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Immigration and refugees Immigration and refugees

03-29-2017 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez
high is a relative term obviously. $15 is high compared to $8. if trump didn't get elected then the immigration of people with low skill and education being increased was on the agenda. border security was also not on the agenda

this isn't some radical economic theory or distortion of policy. your assumption that the kids of immigrants with low education and skills will "likely" be middle class is optimistic to say the least. on top of that, it would be up to social services to support these families before a portion of the children make it to middle class. maybe you think the children of low skill and education immigrants are exceptional but kids growing up on social services aren't a slam dunk success story by any stretch

on top of that, theres clearly not a labor shortage. looking forward theres also an issue of technology replacing low skilled work. trump is being criticized for even attempting to revitalize manufacturing... by the same people that want to increase the immigration of people that need those jobs... and raise the minimum wage

none of it makes economic sense
You are jumping around topics which confuses your own thoughts on the matter.

Minimum wage should be a reflection of what on average should be a minimum standard of living. Hours worked vs food and shelter they can afford. In the current climate, that's much closer to 15 than to 8 for a majority of the population. On top of that, minimum wage alone leaves no opportunity for even an emergency savings account. Sucks to be poor, right? Should have known to have better parents or get better public education when you were a kid.

It's not radical to think that immigrants and their children contribute more to society than average. More law abiding, less crime rates. Bilingual kids turn out to be faster at certain aspects of learning. The opportunity they have is preached to them by their parents who usually come from much-much worse, more oppressive places.

It's incredibly hard for people to move to the US, legally or illegally. Part of it is selection. The legal process of getting a refugee visa weeds out a lot of criminal element, etc. and the migrants self-select themselves simply due to insane adjustment just to conceive leaving their circumstances/friends/family/culture to learn something completely new. Many do it out of desperation, but they are determined enough to persevere for years and decades until the new country feels like a home.

You appear to know nothing of the high end labor shortage, and ignorant of how the wages in agriculture are actually so low that predominantly only undocumented are willing to fill those places. That's an impressive range of being misinformed.

Last edited by sylar; 03-29-2017 at 01:40 PM.
03-31-2017 , 02:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
I think you are vastly overstating the value of government benefits. They probably disincentive work in some cases--single mothers, people in states that didn't expand Medicaid--but welfare pays below minimum wage even when you can get it.

These benefits are so meager that many people who are eligible don't even bother to claim them. Only 28% of eligible TANF recipients get the assistance. Food Stamps are higher at 70%, though, but you can still get food stamps while working, though at a lower rate.
They also disincentive work that isn't local for various reasons (bureaucracy, housing, etc). Some jobs/lifestyles (e.g. chasing crop harvests) have far lower opportunity costs for illegals the way things are set up now.

Quote:
This doesn't make sense. If employees now are overqualified (no way this number even approaches 50% by any reasonable measure), then that's a misallocation of resources. If the "delusion" ends then you are in the same place in terms of the labor market--except that your overqualified workers are no longer overly qualified. There would be no influx.
Recent bachelor's graduates were approaching 50% overqualification. Bulk for graduates under 45 is probably in the 30s. If the delusion ends, the influx is from more people going directly into the workforce more quickly instead of taking years off (or partially off) on useless college- the big decline in labor force participation among the youngs reverses- or at least tries to, if there are even crap jobs to be found as we run into more and more automation.
03-31-2017 , 08:16 PM
Quote:
Minimum wage should be a reflection of what on average should be a minimum standard of living.
was this ever the case in this country?
03-31-2017 , 08:29 PM
I dislike this thread. It implies this is a significant issue. It isn't a significant issue. There are way more important issues.

All the right has to do is talk endlessly about this stuff and control the agenda. It is impossible to counter an discussion which never ends.
04-01-2017 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat Sklansky
was this ever the case in this country?
Yes, it was probably conceived with this in mind. No, I don't know if it ever was adequately high to achieve that purpose.
04-02-2017 , 01:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sylar
Yes, it was probably conceived with this in mind. No, I don't know if it ever was adequately high to achieve that purpose.


How do you answer yes, then say probably, followed by a no, it was never achieved. This is a troll, yeah?
04-02-2017 , 02:00 AM
turns out you can't solve poverty with one law forever. who knew.
04-02-2017 , 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBV
I dislike this thread. It implies this is a significant issue. It isn't a significant issue. There are way more important issues.

All the right has to do is talk endlessly about this stuff and control the agenda. It is impossible to counter an discussion which never ends.
It's a huge political issue. The fact we think those who are so concerned about it are wrong doesn't alter the fact that they have incredibly strong political views about immigration and refugees that dictate how they vote. It's been a political failure to ignore the issue - we live in democracies and it's not enough to be right.

We need to not just explain why immigration is good for the economy but make sure resources such as hospitals and schools are funded properly in the areas they are needed. Fast immigration means we have to act quickly or the mismatch bwteen the economic benefit and the allocation of resources to where more people are living causes problems
04-03-2017 , 11:41 AM

https://twitter.com/BostonGlobe/stat...98496077983744
04-03-2017 , 11:47 AM
einbert, what is your point? That number in isolation says nothing.
04-03-2017 , 12:53 PM
This is the point:

The case for immigration
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politi...or-immigration
Quote:
George Washington set in motion a strategy so radical that it made this country the wealthiest and strongest on Earth — it made America great.

Immigration.

He embraced a vision for an open America that could almost be read today as a form of deep idealism or altruism. “America is open to receive not only the opulent and respectable stranger, but the oppressed and persecuted of all nations and religions,” he told newly arrived Irishmen in 1783. He assured them they’d be “welcome to a participation of all our rights and privileges, if by decency and propriety of conduct they appear to merit the enjoyment.”

But Washington’s vision wasn’t primarily about charity or helping others. It was about building the kind of country that he wanted the United States to become. Greatness would require great people. America would need more than it had.

The contemporary debate around immigration is often framed around an axis of selfishness versus generosity, with Donald Trump talking about the need to put “America first” while opponents tell heartbreaking stories of deportations and communities torn apart. A debate about how to enforce the existing law tends to supersede discussion of what the law ought to say.

All of this misses the core point. Immigration to the United States has not, historically, been an act of kindness toward strangers. It’s been a strategy for national growth and national greatness.
04-03-2017 , 01:31 PM
How about you answer me again regarding the number of tax incomes I was interested in and not something George Washington said in ancient history?
04-03-2017 , 01:40 PM
As for some economic data:

1st gen immigrants are about 17% of the Swedish population, including second generation they are about 23% of the population. Despite this, 1st gen immigrants are serving 53% of our long term jail sentences they account for 54% of the unemployed and 60% of our population on welfare.

That is not even taking into account the effects of how their tribalist, regressive, Islamist inspired cultures are having on our society today and in long term. Time will tell.

Last edited by Marn; 04-03-2017 at 01:46 PM.
04-03-2017 , 04:09 PM
But not all Muslims...
04-03-2017 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marn
As for some economic data:

1st gen immigrants are about 17% of the Swedish population, including second generation they are about 23% of the population. Despite this, 1st gen immigrants are serving 53% of our long term jail sentences they account for 54% of the unemployed and 60% of our population on welfare.

That is not even taking into account the effects of how their tribalist, regressive, Islamist inspired cultures are having on our society today and in long term. Time will tell.
Only in racially pure Scandinavia does the concept exist of second generation immigrants still not being regarded as true Scandinavians.

Appalling.
04-03-2017 , 04:51 PM
hey thanks for linking the headline einbart. im not sure if you understand the purpose of a headline or if you have made yourself aware that many media sources are openly biased today, but regardless this is interesting

i also appreciate your analysis and ability to articulate ideas and arguments. george washington was a great man. we shouldn't just dismiss his views on immigration because it was from the 1700's. some things have probably changed since then but on the other hand, some things have probably not


batair brings up a good point. his participation in this forum is mostly defending any criticism of muslims. his response time shows vigilance that chezlaw should appreciate

marn are the immigrants you are referring to muslims? they are protected groups. im not sure you are within the rules here. if you want to call george washingtons view ancient and moronic in regards to todays immigration issues, that should be ok, he's a white man. according to the rules white and asian men aren't protected groups.

you mind find this format restrictive and unproductive where people spam headlines about a topic without the ability to articulate any sort of respectable argument and then your response is restricted because the headline refers to a "vulnerable group", but thats just the way it is. settle down with your stats

-oh right on cue jalfrezi shows up lol
04-03-2017 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez


batair brings up a good point. his participation in this forum is mostly defending any criticism of muslims. his response time shows vigilance that chezlaw should appreciate
If you guys didn't condemn it as a whole and criticized it fairly you wouldn't hear a peep. But you wont...so if i read a post like yours or others that condemn an entire religion yes i will respond. Suck it up if you dont like it because i dont give a **** about you.

So basically all you have to do to get me to stfu about Islam is for you all to stop saying dumb stuff about it. Gl.

Last edited by batair; 04-03-2017 at 05:12 PM.
04-03-2017 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by batair
If you guys didn't condemn it as a whole and criticized it fairly you wouldn't hear a peep. But you wont...so if i read a post like yours or others that condemn an entire religion yes i will respond. Suck it up if you dont like it because i dont give a **** about you.
oh sorry, i just assumed this was a politics thread where someone posted about how great immigration is. i guess they were right. there is no downside to immigration. marns stats are just a party pooper... and unfair... oh and we just condemned an entire relgion.... except nobody did that....

oh and i realized nobody gives a **** about me. it is assumed that i am a white or asian man. we stand alone as the non vulnerable groups so of course nobody cares. oddly, it makes me feel vulnerable
04-03-2017 , 05:17 PM
Find a fainting couch or someone who cares. Man you guys cry a lot for not liking it and being self described alphas.
04-03-2017 , 05:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marn
einbert, what is your point? That number in isolation says nothing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marn
How about you answer me again regarding the number of tax incomes I was interested in and not something George Washington said in ancient history?
You're looking for something like this:

http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/op_39.pdf

Quote:
Our research suggests that legalizing a significant proportion of the
undocumented immigrant population would not impose serious costs
on either the economy in general or the social insurance system in particular.
In fact, it turns out that maintaining the status quo on this matter
would be economically wasteful.
Of course, spending a lot of money to deport immigrants would be even more economically wasteful.
04-03-2017 , 10:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marn
einbert, what is your point? That number in isolation says nothing.
they've contributed to america way more than Trump.
04-04-2017 , 11:05 AM


leave this here so people can grasp the economics behind immigration. this is why you don't cite george washington from the 1700's lol

04-04-2017 , 01:03 PM
Friedman is right that illegal immigration is a positive. He is also right that too much welfare can make giving citizenship to those illegal immigrants a net negative.

The research that I linked to shows that giving undocumented workers a path to citizenship actually saves money today. There are other studies that show essentially the same thing.
04-04-2017 , 01:41 PM
Trump's policies on trade and immigration are anathema to a lot of the business Republicans, but even the farmers in Central California who operate almost entirely with undocumented workers and export more than a little of their produce to Mexico thanks to government subsidies and NAFTA voted for Drumpf. It was just that important to say FU Liberals!
04-04-2017 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
Society also benefits from the economic activity of the immigrant and the immigrant's tax payments into SS and Medicare.

Most economists think the average American is better off with more low-skilled labor:

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/lo...led-immigrants

So it's not unreasonable to think that that would be the case, but I wouldn't argue it is a proven truth.



I don't know where you're getting the bolded from. It seems incredibly dubious.

Incentivizing work seems fine--but too big a subsidy and you're going to lose some people from higher-paying, higher-stress jobs or incentivize people who would want more training/education to skip it since any gains would be marginal. Not to mention that the solution is completely impossible politically.

Also, I think you're wrong about there being an oversupply of labor. (probably true in many areas/industries, not so true in others.)
There are certainly different types of labor that wouldn't be preformed if "low skill labor" were reduced. Child care and lawn maintenance, for instance. Ship all those immigrants back home and those kind of jobs won't be taken up at the same rate. We'll just have more latchkey kids and more poorly maintained lawns. That's regardless of increases or decreases in productivity.

      
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