lol ikes... who STILL doesn't understand what's driving the (temporary) price crash, and who clearly doesn't understand short-term "glut" vs. longer-term promise...

you are, by far, the dumbest regular in this thread

US Government Cuts 2015 Domestic Oil Production Forecast
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/...ecast?rss=true

The U.S. government on Tuesday cut its forecast for domestic oil production growth in 2015 by about 100,000 barrels per day and trimmed its forecast for global oil demand growth next year by 240,000 bpd.
...

World oil demand next year is now expected to grow by 880,000 bpd, the agency said on Tuesday. It had previously forecast the year-on-year increase at 1.12 million bpd.

The lower forecasts come amid a sharp slide in global oil markets, with the price of oil trading near five-year lows on a combination of global oversupply and lackluster demand.

Still optimistic, as the EIA always is. ... Expect more downward revisions as more and more new "projects" are shut down.

Jiggs, if you addressed it before than I am sorry, but could you run me through why to the price of oil could be too cheap? I get that if demand is higher than supply it might take some time to plan, finance and develop new fields so there might be some lag until the supply is back up, but I don't see this being a huge deal.

What's with the forked dick charts jiggz is posting???

when will this 'temporary' crash end?

To casual observers.... jiggs admitting this is actually a price crash and not due to some fancy schmancy debt stuff is ACTUALLY NEW.

lol at using the expected market response to declining prices as any kind of evidence of peak oil.

If prices increased and US production was rising, no doubt that too would be proof of peak oil.

The fact that jiggs is surprised by that or thinks it proves his point shows just how dumb he ****ing is. Yo jiggs, as prices of oil goes up there will be more investment in finding oil. As prices go down there will be less. THIS IS EXACTLY WHY PEAK OIL IS BUNK

Doubt I can change anyone's mind on anything in this on going train wreck, but the free book here from Regius professor David Mackay is worth a read for the actual physics and limits behind the current energy supply/demand.

Didn't read the link but the 1994 style web design screams crackpot

Although reading his wiki page looks like he's an accomplished dude

Yeah he is. Regius Cambridge professor, has solid reviews from left, right and centre parties all over government and from both the green movement and major oil firms.

havent' read much of the thread, huh?

it already has been proof of it, considering the world keeps bumping up against a ceiling for what it can afford... Your "no problem because free markets" narrative has a bit of a problem when it starts to cost more to produce an essential commodity than the average consumer or municipality has the purchasing power to pay for.

It's astounding that, at this point, you're still mired in this miss-the-point logic ... A true testament to your breathtaking lack of mental capacity, and further buttressing your worst poster of all time status, as voted on by your peers.

"Finding" the oil isn't the question, deep thinker. Extracting, refining delivering and securing a buyer for it all is the question.

This isn't the latest iPhone we're talking about, and you can't just hand-wave shortage away by rationalizing that those who can't afford it will just have to "go without." If you're approaching global net energy decline with that mindset -- that X percentage of civilization will just have to "go without" -- then you haven't countered the peak oil assertion ... You've conceded it.

Get it yet?

lol jiggs you pedantic ****tard substitute in 'extracting, refining delivering and securing a buyer' for 'finding' and the same thing still applies to why you're wrong.

Sorry, no, that would be you. Clearly, you just don't get it, and this is like telling a young ADHD sufferer to sit still.

There is a limit to what the world (mired in debt already) can shell out for their energy. At some point you'll come to realize that.

For those with the capacity to think, let's review a perfect example of an industry that can not function the same with elevated prices:

Airlines say they can't afford another huge oil price jump

Both executives made it clear that airlines can't stand another run-up to $147 a barrel, where oil peaked last July before plummeting fast to a low around $33 a barrel in February. All of the USA's big carriers began cutting capacity after Labor Day last year in response to high jet fuel prices that at times went above $4 a gallon.

And, oh the fallout for the airline industry (and global tourism) since then.

It's the same for municipal budgets, household discretionary spending, and corporate debt levels. High energy price affects everything. ... But today, low energy prices affect production levels. ... It's quite the volatile sawtooth here at the apex of global oil production. It will continue until the bubble bursts.

Want to guarantee recession? Flirt with oil prices over $100 for a few quarters. Meanwhile, where does the tight oil industry need prices to expand drilling, pay off debt and return dividends? Well over $100 dollars.

jiggs 'citing' 2009 business stories!

Guess what jiggs, if people can't buy the oil the price will go down.

and they will suffer as a result, as their growth forecast keep getting revised downward.

Thank you, in a "let them eat cake," roundabout way, for admitting the affects of peak oil. Only took you 6 yrs, though I don't you even understand what you just conceded.

Oh and people will invest in ways of getting more energy, whether it's from more oil, renewables, natural gas.

Then the price will come down... people buy more oil.

It's just a wonder to watch you jump around half of basic economics.

mmmkay, a few things here, deep thinker:

• the only "more oil" is the crap-grade, 3x as expensive, .5x as efficient crude from rock formations you and your allies here are perpetually masturbating over
  
• renewables won't move freight, won't fertilize crops, won't lubricate computer chips... and renewable investment isn't a debt bubble ready to pop
  
• there isn't a fleet of 1 billion vehicles currently running on natural gas ... and NGLs contain about a third less energy per unit volume and only one-third of that volume can be blended into transportation fuel.

You'd know that before typing if you had even a rudimentary understanding of energy basics. Or even a semester of HS physics.

A few short months before dozens of tight oil/gas companies default/shrink, sure. Rinse, repeat.

I kinda wonder at this point what market trend Jiggs would consider as evidence AGAINST peak oil.

Anything in there about how Ch.eney murdered Paul Wellstone because of peak oil?

None. We've already covered that all signs point to peak oil for Jiggs-y.

That's ultimately why I wanted him to make actual verifiable predictions.

Because right now his theory is that all signs point to peak oil and his 'predictions' are vague ramblings and one event that is relatively likely to happen even without peak oil.

Jiggs, which one do you think is the most serious issue: lack of oil, or climate change?

It seems obvious to me that both will have undesirable long-term effects but I'm leaving the assessment of the magnitude of these effects to experts. My general impression is that climate change is raising way more concern.

You often argue that there is some sort of cover-up regarding peak oil, but there are also efforts to deny climate change. Yet, climate change is being acknowledged way more than peak oil. What's up with that? Are the peak oil denier better at their job?

By the way, should we worry about climate change if we are running out of oil as fast as you say? It seems that it if we are rapidly running out of things to burn the question of CO2 emissions will just take care of itself.

FYP

Ah, no. You wanted predictions so you could attempt to mock and poke holes in something (anything) that doesn't play out 100%.

It was similar for trolls before you regarding the questions I posed for NYC on Hurricane Earl, which turned at the 11th hour. I was mocked for even asking if NYC had a viable evacuation plan. But then Sandy happened (not even a hurricane), lower Manhattan flooded, and NY/NJ had to seriously re-examine their natural disaster protocol. ... The problem with giving you firm predictions is that I'm only wrong right up until the point in time that I'm not.

Peak oil is here, and it will get worse. And my reluctance to paint a picture for goofy YOU of how the world will react/adjust does not change the fact that it's underway. It's called the long emergency for a reason, and you perhaps not feeling it inside your gated community yet says absolutely nothing about how the very ill global economy is enduring.

Correction: We are not "running out." We are running at levels of conventional oil that is too low to sustain an intricate modern global economy based on growth. There is plenty of crap oil, for which cultists of finance insist can maintain growth. But the law of diminishing returns asserts otherwise.

This is just another form of rejection of science. The difference is that even liberals are caught up in the same dismissal of natural limits that usually inhibits religious zealots and strident plutocrats and technocrats.

Net energy depletion and climate change are intrinsically linked, and can not really be decoupled. As we're already seeing, the problem here is that mankind, in its desperate addiction to fossil fuels, will continue turning to dirtier forms of oil until the bubble bursts. Some might say we're past the point of no return on fossil fuels. But those affects will be slower, yet relentless. The market panic (or war) ahead of the realization of undeniable total liquids decline? Well, that can occur overnight.

I haven't spent much time arguing that there is a cover up. That may have been the case back when the neocons subtly admitted it was coming (1999) and took violent steps to mitigate the condition. But it's pretty much out in the open now, and has been for nearly a decade since conventional production peaked, vindicating all of us saying it would for years beforehand.

Jiggs, why do we care on a systematic level if the junk bond oil companies default?

Energy company X defaults, their investors take a hit, another investor recapitalizes at a lower valuation that doesn't count on a volatile commodity never being volatile or one of the majors goes and buys it back for pennies on the dollar. Why are we supposed to care that much?

The banks aren't leveraged to oil in nearly the same way that they were leveraged to subprime (there's some underwritten deals on the books that are going to hit banks, but its not like the $200B of hung LBO's in '07 and there's no AAA/derivative/SIV type exposure)

The HY and equity markets trade off some after massive bull runs? Some sanity returns to leveraged credit markets? Lolboohoo

Oil prices going down are good for the real economy in the short-run, maybe bad for Wall Street in the short-run. Good.