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06-09-2017 , 05:44 PM
He fks up the future, the housing price drops yay!
06-09-2017 , 10:17 PM
I think he meant costs, not risks. The costs, assuming global warming is a hoax or the damages are greatly overstated making carbon taxes pointless, are the benefits derived from the things we would have bought/used without the tax but that because of the tax we no longer buy/use. The stuff that we continue to use at a higher price are value neutral since the increase in price is tax revenue.

Like if a carbon tax jacked up gas prices by 10%... the social cost (in the context of driving) isn't the 10% price increase. It's the trips that we would have taken without the tax that we decide "meh, dont feel like going out" in proportion to the strength of our preference, which by definition is <= 10% of the cost of gas.
06-10-2017 , 11:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny McBride
He fks up the future, the housing price drops yay!
Looks like you would be shocked if he "fks up the future" and housing market remained strong.
06-10-2017 , 11:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Love Sosa
Daily reminder: Climate change is a hoax.

That is all.
You think the climate doesn't change? lol

Or that it's not caused by humans? Or not enough to matter?
06-10-2017 , 12:47 PM
Worth debating the particulars, but trumps handling of the issue is horrific. Why could he not tweet some kind of an interview or lecture from the people who he's deferring to on the issue? He obviously has no issue posting links on twitter to highly unscientific content to justify his choices, what's stopping him from posting some of the legitimate critiques of the conventional wisdom on climate science?

If he really thinks it's important, it's worth giving a voice to highly credentialed dissenters so that there can be some kind of a public debate to shift public opinion. But no. He'd rather a) call it a hoax and then b) suggest that his withdrawal from the paris accord is because the US is getting a bad deal, which actually implies that he DOES accept the conventional wisdom on climate science but wants others to pay more. It's not even internally consistent.
06-10-2017 , 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Black Peter
You think the climate doesn't change? lol

Or that it's not caused by humans? Or not enough to matter?
If he writes what he really thinks, his post will get deleted.
06-10-2017 , 08:42 PM
Didn't Gore and his cronies say in the early 2000's that all the ice in the north pole would be melted by 2015?
06-11-2017 , 09:14 AM
No.
06-11-2017 , 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
No.
Yes he did:
http://content.usatoday.com/communit...1#.WT1ZrGhVlpg

And he was wrong.
06-11-2017 , 01:19 PM
No:

Quote:
Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014
But even that headline is wrong:

Quote:
"Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months will be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years," Gore said.

Afterward his office clarified his statement, saying he meant nearly ice-free, because ice would be expected to survive in island channels and other locations.
But it wasn't a good argument from Gore--most scientists knew those extreme models were likely wrong.

So listen to scientists and not Gore.
06-11-2017 , 03:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13ball
So listen to scientists and not Gore.
The same scientists who were peddling "global cooling" back in the 70's?

B-b-but it's different this time.
06-11-2017 , 03:44 PM
The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus

Quote:
An enduring popular myth suggests that in the 1970s the climate science community was predicting “global cooling” and an “imminent” ice age, an observation frequently used by those who would undermine what climate scientists say today about the prospect of global warming. A review of the literature suggests that, on the contrary, greenhouse warming even then dominated scientists' thinking as being one of the most important forces shaping Earth's climate on human time scales. More importantly than showing the falsehood of the myth, this review describes how scientists of the time built the foundation on which the cohesive enterprise of modern climate science now rests.
06-11-2017 , 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amoeba
I don't understand the necessity to prove that climate change is manmade as a precursor to do something about it.

The blaming of China and India for the bulk of co2 emissions also ignores not just the issue of past emissions, which abbadabba brought up, but also the issue of population.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...xide_emissions

While China has the highest total carbon footprint, it's per capita carbon footprint is less than 1/2 the US. India's total carbon footprint is 1/2 the US while having 3x the population. So to say India and China are doing nothing is clearly untrue. Unless if you want to kill off a bunch of people, just keeping total carbon emissions at current levels is a challenge for both China and India.

While those enormous populations are a detriment to carbon reduction, the silver lining is that those large populations are also a tremendously large market for American low pollution products. China is already the largest market for American car companies, tech hardware, and select agricultural products. To lose that market share of future environmentally sound products is the most anti business idea you can think of. You're not going to export a lot of coal in the future. Can't build a pipeline to Asia either.

The idea that environmental regulation is a direct link to job loss is fairly spurious.

Environmental initiatives can just as easily create jobs and there is a tremendous opportunity in front of us.
+1
06-11-2017 , 04:13 PM
This is a fun one. Climate change was pretty well accepted in the early 1900's. Wonder what changed.

http://www.snopes.com/1912-article-global-warming/
06-12-2017 , 11:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggyMac
Everyone knows that Gore is an idiot and only in it for the money and fame. He's done so much harm for the movement that it may not be reparable in time. However, that does not discount the facts.

Also, many of the dire warnings from real scientists have not come true because policy has changed in many areas. Look at the ozone layer, for example. While some argue that the hole has not been reduced back to pre-dangerous levels, it clearly has not gotten any bigger.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/eart...nt-matter.html
06-15-2017 , 04:25 PM
A good read about the Dutch and their fight against sea levels and climate change, specifically in the city of Rotterdam, where they've managed to turn the fight against flooding into a bit of an industry.

Quote:
That’s because from the first moment settlers in this small nation started pumping water to clear land for farms and houses, water has been the central, existential fact of life in the Netherlands, a daily matter of survival and national identity. No place in Europe is under greater threat than this waterlogged country on the edge of the Continent. Much of the nation sits below sea level and is gradually sinking. Now climate change brings the prospect of rising tides and fiercer storms.
Quote:
That’s the city’s mantra. When I asked Mr. van Wingerden if it was unsettling to live in a waterfront city mostly below sea level, he said: “It seems to us less dangerous than living on the San Andreas Fault. At least when we flood, we’ll have some warning before our feet get wet.”

To the Dutch, what’s truly incomprehensible, he added, is New York after Hurricane Sandy, where too little has been done to prepare for the next disaster. People in the Netherlands believe that the places with the most people and the most to lose economically should get the most protection.

The idea that a global economic hub like Lower Manhattan flooded during Hurricane Sandy, costing the public billions of dollars, yet still has so few protections, leaves climate experts here dumbfounded.
06-15-2017 , 05:57 PM
Netherlands underwater?

wtf I love climate change now
06-22-2017 , 07:45 PM
Topical given the current heat wave in the western US that's breaking temperature records: NYT article with some good visuals about temperature changes over the next 80 years

Right now, this is how much of the world sees temperatures over 95F (35C) over 5 days per year on average, colored by how many days (darkest = 200+ days a year):



There are two projections for how this map changes, one based on nations meeting Paris goals, the other ("doing nothing") based on emissions continuing to rise at the same rate as 2000-2010:





The latter one isn't likely to happen, given that coal use is declining, but we still have work to do to make it to the Paris map, which still isn't ideal. Extreme heat both increases our need for energy and decreases our ability to feed the world:



It also has harmful economic effects:

Quote:
The flip side is that air-conditioning can be an essential adaptation tactic. In countries without widespread cooling, heat deaths rise more sharply during the hottest days. One study estimated that heat deaths in India increase by 3.2 percent for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above 68 (or every 1 degree Celsius above 20). Energy use in many countries may rise sharply as people struggle to adapt to a hotter climate.

Other scientists have found that corn and soybean yields in the United States plummet precipitously when temperatures rise above 84 degrees Fahrenheit (29 degrees Celsius), and that worker productivity declines sharply, particularly for outdoor jobs. And researchers are trying to understand how crime and conflict might rise as temperatures increase.
06-23-2017 , 12:20 PM
Cue: "but it's probably just the sun, we can't help it"
06-24-2017 , 08:27 AM
It's probably just the moon. Nothing we can do about it.
06-25-2017 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Love Sosa
The same scientists who were peddling "global cooling" back in the 70's?

B-b-but it's different this time.
show that "it's the same scientists." ... give me a name.

science constantly evolves as better data comes in... you realize this by now, yes? ... probably not.
06-25-2017 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Love Sosa
The same scientists who were peddling "global cooling" back in the 70's?

B-b-but it's different this time.
I admit I don't know the scope of whatever global cooling theories were advanced back in the 70s. I suspect that the scope was smaller than what you would say. Wikipedia says this:

Quote:
Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling of the Earth's surface and atmosphere culminating in a period of extensive glaciation. This hypothesis had little support in the scientific community, but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s and press reports that did not accurately reflect the full scope of the scientific climate literature, which showed a larger and faster-growing body of literature projecting future warming due to greenhouse gas emissions
Emphasis mine.

But despite what was said in the past, yes, things are different now. Every field has been revolutionized by the data analysis tools of computers. Fields like climate science in particular, featuring phenomena which are very complex from a mechanistic standpoint, benefit greatly from the collecting and crunching of massive amounts of data which has become possible with computers.
06-27-2017 , 04:12 PM
Two stories based not on any future climate models, but rather current measurements of what is happening right now:

Even as carbon emissions are stabilizing, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere is still rising at record rates

Sea level rise is accelerating (who was it earlier saying "yeah why listen to the guy making the observations" about some east coast fisherman saying "I'm out on the water every day and I don't see it rise"? rofl what a dumbass)
06-29-2017 , 03:29 PM
Climate change will hit the South and Midwest the hardest economically


(color scale is % of GDP each county will experience in damages)

lol dumbass conservatives
06-29-2017 , 07:16 PM
Interesting. Just FYI, the scale from the article shows, I think, dark green is 5-10% economic growth, light green is 0-5% growth, light orange is 0-5% economic damage, orange is 5-10% damage, red-orange is 10-15% damage and red is 15-20% damage.

The damage appears to be primarily from heat stroke deaths and crops not growing as well. Adapting by preventing heat stroke deaths (France provided cooling centers for those without AC in 2003) and changing/adapting crops may alleviate some or much of the damage.

I wonder why San Diego and, what is that, Fresno, benefit.

      
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