said there weren't some economists who support a raise MW. It is extremely difficult to get 100% of all professionals in any field to agree one way is best to handle a problem when there isn't empirical evidence to prove what is best. MW is no different, like I said earlier, there are too many other variables to prove MW effects on unemployment.

There are almost a dozen nobel laureates on the list. You can't get 100% consensus on anything - that doesn't mean that peoples opinions are all equally valid.

There are too many variables to accurately estimate the impact of MW on employment levels but I would think everyone can agree that using only legal jobs misrepresents the figure. Under the table economies are common and efficient enough to pick up a lot of slack. This is one of many issues raised by critics of the CBO article (suggesting 10.10 would be even more favorable for low income people than the paper concluded) - a paper that was already kind of on the fence wrt a min wage of 10.10.

Quote:
The notion that an economy is better off giving more money to those with out than those with is also a very debatable point. Those that support the idea that giving money to the poor is good because they spend a higher % of their income almost always ignore the fact that the rich they are taking money from have less money to do things that also help the economy.
The people who say min wage is good because poor people spend are as clueless as people who say that tax cuts for the rich are good because they create jobs with it.

The benefit has nothing to do with the impact it would have on GDP - it's a distributional issue.
02-20-2017 , 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
I read the whole article and understood it. I know the article was trying to discredit the idea that MW increases unemployment.

In this analogy anti-MW, like myself, aren't arguing planes can't fly because of gravity. We are arguing that it is more difficult to fly because of gravity. We don't believe having a MW will mean unemployment will be 100% (or it is impossible for a plane to fly) instead we believe less people will be employed because of MW (not all vehicles can fly but the planes best designed to fly will still be able to fly).

Citing a few certain situations where unemployment doesn't go up when MW goes up isn't proof that long-term a higher MW doesn't means more unemployment. There are other factors determining unemployment. For example if one state raises MW and cuts taxes and another state doesn't make any changes you can't point to the fact that both saw unemployment stay about equal as proof the raise in MW from the first state didn't increase unemployment. The same is true when we see a nationwide increase in MW if it is done during a time most economist were predicting an economic boom.
Seems like we are in agreement. If there were a perfect market then everyone would agree that increasing the minimum wage would increase unemployment, but since we aren't, raising the minimum wage doesn't, ipso facto, raise unemployment and therefor raising the minimum wage isn't, ipso facto, a bad idea. There are, of course, other methods to increase the welbeing of the impoverished.

Last edited by Huehuecoyotl; 02-20-2017 at 05:17 PM.
02-20-2017 , 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
You think I am more dependent on the government than others? Why?
If someone walks on your property, who do you call? When you need a contract enforced who do you call? The state. You're not independent, your illusion of independence from the state is ironically only possible because of your dependence on the state.

Last edited by Huehuecoyotl; 02-20-2017 at 05:10 PM.
02-20-2017 , 05:15 PM
The folks demolishing folks' healthcare systems and voting franchise quivering about the minimum wage moving. Why work, work for them with that kind of attitude?
02-20-2017 , 06:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deuces McKracken
That's an outlandish conspiracy theory. I have to assume you are joking. Do you know that people on minimum wage, because that wage is too low, are forced onto government aid to meet requirements of basic survival? That means minimum wage is not even a stand-alone subsistence wage, as in if their were no government support these workers wouldn't even be able to make it to work. The implication of that is the complete opposite of what you are saying.

Here are some candidates for basic constraints of the system which I am curious if you disagree:

1) There is a certain minimum standard of living which all people willing to work hard should have, based on the total national GDP.

2) People will have children no matter what their economic prospects are.

3) We should ensure, to some degree, that children born into any economic strata have a decent chance for mobility through economic strata based on their native potential/ability.
I understand some people on MW still get assistance from the government. That doesn't mean we should increase MW to force companies to pay them more. It isn't the job of a corporation to make sure everyone gets a live-able wage (whatever that may be).

1. Sure, but I think everyone's definition of standard of living is different. I don't think corporations should be forced to provide this standard of living (depending on what it is).
2. Yes, some people will have kids no matter their situation. However, others won't. Btw- I want to get rid of all incentives to have kids, get married or buy a house including tax deductions but that is another story for another day.
3. Yes, to some degree but to what degree is of course the question.
02-20-2017 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abbaddabba
It's as if you took econ 101, and now you're so labored by the prospect of having to change your mind that you'd rather stay willfully ignorant.

Over 600 Economists Sign Letter In Support of $10.10 Minimum Wage
http://www.epi.org/minimum-wage-statement/
LOL a liberal group, hardly surprising.


Quote:
And in case you're thinking that these were forged, you can google some of the more high profile economists and their specific thoughts, notably:

Stiglitz touts the merits of an increased minimum wage
http://www.cnbc.com/2014/02/18/stigl...imum-wage.html

"The CBO analysis underestimated the benefits and overestimated the costs in several respects" said Stiglitz



It doesn't even matter if somewhere down the line it's refuted and the consensus swings back around against the min wage - the fact that you're trying to paint it as being a black and white issue reveals how little time you've spent reading and thinking about it.
Stieglitz is pretty far out on the left too. The problem with this is that it is all hand waving at best. Perhaps Stieglitz has a model that he uses that he can compare to the CBO model outputs and we can discuss the models themselves.

Your take on the underground economy taking up the slack is completely unsubstantiated.

My view on the minimum wage issue is that it is best addressed at the state and local level. One obvious reason being that the cost of living in NYC is far different than the cost of living in Cedar Rapids, IA.


Why not just make the minimum wage $50 an hour if doesn't affect the number of jobs in the economy? I am sure you won't claim that the underground economy can pick up that slack. I am pretty sure you'll claim that there is a threshold where the minimum wage does have a significant affect on the economy. What is that threshold? Appeals to authority from liberal economists doing a bunch of hand waving at best doesn't say much. The CBO models aren't above scrutiny for sure. A more useful and meaningful criticism would be to offer some ideas about specifically where the CBO model is wrong.
02-20-2017 , 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl
Seems like we are in agreement. If there were a perfect market then everyone would agree that increasing the minimum wage would increase unemployment, but since we aren't, raising the minimum wage doesn't, ipso facto, raise unemployment and therefor raising the minimum wage isn't, ipso facto, a bad idea. There are, of course, other methods to increase the welbeing of the impoverished.
The problem with your argument is that you aren't asking yourself if all else is the same is unemployment higher because of MW.

In my previous post if the first state didn't raise MW but still cut taxes they could have lower unemployment.
02-20-2017 , 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl
If someone walks on your property, who do you call? When you need a contract enforced who do you call? The state. You're not independent, your illusion of independence from the state is ironically only possible because of your dependence on the state.
I never said I was independent from the government. Where the hell is this coming from?
02-20-2017 , 07:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
The problem with your argument is that you aren't asking yourself if all else is the same is unemployment higher because of MW.

In my previous post if the first state didn't raise MW but still cut taxes they could have lower unemployment.
A but too simplistic. Whether or not the MW will raise unemployment depends on a myriad of factors not just taxes and the minimum wage
02-20-2017 , 07:51 PM
I probably look at MW way to simple. If the Republicans are against, then don't complain about welfare for these individuals. We all know there are winners and losers in capitalism. If we want our stuff cheap, we should not mind those people making lower wages receiving some type of assistance from the government.
02-20-2017 , 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl
A but too simplistic. Whether or not the MW will raise unemployment depends on a myriad of factors not just taxes and the minimum wage
I know there are literally thousands of variables that effect unemployment. That isn't what I'm saying. That is why I said all else equal earlier.
02-20-2017 , 10:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
LOL a liberal group, hardly surprising.

Stieglitz is pretty far out on the left too. The problem with this is that it is all hand waving at best. Perhaps Stieglitz has a model that he uses that he can compare to the CBO model outputs and we can discuss the models themselves.
I guess no matter how accomplished/distinguished a person may be, as long as a guy on the internet is ready to dismiss them as being liberal we might as well toss that out.

Stiglitz? Arrow? Solow? Make way for Adios.

Quote:
Your take on the underground economy taking up the slack is completely unsubstantiated.
The premise that a larger number of motivated unemployed people will lead to a larger number of them working in underground economies doesn't seem particularly controversial.

Quote:
My view on the minimum wage issue is that it is best addressed at the state and local level. One obvious reason being that the cost of living in NYC is far different than the cost of living in Cedar Rapids, IA.
In an ideal world. Or you could set a federal min that's benchmarked at places with the lowest cost of living, and then give individual states the ability to up it in case you're concerned with some states opting out on account of corporate influence or charlatan politician who writes off anyone who disagrees with their gut intuition as left wing / right wing nuts.

Quote:
Why not just make the minimum wage $50 an hour if doesn't affect the number of jobs in the economy? I am sure you won't claim that the underground economy can pick up that slack. I am pretty sure you'll claim that there is a threshold where the minimum wage does have a significant affect on the economy. What is that threshold? Appeals to authority from liberal economists doing a bunch of hand waving at best doesn't say much. The CBO models aren't above scrutiny for sure. A more useful and meaningful criticism would be to offer some ideas about specifically where the CBO model is wrong.
I didn't claim it doesn't reduce jobs. I said that only measuring legal jobs underestimates the true impact. They had their own criticisms that you can look into on your own if you want.

Why not $50? Because the job losses grow substantially / probably not in a linear fashion, and the people who're benefiting from the higher wages already realize most of the improvement in their quality of life simply by getting a bit further away from the poverty line so they can save some of their income for the future.
02-20-2017 , 10:16 PM
The stupid part is most of the economists on the list who're in support of the federal min wage are probably against it if the issue is framed differently. I would guess that support for it mostly stems from the fact that it's the most politically expedient way to get money to poor people.
02-20-2017 , 10:16 PM
02-21-2017 , 12:48 AM
Bah bah ,

Until you understand marginal tax rates your thoughts on the minimum wage are not going to be taken seriously. Such a good thing you aren't giving financial advice anymore. Let me guess, you are against the fiduciary rule?

      
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