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Originally Posted by jjshabado
Jiggs, thanks for proving my point about cherry picking data by emphasizing 'conventional' oil and blaming Obama for manipulating the economy.
Not really sure where I mentioned Obama, specifically.
I mentioned conventional oil because that's what modern industrial societies are built upon. It's easy reasoning that the most efficient, versatile and cost-effective energy source would be the obvious starting point. That's not "cherry picking," that basic arithmetic.
If there was a shortage of processors over 1 GHz, you couldn't exactly point to endless Commodore 64 technology as proof of a PC "glut." ... But that's essentially what you deep thinkers are attempting when you point to tight oil as any kind of game-changer.
Are you guys even aware of how much debt is leveraged in the shale industry? Considering their production returns dwindle by 40% within a year for the average $7 million well, it's not a rosie prospect for paying much of that back. We can all watch the fallout from shale closures together real soon. Enjoy!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado
Hint: our whole point isn't that we know exactly what's going to happen in the future. It's that technology will both increase our possible supplies of oil and decrease our demand. And that the free market has many ways to make sure this happens.
Yes, we're all very aware of this claim, as it's been addressed a few dozen times already. Perhaps you're new.
The reality is that technology will never move fast enough to make up for production decline rates (it already isn't). Pretending you can strip mine and frack away exponentially greater regions of America (all while "conserving" better), in order to save global energy efficiency decline is really rather ridiculous.
Growth for modern capitalism requires ever greater energy consumption. You can't "conserve" and "innovate" your way to maintaining that growth. Doesn't work that way, and debt isn't the cure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado
So every time you have a prediction fail because of reason X or reason Y realize that's exactly part of what we're saying.
You guys have a tendency to trumpet the rare date failure (if it's off by so much as an hour), while utterly ignoring the abundant bulls eyes. It's what you do.
We were right about conventional peak. We'll be right bout unconventional peak for what has always been a short-lived industry blip in the overall timeline of oil production.
All that is left is demand destruction. In what ultimate form that destruction takes is anyone's guess, but the price drop is a clear symptom of the world's inability to afford it any higher. We'll let the "market" find the bottom some time next year, and then take a nice strong whiff of where production is at. Good luck.
Last edited by JiggsCasey; 11-29-2014 at 06:05 AM.