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Old 11-28-2014, 08:12 AM   #201
JimAfternoon
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Yeah, well I mean for jiggs' latest version, which I'm sure he'll tell us is the real deal this time.
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Old 11-28-2014, 09:55 AM   #202
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Part of the problem is that the production and supply of oil is so volatile in the short term and the economic/technological forces that we're talking about are very long term (and somewhat unpredictable) processes - you're always going to have windows of time that people like Jiggs can cherrypick to try to prove their argument.

It seems quite likely that in the next 5-10 years oil hits a price like $140/barrel. Jiggs (et al) can then turn around and compare that price to today's price and talk about how the end is near. Of course when prices are this low - they talk about it as a temporary thing caused by yadda, yadda, yadda.
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Old 11-28-2014, 11:34 AM   #203
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

I remember my posting years ago that lowering the cost of a barrel of oil would increase the USA reliance on foreign oil and that it is exactly the Saudi view with their campaign to lower costs by pumping more oil. Lower production costs ftw. However, the Saudi strategy won't kill the oil boom in the USA. First of all there is oil being pumped at a significantly lower production cost in the USA than $70 a barrel. Second the costs for getting oil out of the ground are dynamic, innovation in lowering those costs will certainly continue. A lot of the 'Peak Oil' talk was generated years ago from beliefs that oil production costs were static IE there would be essentially no technical innovation. That has been proven to be completely false. Third a lot of OPEC countries absolutely need much higher prices for oil now. Fourth there are micro economic reasons. The idea that companies immediately cease producing something immediately or soon thereafter when it becomes unprofitable is just wrong.

The oil companies in the USA have always been fairly cautious in their capital investment in my view. This is due to the idea that OPEC could destroy those investments by producing more oil and thus lowering prices. The oil companies are scaling back their investment some but are maintaining investment such that production will still grow but grow at a slower rate. Here is a pretty good article on this:

Falling Oil Prices affecting US Oil Companies

If the USA was really serious about reducing their reliance on OPEC significantly they would substantially increase the subsidization of domestic production. Not a move I'd advocate due to other problems that presents but is an option.

Last edited by adios; 11-28-2014 at 11:39 AM.
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Old 11-28-2014, 12:22 PM   #204
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

68.77/barrel, THE PEAK IS HERE!

****, what if we included the fact that PETRODOLLARS has undergone hyperinflation?
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Old 11-28-2014, 07:25 PM   #205
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Past predictions failing:
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
Here's our own tax-funded Pentagon finally admitting Peak is here on page 29 of their annual Joint Operating Environment report:


ENERGY SUMMARY

To generate the energy required worldwide by the 2030s would require us to find an additional 1.4 MBD every year until then.

During the next twenty-five years, coal, oil, and natural gas will remain indispensable to meet energy requirements. The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields.

At present, investment in oil production is only beginning to pick up, with the result that production could reach a prolonged plateau. By 2030, the world will require production of 118 MBD, but energy producers may only be producing 100 MBD unless there are major changes in current investment and
drilling capacity.

By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.

Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity. Efficient hybrid, electric, and flex-fuel vehicles will likely dominate light-duty vehicle sales by 2035 and much of the
growth in gasoline demand may be met through increases in biofuels production. Renewed interest in nuclear power and green energy sources such as solar power, wind, or geothermal may blunt rising prices for fossil fuels should business interest become actual investment. However, capital costs in some power-generation and distribution sectors are also rising, reflecting global demand for alternative energy sources and hindering their ability to compete effectively with relatively cheap fossil fuels. Fossil fuels will very likely remain the predominant energy source going forward.
Does anyone have a grasp of what a 10 million barrel per day shortfall will do to industrial societies? And no, shale tar sands, nuclear, and any other combination of alternatives will not make a dent in that disparity.

And, last but not least, here's Obama's Department of Energy admitting depletion is about to begin:

Washington considers a decline of world oil production as of 2011
The DoE April 2009 round-table, untitled “Meeting the Growing Demand for Liquid (fuels)“, was semi-public. Yet it remained unnoticed and unjustly, as it put forward forecasts that are far more pessimistic than any analysis the DoE has ever delivered.

Page 8 of the presentation document of the round-table, a graph shows that the DoE is expecting a decline of the total of all known sources of liquid fuels supplies after 2011.

The graph labels as “unidentified” the additional supply projects needed to fill in a gap that is expected to grow after 2011 between rising demand and decline of known sources of supply that the DoE supposes will start that year. The declining production foreseen by the DoE concerns the total of existing sources of liquid fuels plus the new production projects that are supposed to come on-stream before 2012.

The DoE predicts that the decline of identified sources of supply will be steady and sharp : - 2 percent a year, from 87 million barrels per day (Mbpd) in 2011 to just 80 Mbpd in 2015. At that time, the world demand for oil and other liquid fuels should have climbed up to 90 Mbpd, according to the presentation document.

“Unidentified” additional liquid fuels projects would therefore have to fill in a 10 Mbpd gap between supplies and demand within less than 5 years. 10 Mbpd is almost the equivalent of the oil production of Saudi Arabia, world top producer with 10.8 Mbpd.


Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
more "preaching"

http://www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau230410.htm


Look at this graph and be afraid. It does not come from Earth First. It does not come from the Sierra Club. It was not drawn by Socialists or Nazis or Osama Bin Laden or anyone from Goldman-Sachs. If you are a Republican Tea-Partier, rest assured it does not come from a progressive Democrat. And vice versa. It was drawn by the United States Department of Energy, and the United States military's Joint Forces Command concurs with the overall picture.

What does it imply? The supply of the world's most essential energy source is going off a cliff. Not in the distant future,but in a year and a half. Production of all liquid fuels, including oil, will drop within 20 years to half what it is today. And the difference needs to be made up with "unidentified projects," which one of the world's leading petroleum geologists says is just a "euphemism for rank shortage," and the world's foremost oil industry banker says is "faith based."

The original graph is available here http://www.eia.doe.gov/conference/20...3/Sweetnam.pdf

This graph was prepared for a DOE meeting in spring, 2009. Take a good look at what it says, assuming it to be correct:

1`. Conventional oil will be almost all gone in 20 years, and there is nothing known to replace it.

2.. Production of petroleum from existing conventional sources has been dropping at a rate slightly over 4% per year for at least a year and will continue to do so for the indefinite future.

3. The graph implies that we are past the peak of production and that there are750 billion barrels of conventional oil left (the areas under the "conventionals" portion of the graph, extrapolated to the right as an exponentional). Assuming that the remaining reserves were 900 billion or more at the halfway point, then we are at least 150 billion barrels, or 5 years, past the midpoint.

4. Total petroleum production from all presently known sources, conventional and unconventional, will remain "flat" at approximately 83 mbpd for the next two years and then will proceed to drop for the foreseeable future, at first slowly but by 4% per year after 2015.

5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years. The United States Joint Forces Command concurs with these specific findings. http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storya...JOE_2010_o.pdf, at 31. 10 million bpd is equivalent to half the United States' entire consumption. To make up the difference, the world would have to find another Saudi Arabia and get it into full production in five years, an impossibility. See The Oil Drum, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5154
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Old 11-28-2014, 07:25 PM   #206
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
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Old 11-28-2014, 07:27 PM   #207
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado View Post
I don't see how the rubber is meeting the road now if it hasn't before. Like basically all of the past predictions have been proven wrong or at least not a major problem.
wrong, as ever...

Please identify the "past predictions" regarding peak oil you might be alluding to ... You don't get to assert the diagnosis is "wrong" by lazily identifying some one group's flawed analysis any more than you get to do so by conjuring up some straw man "prediction" that was never given.

M. King Hubbert always identified peak production as occurring somewhere very close to 40 years after peak discovery... that was true for U.S. production in 1971, after peak field discovery rates here in the early 30s.

Global peak discovery of conventional fields occurred in the mid 60s. Sure enough, global conventional production reached its plateau in 2005.

The Club of Rome's "Limits to Growth" in the early 70s pegged the middle of last decade for peak, and that wound up being correct for conventional production. It is true that triple-as-expensive, half-as-efficient unconventional crude has maintained tepid total liquids growth and delayed the fallout of overall peak (at a cost of global GDP growth slowing considerably), ... however, the growing consensus is that this "revolution" is a very short-lived blip that has done nothing but kick the can down the road a few years.

As for me, anyone who has seen my work on this forum, and others, are aware that I've pointed to 2015 as the year the game would be up. If global production didn't begin decline, then at least the U.S. shale oil industry would begin contracting. ... I arrived at 2015 based on the following entities' lead:

The Energy of Nations: Risk Blindness and the Road to Renaissance
by Jeremy Leggett
".... if my suppositions are correct so far ... the world faces either an oil shock by the end of 2015 and a financial crash soon after, or a second financial crash before then, followed by a delayed oil crash some years later."
U.K. Energy Research Centre
In 2009, the UK Energy Research Centre concluded that "A global peak is inevitable. The timing is uncertain, but the window is rapidly narrowing."
Former IEA oil expert: Oil will decline shortly after 2015
OLIVIER RECH: "we will have to face a decline of the production of all forms of liquid fuels somewhere between 2015 to 2020. This decline will not necessarily be rapid, however, but it will be a decline, that much seems clear."
World Bank Warns Of Global Oil Crunch By 2015
Addressing the ECSSR conference in the UAE capital, Dr Mamdouh Salameh, Consultant on Oil and Energy Affairs for the World Bank, said: "Unfortunately, the current alignment of these fundamentals can only lead to a severe tightening of the oil market. Other major factors impacting on the global oil market are China and the declining influence of OPEC. An analysis of these fundamentals indicates that a severe oil crunch could be in the offing, probably by 2015 or thereabout
U S Joint Forces Command, Joint Operating Environment Report, Feb., 2010, pg. 17
“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.”
Low oil prices to bite into 2015 U.S. shale growth: IEA
"If prices remain at these lows, this may result in a decline in U.S. upstream capital expenditures by 10 percent in 2015, which will have (an) implication for future production growth," Birol said.
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Old 11-28-2014, 07:31 PM   #208
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

LOL at ikes essentially being a cheerleader for Keynesian cash injections into unconventional synthetic oil production, the only thing keeping meager production growth going... the irony is delicious.

who knew the forum's most irrational con would cry victory over what is essentially a debt-infused ponzi scheme...

Last edited by JiggsCasey; 11-28-2014 at 07:39 PM.
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Old 11-28-2014, 07:32 PM   #209
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
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Old 11-28-2014, 07:45 PM   #210
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

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Old 11-28-2014, 07:49 PM   #211
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
I don't really see how that's wrong... considering the illness of the global economy, it's clear to me that supply can't really meet demand.

The dip in prices lately is more a reflection of what consumers can afford, and that's not good... producers need it much higher, so that doesn't bode well for near-term production totals when more and more of these small shale companies start closing up shop... and they will.

oops... yup... still an equation that spells out peak

Last edited by JiggsCasey; 11-28-2014 at 07:59 PM.
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Old 11-28-2014, 08:39 PM   #212
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
Listen dumb****.... the whole argument for why 'peak oil' was and is ****ing stupid can be boiled down to two reasons:

1) We can use less oil
2) We can find more oil

You don't get to say LOOK BROS I WAS RIGHT YOUR ARGUMENT ABOUT FINDING MORE WAS EXACTLY right.

****ing tard have some god damn shame and slink away.
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Old 11-28-2014, 09:49 PM   #213
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Lol at Jiggs arguing he's always posted 2015 was the day of reckoning, but at least its on record now. Although I guess 2012 was before and that doesn't seem to have stopped the Jiggs train.

At least he was right in the FDIC thread that got bumped last week, that economic recovery definitely stalled out in 2009.
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Old 11-28-2014, 10:05 PM   #214
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...-to-shale.html

Quote:
In the U.S., output is expected either to remain flat or rise by almost 1 million barrels a day next year, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency and ITG.

That’s because only about 4 percent of shale production needs $80 or more to be profitable. Most drilling in the Bakken formation, one of the main drivers of shale oil output, returns cash at or below $42 a barrel, the IEA estimates.
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Old 11-29-2014, 12:11 AM   #215
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

It is scary to think how much money jiggs has lost betting on peak oil
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Old 11-29-2014, 01:00 AM   #216
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Jiggs, thanks for proving my point about cherry picking data by emphasizing 'conventional' oil and blaming Obama for manipulating the economy.

Hint: our whole point isn't that we know exactly what's going to happen in the future. It's that technology will both increase our possible supplies of oil and decrease our demand. And that the free market has many ways to make sure this happens.

So every time you have a prediction fail because of reason X or reason Y realize that's exactly part of what we're saying.

Ike's, nice work on the quotes. I think Jiggs has learned his lesson and now goes well out of his way to avoid actual predictions.
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Old 11-29-2014, 04:18 AM   #217
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
Listen dumb****.... the whole argument for why 'peak oil' was and is ****ing stupid can be boiled down to two reasons:

1) We can use less oil
2) We can find more oil
we can put you at the very front of the naive express...

Not that it isn't always amusing watching a con unravel over "liberal" drilling restrictions while conversely dismissing the importance of oil in the first place.

1) we can (and will) use less, and experience great dislocation to complex societies... as you'll learn some day, when you're able to look beyond star spangled America and be honest about slowing global growth.

2) we can find plenty more synthetic "oil" that is 3x as expensive to produce, and about half as efficient to burn, anyway...

But good job exceeding Gambool levels of ignorance on this topic, and remaining mired in a platform of "no problem, keep drilling everywhere."

Too bad countless petrol geologist (and economists) much smarter than you know better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
You don't get to say LOOK BROS I WAS RIGHT YOUR ARGUMENT ABOUT FINDING MORE WAS EXACTLY right./
Was this English? I'm not even sure what you're trying to convey here. Type slower, use punctuation and avoid the caps lock button.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
****ing tard have some god damn shame and slink away.
Read more. Anger less. You suck at this.
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Old 11-29-2014, 04:40 AM   #218
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LetsGambool View Post
Lol at Jiggs arguing he's always posted 2015 was the day of reckoning, but at least its on record now. Although I guess 2012 was before and that doesn't seem to have stopped the Jiggs train.
LOL!!! I'd challenge you to an exile bet, but it's never a contest and history has shown you have a tendency to weasel out of them.

But do go ahead and eat an enormous bag of ****s.

1-30-14:
We will reduce our carbon output soon enough, though not by choice. When the conventional oil production begins to fall off the cliff (predicted in 2015 by the Pentagon in 2008) and we realize the shale "boom" is a myth, it will be game over for the global ponzi scheme.
7-13-13
Well, if the 2008 and 2010 Pentagon JOE reports are one signal among many, the foreseen point of global decline was always to begin in 2015, extending to perhaps 2015-2020 due to the very temporary shale "boom."
6-25-13
The new report predicts that far from growing inexorably, "light tight oil production in the USA will peak between 2015 and 2017, followed by a steep decline", while shale gas production will most likely peak in 2015.
5-8-11
“From now to 2015, the market and the oil industry will be severely tested. In the next five to ten years, oil production from non-OPEC producers will reach a peak before starting to decline, for lack of sufficient reserves. As each day passes, new evidence of this fact appears. At the same time the peak of the economic expansion phase of China will take place. The two events will coincide: the explosion of the growth of the Chinese demand, and the fall in production of non-OPEC oil. Will our oil system be it able to answer this challenge, that is the question.” “If production does not increase in Iraq in an exponential way between now and 2015, we have a very big problem, even if Saudi Arabia meets its obligations. The figures are very simple, you do not need to be an expert. It is enough to know how to do a subtraction. China will grow very quickly, India also, and even Saudi Arabia projections of the 3 Mb/day will not be enough to meet the rise of Chinese demand.”
2-9-11
What matters is that peak is here, and decline is soon to follow. And as it pertains to your request, one thing I can accurately predict is that the longer the global economy denies the situation and inflates reserve figures, and lends credit based on the assanine assumption of "ever more tomorrow," the harder the fall will ultimately be when decline begins (predicted by 2015 by the JOE).
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Old 11-29-2014, 04:44 AM   #219
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by samsonh View Post
It is scary to think how much money jiggs has lost betting on peak oil
not a dime... but do keep working at your soul reading. ... it's only up from here.
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Old 11-29-2014, 05:12 AM   #220
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JimAfternoon View Post
Reports vary, including those from industry mouthpiece IEA. I seriously doubt that's correct, or an accurate reflection of what they claimed. It likely is profitable at that cost when a sweet-spot well is first drilled, but not after a year or two of swift decline. They die out breathtakingly fast, and far more literature exists suggesting a break-even price quite a bit higher than "$42."

Nonetheless, from your own link:
ITG estimates it will take six months before lower prices slow production growth from U.S. shale, which is responsible for propelling the country’s production to the highest in more than three decades. ...

With a sustained price drop to $60 a barrel, North American shale drilling would be especially challenged in emerging fields such as some in Ohio and Louisiana, where costs are at the highest early in development, according to Citigroup and ITG.

Drilling in Western Canada may drop by 15 percent in 2015, according to a report yesterday by Patricia Mohr, an economist at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto.

Among the worst hit shale producers will be smaller operators that rely heavily on debt and are focused on newer, higher-cost areas.
Meanwhile, about that Bakken field, and it's paltry 8B of technically recoverable reserves:
Production growth from the Bakken tight oil formation is expected to moderate in the next 2 years as older wells decline and new wells strain to offset natural production declines, analysis by Wood Mackenzie Ltd. shows.

Jonathan Garrett, upstream analyst for Wood Mackenzie, said the estimates take into account the steep declines seen in the initial years of production for any given well.

"Any time you have an unconventional well, whether it be in the Bakken or otherwise, the declines are pretty significant during the first year and you must drill more wells to offset those declines," Garrett told UOGR. "So we think that while production will continue to increase, the rate of growth will begin to slow a bit."
Once again:

Quote:
“Everybody is trying to put a very happy spin on their ability to weather $80 oil, but a lot of that is just smoke,” said Daniel Dicker, president of MercBloc Wealth Management Solutions with 25 years’ experience trading crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange. “The shale revolution doesn’t work at $80, period.”
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Old 11-29-2014, 05:37 AM   #221
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado View Post
Jiggs, thanks for proving my point about cherry picking data by emphasizing 'conventional' oil and blaming Obama for manipulating the economy.
Not really sure where I mentioned Obama, specifically.

I mentioned conventional oil because that's what modern industrial societies are built upon. It's easy reasoning that the most efficient, versatile and cost-effective energy source would be the obvious starting point. That's not "cherry picking," that basic arithmetic.

If there was a shortage of processors over 1 GHz, you couldn't exactly point to endless Commodore 64 technology as proof of a PC "glut." ... But that's essentially what you deep thinkers are attempting when you point to tight oil as any kind of game-changer.

Are you guys even aware of how much debt is leveraged in the shale industry? Considering their production returns dwindle by 40% within a year for the average $7 million well, it's not a rosie prospect for paying much of that back. We can all watch the fallout from shale closures together real soon. Enjoy!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado View Post
Hint: our whole point isn't that we know exactly what's going to happen in the future. It's that technology will both increase our possible supplies of oil and decrease our demand. And that the free market has many ways to make sure this happens.
Yes, we're all very aware of this claim, as it's been addressed a few dozen times already. Perhaps you're new.

The reality is that technology will never move fast enough to make up for production decline rates (it already isn't). Pretending you can strip mine and frack away exponentially greater regions of America (all while "conserving" better), in order to save global energy efficiency decline is really rather ridiculous.

Growth for modern capitalism requires ever greater energy consumption. You can't "conserve" and "innovate" your way to maintaining that growth. Doesn't work that way, and debt isn't the cure.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado View Post
So every time you have a prediction fail because of reason X or reason Y realize that's exactly part of what we're saying.
You guys have a tendency to trumpet the rare date failure (if it's off by so much as an hour), while utterly ignoring the abundant bulls eyes. It's what you do.

We were right about conventional peak. We'll be right bout unconventional peak for what has always been a short-lived industry blip in the overall timeline of oil production.

All that is left is demand destruction. In what ultimate form that destruction takes is anyone's guess, but the price drop is a clear symptom of the world's inability to afford it any higher. We'll let the "market" find the bottom some time next year, and then take a nice strong whiff of where production is at. Good luck.

Last edited by JiggsCasey; 11-29-2014 at 06:05 AM.
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Old 11-29-2014, 07:12 AM   #222
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
Quoted for lol Jiggs
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Old 11-29-2014, 10:04 AM   #223
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
we can put you at the very front of the naive express...

Not that it isn't always amusing watching a con unravel over "liberal" drilling restrictions while conversely dismissing the importance of oil in the first place.

1) we can (and will) use less, and experience great dislocation to complex societies... as you'll learn some day, when you're able to look beyond star spangled America and be honest about slowing global growth.
This is demonstrably untrue.
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2) we can find plenty more synthetic "oil" that is 3x as expensive to produce, and about half as efficient to burn, anyway...
Again, obviously untrue

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But good job exceeding Gambool levels of ignorance on this topic, and remaining mired in a platform of "no problem, keep drilling everywhere."
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
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Too bad countless petrol geologist (and economists) much smarter than you know better.
lulz your position is not mainstream son.


Quote:
Was this English? I'm not even sure what you're trying to convey here. Type slower, use punctuation and avoid the caps lock button.
lol you ****ing said look our 'normal' production is down, but production is up. That was exactly the argument your opponents use to say you're stupid.


Quote:
Read more. Anger less. You suck at this.
lulz k permabannee
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Old 11-29-2014, 10:26 AM   #224
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
This is demonstrably untrue.
which part? your incapacity to acknowledge global dislocation already underway? of your empty assertion that using less somehow oil won't slow growth?

You'll need to do a bit more than handwave, else we can confidently leave you safely on the pay no mind list.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
Again, obviously untrue
It's not more expensive? Or we'll find plenty more conventional? Again, flesh out your latest dumb guess.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years.
As I said, I don't see how this is necessarily wrong. Debt does wonders to mask shortfall, until it doesn't.

I'm fairly confident you don't even know what that means.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
lulz your position is not mainstream son.
LOL!!! Among whom? What demographic are we talking about? Religious conservatives? Free marketeers?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
lol you ****ing said look our 'normal' production is down, but production is up. That was exactly the argument your opponents use to say you're stupid.
Yup, you don't understand what's being discussed. It's clear now.

The word is conventional liquid crude vs. unconventional. There's an enormous difference in terms of net energy as well as the economics of production. Look it up, educate yourself, and work harder to not embarrass yourself time and time again.
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Old 11-29-2014, 10:29 AM   #225
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Re: LOL Row Coach... peak is still here.

Jiggs the USA and the entire western world has used less oil without terrible consequences. Efficiency is a *****. Shale oil doesn't cost 3x as much to produce and half as efficient to burn. Peak oil is not a position shared by geologists or science as a whole. You're a ****ing idiot.
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