Quote:
Originally Posted by p2 dog, p2
if you are a good player you are surrendeing expectation with every hand u miss in a tourney, therefore every minute that goes by that u could have registered and did not, you are surrendeing expectation. there is no doubt my ROI would correlate with when I get in the tourney. get in at the start, highest ROI. get in at last minute of late reg, my ROI has decreased, most likely by a fair margin. no doubt u can still churn profits by late regging but I think what I stated holds true. a total fish is prolly a guy who benefits most by late regging really late.
You've never been to the WSOP Main Event series then. The first registrations are almost ALL new players to the event. Some of the pros, Hellmuth, make such a stupid spectacle when they enter and it is 4+ hours after the tournament starts. I've played the series three different years going back to 2004, nothing has changed. The room is half empty at the start. Tables are brought in over the course of hours due to all the later registrations. I see no correlation to the timing you sit down and winning rate. Last week in the 6 PM BIG10 I mucked my cards almost the entire first hour. Most of your chips in a tournament are captured in short runs where you catch great flops. If you play in the higher stakes MTTs, there is not typically any large gaps in the LB the first hour or two. Keep the pot/risk small until it truly matters is how most experienced players play. A $3 donkfest with 3-5 hours of late registration may be a different scenario altogether, but if you are playing with decent players, there is not much movement in the early levels.
I will say that you are correct in a theoretic way, but that surrendering of value can just as easily be offset by variance and sloppy play that hits big against you big pocket pairs.
Registering super late is/should based on the math. Use a bastardized version of implied odds/EV and apply it to the entry point. If you need to jump over 200 people to cash...go for a walk instead. If there is only 15-20 players and the bubble is less than a triple up, it is worth a shot if you can seat at the right table. If there are other players that will be to your left that are not very deep in chips, they are probably vulnerable, especially if they have been sitting for a long time and now stressing the bubble. Sitting at a table where everyone has you out chipped 3+/1....back to going for some fresh air.
It is only a preference. I don't have any trouble starting with players that have more chips than I do, say halfway through the registration period. I am pretty confident in my ability to chip up if I catch some cards. Others feel most at ease when it is a level playing field, like level 1.
Super late registration in a micro game is good practice for learning patience. There will be times that you are outside the bubble, (even if you start on time....), and feel under the gun to make a move. Spending a couple of bucks and entering the last minute or two of a little MTT can get you used to walking up to the bubble from the bottom of the LB. Early registration can help you build patience in waiting through the long periods of time when you are getting Q/3 offsuit almost every hand. Both have aspects have their use for building/re-enforcing skills and patience levels, aside from that it is just a preference and not a formulation of when is the best time to enter.