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Immigration and refugees Immigration and refugees

07-25-2017 , 05:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
Get rid of illegal aliens and you will have a lower crime rate. Guaranteed.
Oh, wait. Are you saying that natives are targeting illegal immigrants and if illegal immigrants go home, the natives can't hurt them? That seems plausible, but I don't think it's true!
07-25-2017 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoOrDoNot
So far we've estimated the proportion of illegal immigrant crimes to total population of illegal immigrants.
Yes, thehill.com found that illegal immigrants are incarcerated at 92 per 100K vs. Californians at 750 per 100K!

Just on the off chance that you're bad at math, that's way, way less!
07-25-2017 , 05:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
Oh, wait. Are you saying that natives are targeting illegal immigrants and if illegal immigrants go home, the natives can't hurt them? That seems plausible, but I don't think it's true.
Some illegal immigrants commit crime. Right?

If you get rid of illegal immigrants, you have less crime. Right?

Stop the first law being broken and you prevent the second.

Like I said, basic math and most importantly basic common sense.
07-25-2017 , 05:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
If the law had been enforced properly, you wouldn't have the problem in the first place.

Basic common sense, my dear.

(The stupidity of Americans never ceases to amaze me.)


Why would you be the authority on properly enforced law? You are attributing your law and order position upon how amazingly stupid you say American are. Subprime, that is.

Lol at you invoking common sense.
07-25-2017 , 05:49 PM
lmao, treating it like absolute numbers instead of a rate across population turns it into a pro-abortion argument. If we abort more babies, there will be way less future criminals born into society (even if some, I'm sure, will be good people)! Utterly brilliant!
07-25-2017 , 05:50 PM
LOL goofy. You stupidity never ceases to amaze me.

Having babies isn't illegal, just fyi.

Illegal immigration is (guess what?) illegal. I know that's pretty hard for you to get your head around.

Last edited by BroadwaySushy; 07-25-2017 at 05:56 PM.
07-25-2017 , 05:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
lmao, treating it like absolute numbers instead of a rate across population turns it into a pro-abortion argument. If we abort more babies, there will be way less future criminals born into society (even if some, I'm sure, will be good people)! Utterly brilliant!
He even began by using "rate". нечестный
07-25-2017 , 05:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
LOL goofy. You stupidity never ceases to amaze me.

Having babies isn't illegal, just fyi.
I guess you love crime, then!
07-25-2017 , 05:59 PM
Quote:
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07-25-2017 , 06:04 PM
Yeah it does, the stupidity of supporting the serial killers of tomorrow being born into society today, you ****ing monster.
07-25-2017 , 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
Some illegal immigrants commit crime. Right?

If you get rid of illegal immigrants, you have less crime. Right?

Stop the first law being broken and you prevent the second.

Like I said, basic math and most importantly basic common sense.
What does it matter if there's less crime if the crime RATE goes up? I'm more likely to be a victim when the crime RATE goes up.

Basic math!
07-25-2017 , 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
What does it matter if there's less crime if the crime RATE goes up? I'm more likely to be a victim when the crime RATE goes up.



Basic math!


It's not about the rate. Your relativism is not persuasive. At what rate does the next Kate Steinle not get shot?
07-25-2017 , 06:47 PM
Criminal aliens account for about 25% of the U.S. federal prison population, according to this GAO report.

Quote:
Further, the criminal alien population as a percentage of the total federal inmate population has remained relatively constant since 2001. In 2005, we reported that the overall percentage of the criminal alien population incarcerated remained consistently around 27 percent of the total inmate population from 2001 to 2004. In fiscal year 2005, the criminal alien population in federal prisons was around 27 percent of the total inmate population, and in fiscal years 2006 through 2010 remained consistently around 25 percent.
That would be enough to convince me that criminal aliens are overrepresented in federal prison.

There is the question of whether they are overrepresented due to conviction for immigration offenses. I would say, that if they were just there for illegal immigration, no, I would not count that the same way as other crimes. But what about if the "immigration" crime is trafficking/smuggling illegal immigrants. The GAO report shows that 68% of those in federal prison were there for an immigration offense as their primary (highest sentence if multiple convictions) conviction.

Let's see if I can quote Fig. 11 correctly.

Quote:
Figure 11: Primary Convictions Related to Criminal Alien Federal Offenders in Fiscal Year 2009
Almost 90 Percent of Primary Federal Convictions Related to Criminal Alien Offenders in Fiscal Year 2009 Were for Immigration or Drug-Related Offenses
Immigration 68%
Drugs 20%
Economic Crimes 7%
Firearms 2%
Othera 2%
Money Laundering/Racketeering/Extort 1%
Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Sentencing Commission data.

a “Other” offenses include homicide, kidnapping, sex offenses, assault, arson, burglary, and auto theft.
The GAO text put immigration offenses and drug offenses together to get 90%, but I'm only interested in (possibly discounting) the 68% of immigration related offenses. So, if we do that, we take away 68% of the 25% from above, and get 25%*(100%-68%) = 8% of federal inmates who are there other than for an immigration-related primary conviction are criminal aliens.

The number seems too high to me. But I'm interested in thoughts on the number if accurate, and also views on whether the number is accurately/well determined.

Edit: I should have said, 8% "were" criminal aliens. This is for 2001-2010.

Edit2: Fixed the Fig. 11 percentages to match what is shown in the figure.

Last edited by pokerodox; 07-25-2017 at 06:55 PM.
07-25-2017 , 06:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggyMac
At what rate does the next Kate Steinle not get shot?
The next one is less likely to get shot at a lower RATE. That's how RATES work!

Basic math!
07-25-2017 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
The next one is less likely to get shot at a lower RATE. That's how RATES work!



Basic math!


You're still a moron.
07-25-2017 , 07:04 PM
The above was for federal prisons only. Same GAO report, on state prisons:

Quote:
Of the total number of days spent by all inmates in state prisons that received SCAAP reimbursements, SCAAP criminal aliens accounted for about 5 percent of all days in fiscal year 2009 and about 4 percent of all days in fiscal year 2003.
Page 11.

Edit: I believe SCAAP just means the state prison applied for federal reimbursement. Kinda the reason for this report, but I don't think it matters and it probably does not skew data either way.
07-25-2017 , 07:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
No, this is completely wrong. None of the data presented in the GAO report estimates crime rates among illegal immigrants as a group. All of the data in the report involves only the population of incarcerated aliens (what they call "criminal aliens"). There are no comparisons to the total population of illegal immigrants.
Correct, and I'm not talking about the GAO report doing this. thehill.com site does this by extrapolating out from # of crimes of incarcerated criminal aliens vs. total illegal immigrant population (11.2 million DOHS estimate) and then compares that rate to the native population to come up with the 22-37% #
07-25-2017 , 07:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
Yes, thehill.com found that illegal immigrants are incarcerated at 92 per 100K vs. Californians at 750 per 100K!

Just on the off chance that you're bad at math, that's way, way less!
You're probably quoting the Cato Institute study goofy posted earlier in the thread, and one of the problems with that study is that it does not control for legal immigration (it's all immigrants), and it's self-reported. Tell me how many illegal immigrants are willing to confess to both their status and their criminal records and I will show you how many pigs can fly.

EDIT: the Cato Institute is about as far right as is publicly acceptable in America, and they themselves note the problems with the study

Last edited by DoOrDoNot; 07-25-2017 at 08:01 PM.
07-25-2017 , 07:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerodox
Criminal aliens account for about 25% of the U.S. federal prison population, according to this GAO report.



That would be enough to convince me that criminal aliens are overrepresented in federal prison.



There is the question of whether they are overrepresented due to conviction for immigration offenses. I would say, that if they were just there for illegal immigration, no, I would not count that the same way as other crimes. But what about if the "immigration" crime is trafficking/smuggling illegal immigrants. The GAO report shows that 68% of those in federal prison were there for an immigration offense as their primary (highest sentence if multiple convictions) conviction.

Let's see if I can quote Fig. 11 correctly.



The GAO text put immigration offenses and drug offenses together to get 90%, but I'm only interested in (possibly discounting) the 68% of immigration related offenses. So, if we do that, we take away 68% of the 25% from above, and get 25%*(100%-68%) = 8% of federal inmates who are there other than for an immigration-related primary conviction are criminal aliens.

The number seems too high to me. But I'm interested in thoughts on the number if accurate, and also views on whether the number is accurately/well determined.

Edit: I should have said, 8% "were" criminal aliens. This is for 2001-2010.

Edit2: Fixed the Fig. 11 percentages to match what is shown in the figure.
And this can be gleaned from the GAO report to some degree. The table lists 3000000 total crimes and an immigration related crime at 500000, so about 16.7% of all illegal immigrant crimes. If you assume that all illegal immigrants that have committed immigration offences have committed them as their sole crime, and 25% of the prison population are illegal aliens, that means roughly 20.8% have committed non-immigration related offenses, which still puts them way over the representative amount. Illegal immigrants according to the DOHS make up about 2-3% of people residing in the US. This however, does not control for the overlap between illegal aliens who have committed both an immigration offense and another federal offense(s), so the number is certainly higher. It also is only related to federally prosecuted cases.

Last edited by DoOrDoNot; 07-25-2017 at 08:04 PM.
07-25-2017 , 08:39 PM
Which table gave 3,000,000 and 500,000 crimes? I was trying to ignore arrests and focus on convictions/in prison.
07-25-2017 , 09:22 PM
How many Kate Steinle's is too many?
07-25-2017 , 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
How many Kate Steinle's is too many?
How many Jeanne Drews are too many? We need to keep you Brits out.
07-25-2017 , 09:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
How many Kate Steinle's is too many?
The people who give no ****s about cops shooting Philando Castile are pulling this argument? LOL
07-25-2017 , 09:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoOrDoNot
You're probably quoting the Cato Institute study goofy posted earlier in the thread, and one of the problems with that study is that it does not control for legal immigration (it's all immigrants), and it's self-reported. Tell me how many illegal immigrants are willing to confess to both their status and their criminal records and I will show you how many pigs can fly.

EDIT: the Cato Institute is about as far right as is publicly acceptable in America, and they themselves note the problems with the study
I'm quoting the hilll.com, which is an awe-some source. It's awe-some.
07-25-2017 , 10:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
The people who give no ****s about cops shooting Philando Castile are pulling this argument? LOL
LOL strawmanning.

Yawn.

      
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