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Profitability caution by rakeback provider Profitability caution by rakeback provider

10-05-2013 , 11:06 PM
In light of the recent changes in the VIP program at Merge, I am strongly considering switching my cash game play to ACR. To that end, I signed up for RB. After signing up, the nice folks at the RB company asked me a few questions about the games I might play (game type and general limits), as well as for info about how I found them, etc..

After explaining that I would likely play primarily $25nl 6-max, with some $50nl thrown in as games were good, they cautioned me that the additional 25 cents per hand rake that The Beast promo takes would make it very challenging to be profitable at those levels. They recommended that I perhaps take a look at moving to PokerHost, which, though a Merge skin, apparently has some different VIP program methodology. This isn't an option for me, as I reside in a state that doesn't take new Merge accounts (I can only play there because I started the Merge account shortly after Black Friday).

So, my question is, what say you experienced micro/small stakes grinders at WPN? Is my rakeback guy right in saying the increased rake at WPN tables make it very hard to turn a profit, or has your experience been different?

Many thanks.
10-05-2013 , 11:56 PM
in b4 meaningless sample beating the games.

unless you can mass multi table and put in crazy crazy volume towards rakeback + the beast, its gonna be tough tough tough at 25nl to have any kind of decent hourly and beat the rake.

word on the street is ~$600 monthly rake to breakeven in beast rewards so if you rake less than that you're pretty much paying every two weeks for somebody else's rake race.
10-06-2013 , 12:13 AM
No one was really beating 25nl in my experience. Maybe a few table starter types that leave once all the beast grinders come are beating it but no one else really. I did the beast for about a half a year and I did not see anyone that I had significant hands on beating the game.

If you logically think of what good win rates are and then subtract all the extra bbs per 100 you pay into the race you'll see why its so hard to actually beat those stakes. Now factor in that you have tons of people playing a tighter style and or short stacking or semi short stacking and u can see why these stacks are so bad.
10-06-2013 , 12:40 AM
Honestly, I think it's beatable. You have to have rakeback and hit a beast payout to make it really worthwhile. But you should be able to break even at the tables given the quality of play. The beast grinders that I've been playing with are not particularly good players. Or at least, they're playing too many tables to worry about.

But break even play + rakeback + mincashing the beast would be halfway decent imo..

I've just started this month, though. So take it for what it is.
10-06-2013 , 12:52 PM
Op you do know you don't have to play beast tables right? Just play the regular tables. I just started playing the beast tables this month and since I can't put in the volume some of the guys can, while still profitable, I think I could make more not playing them.
10-06-2013 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nozzle
Honestly, I think it's beatable. You have to have rakeback and hit a beast payout to make it really worthwhile. But you should be able to break even at the tables given the quality of play. The beast grinders that I've been playing with are not particularly good players. Or at least, they're playing too many tables to worry about.

But break even play + rakeback + mincashing the beast would be halfway decent imo..

I've just started this month, though. So take it for what it is.
I take all this back after analyzing my database.

If your win rate is over 18bb/100, you should be able to break even before rakeback and beast prizes.

I'd like to organize a boycott of Beast tables starting October 16. I'd encourage everyone to play on non-JP tables from then on.
10-07-2013 , 02:36 PM
How much of that 18bb/100 rate is cause by the extra Beast rake?
10-07-2013 , 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skraper
How much of that 18bb/100 rate is cause by the extra Beast rake?
About half.
10-07-2013 , 03:59 PM
Basically if your win rate is 8-9 bb/100 at regular 25nl tables, you can expect to break even at the tables and your profit will be whatever your beast prize and rakeback add up to...
10-07-2013 , 07:48 PM
Like 1% of winning players are good enough to win at 4BB/100
10-07-2013 , 11:12 PM
The problem is no ones really playing the non-jp (black) tables....
10-08-2013 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nozzle
About half.
Yea, that's absurd

Quote:
Originally Posted by tzwien
Like 1% of winning players are good enough to win at 4BB/100
I would agree. It's nearly impossible to win if the 9bb in EXTRA rake number is accurate.
10-08-2013 , 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skraper
I would agree. It's nearly impossible to win if the 9bb in EXTRA rake number is accurate.
Don't believe there are any winners over a decent sample. The only people making money are winning the top prizes from the promotion, and those players would be down a ton without the promotion.
10-08-2013 , 03:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nozzle
Don't believe there are any winners over a decent sample. The only people making money are winning the top prizes from the promotion, and those players would be down a ton without the promotion.
While its fair to say the only ones making money are the top prize getters to say they would be down a ton without the promo is not quite fair. I think it is safe to assume the leaders of the beast know they are playing sub-optimally but are doing it just to win a bigger prize. If it wasn't for the beast they wouldn't be playing that many hands an hour and would surely be more concerned about their wr.
10-08-2013 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chopsy2
While its fair to say the only ones making money are the top prize getters to say they would be down a ton without the promo is not quite fair. I think it is safe to assume the leaders of the beast know they are playing sub-optimally but are doing it just to win a bigger prize. If it wasn't for the beast they wouldn't be playing that many hands an hour and would surely be more concerned about their wr.
The very best grinders in online poker would not be able to show a meangful profit over a significant sample. Even playing a manageable number of tables, with no drop off in performance. It's just not possible.

And anybody but the very best will just be bleeding out at an obscene rate. None of the beast grinders appear to be world class players. They'd be massive losers in these games with the extra rake without winning the beast. Period.
10-08-2013 , 05:03 PM
I mean, just consider the whole premise of this thread. Affiliates are absolutely not in the business of telling players to avoid sites they get kickbacks from. But the beast is so bad that they want their players to avoid it, because unless they're one of the top beast grinders they WILL go broke.
10-08-2013 , 09:53 PM
Some affiliates actually do care about their players.
10-08-2013 , 11:53 PM
After looking at this, I've decided not to put money on WPN. I'm a solid, winning player over a large sample size, but, that said, the math suggests that I'm not close to being a large enough winner. It's a shame, given the recent changes at Carbon, but that's the life of a US player these days, I guess.
10-09-2013 , 12:33 AM
The Beast is a beast, lol.
10-09-2013 , 12:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nozzle
I mean, just consider the whole premise of this thread. Affiliates are absolutely not in the business of telling players to avoid sites they get kickbacks from. But the beast is so bad that they want their players to avoid it, because unless they're one of the top beast grinders they WILL go broke.
Quote:
Originally Posted by skraper
Some affiliates actually do care about their players.

You know surprisingly some affiliates do care about their players


--
Kahn
10-09-2013 , 02:05 PM
good call don't put money on wpn. They don't pay rakeback PERIOD . Got $94 rakeback after amassing 13000+ beast points in one week LOL.

Got $54 the week prior for playing just one day during that week.

Support wont help or explain how I only got 90 something

thanks True poker via 5 dimes.
10-09-2013 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdfan
good call don't put money on wpn. They don't pay rakeback PERIOD . Got $94 rakeback after amassing 13000+ beast points in one week LOL.

Got $54 the week prior for playing just one day during that week.

Support wont help or explain how I only got 90 something

thanks True poker via 5 dimes.
That's funny because I have the same issue.
10-09-2013 , 03:13 PM
really chop? Check my other thread on this I just got a response back from them im posting it.

      
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