LMAO, go back to SMP *******.

This isn't your safe space anymore, woo woo, you can't kick anyone out.

You're the only one looking for a safe space, you are just a joke dumbass.

I would love to know what Wil won. His claim to fame includes having used the USC/LATimes tracking poll to make his prediction of Trump winning, despite that poll being wrong by 5 full points, having predicted "Trump 52, Hillary 45" (just a bit off), and using anecdotal stuff like seeing lawn signs and middle-PA word of mouth as evidence Trump would dominate the Midwest.

LMAO??? What are you, 12?

You are allowed to express your opinion here without censure. Welcome back to PU, woo!

Why does it matter? He picked the winner, and obviously you didn't.

$9,000

So?

It isn't even about being on the right side of the outcome. AWice made the point that his read on some things were wrong, it was much closer than he was anticipating, his analysis was off, and he was fortunate to have the outcome come out in his direction.

It isn't 'haha liberals Trump won everything you think is invalidated derrrrp!'. I mean sure some people may have that view, but they are idiots of course.

But what it is, is just HOW WRONG so so many of the political junkies here were in their analysis leading up to the election. And not just here, but across much of the media, political hubs, 'experts', etc.

I myself thought Hillary was going to win, and that feeling strengthened as the election drew closer, and even more so after it was clear Trump was not going to be winning NV or Colorado. But I was at least acknowledging the large amount of uncertainty in the race, how things were different this year than in the past, that the surprise Trump victory would come out of Michigan and the Rust Belt, etc.

Sam Wang, Huffington Post, Adanthar, Goofball, etc etc missed the mark by a very, very large margin. Their analysis was worthless. When I pointed out that Goofball's model was assigning a higher probability to Clinton winning Montana than Trump winning NC, I was attacked! Absurd.

Someone that gives more of a damn could make a thread titled 'Expert Political Analysis leading up to the 2016 Election' and just fill it full of countless posts from those on this site that were unequivocally terrible.

But hey, fortunate for the world those people lack integrity and will continue to grace us with their insight and opinion (about which they are so right!)

Yeah, Nate Silver was proven the real winner in all this. I hear a lot of Trumpsters laughing at him, and I'm like wtf he's the only one who gave Trump a freaking chance! He's got a pretty good podcast too.

Yes I have made this same point more or less. But still doesn't mean that Nate's model doesn't have significant flaws. We don't know and it will take more elections, more years. I'd bet some serious coin that Nate is tweaking his model significantly after this election. Obviously people are hard to predict and people are lousy at predicting the future.

@dan - good post

Wow.

Very in-depth.

People who pick the 3-number lotto based on being convinced that their grandson's birthday is a lucky number are using ******ed thinking but occasionally luck into being right.

The Shy Tory effect is a rather difficult thing to account for. It's become increasingly obvious in the last three weeks that people were lying about, or concealing, their voting intentions the entire time.

Yea, I'm thinking the ******ed thinking here is believing the biased polls and media that the Beast would win...

A better question would be to ask what wil's return was for the $9k. Assuming Nate Silver's model was right about Trump having a 30% chance going into election day (which I do think was correct), if you could beat +234 on Trump or -234 on Hillary before the results started to come in, then you were the sharp, otherwise not.

I got slightly better than +600 for betting on Trump, and that was before vote counting began.

It doesn't matter 'cus results. I bet on the Cubs to win the World Series because I had a dream where a goat told me the curse was over. I won, bitches! All of you who thought that taking advice from a dream-goat was stupid are getting 8x10 glossies of my money-titties. Same goat just told me that the Raiders are going to win the SB this year. How does it feel to be wrong about everything including idiotic tips about not texting while driving. I CAN MULTITASK LIKE A REAL MAN, BETA CUCKS.

The "biased polls" got the national popular vote pretty much right. (Off by ~1.2%). Better than 2012.

Don't pretend you've never texted while driving you old cuckleberry.

cuck: any weak minded liberal
cuckamamie: 5ive's posting habits
cuckbait: Hyperventilating media articles that are pure bull****, that cucks believe are true
cuckleberry: A particularly offensive type of cuck

Such a great word, so versatile.

Nah, as tempting as it is to troll the unbearible sjleftists, I'll not be adopting alt-right slang into my everyday. They haven't pushed me that far. Besides, cuckleberry would describe a merely odd and mostly harmless cuck, imo. One who likes to get into adventures with his buddies Tom Sobber and N-ever mind

Yea, not really relevant here. If you ignored the electoral college, like the media, it shows how ignorant you really are.

I don't drive, so I actually haven't.

I'm pretty dumb. Can you explain how the polls were biased if they approximately the right result?

Because the national popular vote was totally meaningless and irrelevant to the outcome of the election. Therefore any polls on the same were too.

Hope that helps.