Qtip....

not sure if you will answer this or not but when you put in this monthly volume, do you come out up or down without the beast payout?

I once got 10th in this and got about 1500 from beast, but only actually profitted about 300 dollars.

So I would have been deep in the hole if it was not for the beast payout.

You?

thank you

Let's get real about this tourney ticket. The vast majority of players will realize none of their equity from it.

I'm not rolled for high variance $55 mtts, and certainly wouldn't be playing in this tournament if I was given a $55 cash prize.

There is simply no way that everyone who pays into the Beast comes out ahead.

The only way it would be possible is if the site is adding a ton of extra money to the prizepool.

For example, they collect 100k in Beast rake and give out 200k in prizes.

We know that isn't happening. In fact, they give out less than they collect in Beast rake.

So if you're winning more from the Beast than you pay in, it's because others have lost that money.

I would like to know from which "points to cash prize" relation a player will get the same amount out of The Beast like he had contributed.

The points/cash prize relation is currently:

1st 61500 : 9600.- = 6,5

10th 17600 : 1430.- = 12

20th 13160 : 600.- = 22

30th 9115 : 215.- = 42

40th 6700 : 185.- = 37

50th 5650 : 165.- = 35

100th 3700 : 120.- = 31

200th 1970 : 90.- = 22

287th 1370 : 80.- = 17


The points/cash prize relation if you count the tournament ticket as $50 is currently:

1st 61500 : 9650.- = 6,5

10th 17600 : 1480.- = 12

20th 13160 : 650.- = 20

30th 9115 : 265.- = 34

40th 6700 : 235.- = 29

50th 5650 : 215.- = 27

100th 3700 : 170.- = 22

200th 1970 : 140.- = 16

287th 1370 : 130.- = 10


If the 287th place with a points/money relation of 17(10 including tournament ticket) get the same money out like he had contributed, this would mean that those with a higher points/money relation(especially those between 20th and 100th) will get less out than they have contributed!


And please dont use the numbers of the current The Beast race to calculate from which points/cash prize relation The Beast is rentabel. There was a $60000 add for the current race from the previous hole month, but for the next period 16th to 31th October there will be a 25% add from only 15 days(1st to 15th).

You need to reread my post.

I'm quite certain no one in the top places is winning money before the Beast payment. I have a ton of hands on these players, and all of them in my database lose money before the Beast payment. Every player needs to conduct a reality check about their abilities at a certain number of hands per hour in a given field. When players stretch their multi-tabling abilities, using no table selection, against decent players, they're unlikely to beat the rake. If you're beating the rake, this means you're beating your opponents for the amount of rake. If you breakeven with your opponents, your "winrate" is going to be the amount of the rake. About a year ago, I blogged about this on my website.

"I'm quite certain no one in the top places is winning money before the Beast payment."

What about you?

The claim I've heard is that the Beast is killing player's win rates (specifically those players in the leaderboard). There are two ways this claim could be true:

#1. People on the leaderboard are paying more than they're getting back.

I'm saying this is incorrect. It's simple to prove me wrong. We simply need a person on the leaderboard from a completed competition to show their contribution, and we can all look at what they got back from the Beast. If the difference comes down to the true value of a tournament ticket, I think it's safe to say this promotion is not "killing" anyone's winrate by over-contribution for those on the leaderboard.

If I'm right, WPN should have no problem posting contributions and prizes side by side for the leaderboard. That post would end this discussion.


#2. The Beast is killing the games.

I'm uncertain about this one, but it doesn't make sense to me. Most days of the week, I'm sitting on virtually every table from 25nl to 100nl. Some nights, like last night, there are quite a few of those games that are actually quite good. Certainly, many of the tables are awful...simply the top players on the leaderboard putting in hands. My point is the bad tables wouldn't exist if it weren't for the Beast. Some players should avoid the bad tables. It's the same skill that's always been necessary for good poker: table selection.

What I've seen is WPN like quadruple in size since the Beast. I'd say there are more fish here than there ever have been. However, the increase in fish is not proportional to the increase in the number of tables. Therefore, a player needs to be more diligent with table selection.

If a player thinks they can hop on a micro table (always high rake tables) with a bunch of regs (esp while that player is pressing his multitabling abilities) and beat his opponents for more than the rake, they're likely not properly assessing the situation.

In the poker industry, action begets action. Having 125 tables going in the lobby seems to me it would attract casual players as opposed to the pre-Beast WPN days of having 10 tables in the lobby. I don't have any numbers to prove this, but it makes sense to me.

No, I'm not. As I said, I blogged about my results a year ago. Nothing has changed in that regard.

If someone can play 45 tables at WPN and beat the rake at micro games (not talking about Beast contribution, rake), I would consider them one of the best (probably THE best) player in the world.

Thank you. I feel better about my results which were part time at the min.

I would love to have the chance to give you a run for the top.

OK...Here are some numbers. I spot-checked places previously. This time I put in the whole month of September. It seems I was wrong for guys in the middle of the pack. According to my estimates, the middle of the pack is losing some money.

**Please keep in mind these are estimates based on MY averages. People playing at different stakes and/or with a different playing style than mine will have different averages in terms of points/hand and contribution/hand.

If my estimates are correct, I would say WPN should tweak the structure. If my estimates are correct, I'm guessing they will tweak the structure.

Looks like the worst case scenario is around (-$150). Seems players between 23ish and 60ish are overcontributing to the tune of probably around 0.005 bb/100. Not crushing souls, but if these estimates are accurate, I'll get in line with those saying the prize structure should be changed.

I used $55 as the value of the ticket. If you feel differently, change it.

Yeah. This is what we're saying. Stop pretending that a $55 lottery ticket is money, and only the to guys are making money. Everyone else is losing.

Are you saying the ticket has no value?

I quit playing the beast tables this month (1st time trying) because I could see that I was contributing at a faster rate than my projected finish was growing. Would a better idea be to have the payouts be based on what a person contributed? For example say Qtip finished first he would be paid out 200% of what he contributed. Second would be paid out 175% of what he contributed and so on. These aren't exact numbers but it would still push players to play more while keeping the guys in the middle interested because even if they are not moving up in spots return would still be growing at a faster rate then it currently is.

We need to get some MTT guys in here on the value of this. I know there are guys who LOVE this tournament and say it's worth much more than $55. They make sure they play every month because half the field isn't there. These are not guys on the leaderboard. They pay for their ticket and will reenter as well.

98.8% of players who get tickets will not see anything from it. For the vast majority of players, it will have no impact on their bottom line.

Half the field not being there is a lot of players not getting $55 of value from their ticket.

You are not being consistent at all, to put it nicely. You're being dishonest might be more accurate.

It's great for players because of this ticket they get that has no value for them!

so, extrapolating off your screen shot we can form a couple conclusions. please correct me if these are wrong.

* only the top ~5% of all players on the leader board are showing any real meaningful profit of greater than $250 per race.

* ~17% who thought they were actually doing well (positions 20-100ish) are actually losing money to this promotion.

* the remaining ~78% of players on the leader board are showing a net profit of <$55 in equity (much less in actuality because so many that receive tourney tickets never realize that equity).

now, once you factor in that we still have no clear indication of whats happening with players ~170-450, and because contribution has to continue to increase to maintain position on the board while the prize doesn't, it serves as likely that their equity drops with every day past the first day of the race and could very easily be laughably +ev to flat out -ev, and this is just for the people who are lucky enough to actually receive something back from the promotion.

meanwhile every other player on the site who sits at a Beast table is having a net negative experience with the promotion. sounds absolutely super to me!

Nozzle:

There's an EV for this ticket. I don't know what it is; I'm not informed on the MTT side of poker. We need an MTT guy who knows this tournament to give us a good idea.

I've been told by some the EV of this tournament is way over $55. Whatever...I don't care what the number is. What we know for sure is that it's over $0. For the sake of this discussion, let's call the EV $30.

Let's take a guy named Bob who played 2,000 hands at 25nl. He's contributed $20 to the Beast. In return, he gets a tournament ticket worth $30. If Bob decides to light that $30 EV on fire by not playing the tournament, can he complain he's been given nothing?

Didn't Mirage already do this basically? Just did not state his actual name/stats but the method he used and stated that he was not profitable. Top 10% would be somewhere in the top 50

this is wholly likely if Tip's screen shot is accurate as places 20-50 are all showing a negative.

They should decrease the amount of places they pay out so guys in 20-100 aren't losing money due to the promotion. That's insane.

If a person who puts in small volume came to WPN to participate in the Beast, they have mental problems. We all know that already. I've dealt with this idea in my OP.

Yes, the top 20 places is where a player wants to be. Those are all percentage payouts. It turns out the Beast is a competition revolving around volume.

The middle players didn't think they were doing well. These are the guys in this forum complaining about being "hosed" by the beast; claiming they can't win in the games because the Beast is killing them. We see that's not true. The losses are much less than the hyperbole I've seen in these forums. HOWEVER, we do see the payout structure needs to be tweaked so the middle men do make more than they are currently. There are about 4-5 guys on this list I would say are getting a terrible shake from the Beast. These are guys who play mostly 25nl and are losing 3-4 buyins. These guys are probably giving up about 0.6 bb/100. I would be upset in their shoes. I concede this, and I hope WPN does something about this.

The remaining players who are getting a ticket for less than $55...I'll let you decide if you want to jump in Nozzle's boat on that one.

no, he can't. what he can complain/argue about, though, is that the trade off of that laughable gain weighted against the negative effects the promotion has on the games is not even close to worth it unless you're lucky enough to be in the top 5% of players on the leader board.

edit: the above has always been my argument. I've been consistent in this and will remain consistent.

QTIP

Why the hell are you first sayign the tourney ticket is $55 cash when you are calculating how much people are getting bck from the beast, and then when someone says that's wrong, you change your mind and say uuuh well, there's SOME ev in it

Take out the 55 entirely, then at the bottom put a foot note saying players get a $50 tourney ticket but because most cash players wont play this, it's value is low.

Either the tourney ticket is 55$ in your pocket or it isn't, pick one and go with it, you can't have both just to make the beast look better on paper than it is