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Immigration and refugees Immigration and refugees

07-25-2017 , 04:53 PM
Relevance of this point to the conversation: still 0% :P
07-25-2017 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
Percentage of illegal aliens breaking the law. 100%.
That has been noted already, a couple times.
07-25-2017 , 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
Relevance of this point to the conversation: still 0% :P
Enforce that law and you have no illegal immigrant crime.

Entirely relevant, and basic simple math.
07-25-2017 , 04:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
It doesn't look like you made any real effort here to answer my question about Democrats only supporting amnesty without enforcement. To be clear, I'm looking for policy statements from elected Democrats or from the Democratic party.
Obama was an elected Democrat. Considering how easy it was to reduce illegal border crossings with an "enforcement only policy" - I believe the evidence speaks for itself. That IS policy!!!

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...igration-laws/

He may have paid lip service to deportation (and he did deport more than any other President), however he was not able to reverse the trend the way Trump has.

And I gave you proof of Republican political support for Amnesty. I don't think elected Republicans would be that far out of line.
07-25-2017 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoOrDoNot
thehill.com article is comparing the extrapolated estimations of the 2005-2008 prison populations crime rate per 100000 population illegal immigrants to the 2005-2008 crime rate of natives per 100000 population. It's not perfect, but its relevant.
No. It's not relevant. It's stupid. Let's look at the numbers today.

~169,000 people are currently in jail for murder.

And there have been, what, around ~50,000 murders in the past five years?

Well, look at that. The murderers currently in prison account for all 50,000 murders and then some. Maybe there are 100,000 innocent people in jail?!?!?!?

This method of "comparison" gives you wildly inaccurate "answers." It's totally useless unless your goal is to exaggerate how many murders are committed by a certain group of people. Hence the thehill.com article.
07-25-2017 , 05:03 PM
LOL, you dummies love over-complicating things.
07-25-2017 , 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
Enforce that law and you have no illegal immigrant crime.

Entirely relevant, and basic simple math.


Why? It's not, like your country. Any authoritarian can make a mockery of the law to backwards ass enforce it.
07-25-2017 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spanktehbadwookie
Why? It's not, like your country. Any authoritarian can make a mockery of the law to backwards ass enforce it.
If the law had been enforced properly, you wouldn't have the problem in the first place.

Basic common sense, my dear.

(The stupidity of Americans never ceases to amaze me.)
07-25-2017 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
Enforce that law and you have no illegal immigrant crime.

Entirely relevant, and basic simple math.
Seeking overly simple answers to complicated questions is wasteful.
07-25-2017 , 05:21 PM
LOL
07-25-2017 , 05:21 PM
And there's this from that thehill.com article:

Quote:
In California, there are just over 92 illegal immigrants imprisoned for every 100,000 illegals as compared to 74 citizens and legal non-citizen immigrants.
But the incarceration rate for California is 750 per 100,000 so illegal immigrants are ****ing awesome and we need more of them.

I didn't realize how awesome illegal immigrants were. They are outstanding!
07-25-2017 , 05:27 PM
Why would we want to keep these people out. They lower the crime rate just by showing up. I guess people who hate immigrants love crime, but not me. I am not a fan of crime.
07-25-2017 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
You are still confusing two different parts of the methodology. There are three steps

1) Identify a population of illegal immigrant inmates:





2) Collect arrest data for a sample of this population:
Correct. It's probably as good an estimate of the crimes committed by the criminal illegal immigrant population as you can get.



Quote:
Note that I made a mistake earlier. I was on my phone and couldn't check. Their estimates are to arrests for the 249k that had IAFIS data, not the full 500k population as I said a bit earlier. But also note the difference here between the source of data for step (1) and step (2). The time ranges they used to get the population of inmates does not limit the time range of the arrest histories, as they make clear in the parts I've quoted.
Correct, but this is irrelevant, because we are looking forward to a representative sample of crimes committed bu illegal immigrants per 100000 population, and this is a good estimate.

Quote:
3) Estimate the "Number and Percent of Criminal Alien Arrest Offenses by Type of Offense" (Table 2)



Let me walk through this in (even more excruciating) detail. This is the claim I am disputing:
So far we've estimated the proportion of illegal immigrant crimes to total population of illegal immigrants. Now you can compare the crime rate within that population to the crime rate of the total population over a few years which is what they did here. There are some problems with the math as you've pointed out; it would be almost perfect if we had total illegal immigrant crimes for the time period of the total population it is compared to, but that is obviously not possible. Something to note is that the total crimes estimated here are probably less absolutely speaking due to unsolved crimes or unprosecuted ones, so there are multiple problems in both directions. However, when you look at the other statistics coupled with this:
-illegal immigrants make up a significant % of the prison population (way more proportionally than their native counterparts)
-50% of all federal crimes are committed in border counties of California, Arizona, New Mexico
-the vast majority of illegal immigrants in prison are from Mexico

then we can see that there is something there not to be simply discounted.

From a strictly deductive point of view, we would expect that crimes committed in legal immigrant populations to be fairly low from an absolute point of view. These people go through the painful process of immigrating legally. They want to be here and they respect the law.

On the other hand, we should expect crime rates in illegal immigrant populations to be relatively high. These people are not concerned with following immigration laws, so it's more likely they have either committed crimes that prevent them from immigrating, or are willing to commit other crimes as well.
07-25-2017 , 05:28 PM
LOL. You can't make this **** up.
07-25-2017 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
Percentage of illegal aliens breaking the law. 100%.

It's not that complicated.
Yet the vast majority are better humans then the president who's worshippers have no issues with.
07-25-2017 , 05:31 PM
They're still breaking the law though. 100% of them.
07-25-2017 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
LOL. You can't make this **** up.
Why DO you like crime so much? Don't you want a lower crime rate?
07-25-2017 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoOrDoNot
So far we've estimated the proportion of illegal immigrant crimes to total population of illegal immigrants.
No, this is completely wrong. None of the data presented in the GAO report estimates crime rates among illegal immigrants as a group. All of the data in the report involves only the population of incarcerated aliens (what they call "criminal aliens"). There are no comparisons to the total population of illegal immigrants.
07-25-2017 , 05:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
They're still breaking the law though. 100% of them.
Oh, you just really dislike crimes involving lines, I guess. I'm more concerned with robberies and things like that--things that affect humans. I don't want to insult you, because lines are fine and even important sometimes. But property and life are more important.
07-25-2017 , 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
Why DO you like crime so much? Don't you want a lower crime rate?
Get rid of illegal aliens and you will have a lower crime rate. Guaranteed.

It's not rocket surgery.
07-25-2017 , 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
They're still breaking the law though. 100% of them.
This has been noted, several times.
07-25-2017 , 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
Get rid of illegal aliens and you will have a lower crime rate. Guaranteed.

It's not rocket surgery.
citation? oh, nvm, you're probably pretending it's useful to include the crime of illegal immigration
07-25-2017 , 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
They're still breaking the law though. 100% of them.
Good one. Trump not breaking the law should keep me going for a while.
07-25-2017 , 05:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Cut
This has been noted, several times.
So, do something about it. Sheesh.
07-25-2017 , 05:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy
Get rid of illegal aliens and you will have a lower crime rate. Guaranteed.

It's not rocket surgery.
Not according to this great and informative source called thehill.com.

Unless you are talking about line-based offenses, but as I've said, I care way more about people. Don't get mad! Lines are fine--but people are better.

      
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