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Am I getting hosed or just variance? Am I getting hosed or just variance?

02-10-2017 , 05:39 AM
Over the past couple days I've lost 9 times in a row with Ace-big vs Ace-small AIPF in MTTs. By my calculations the chances of this happening are 0.25^9 = 0.0004% (correct me if I'm wrong)

I initially posted this in BBV and someone's mention of bots and WPN sketchiness made me wonder a little... so what say you?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...orite-1653033/
02-10-2017 , 06:58 AM
Lol @ asking for advice in bbv or expecting a sensical response there . That variance op. Bots have nothing to do with what you are describing.
02-10-2017 , 09:33 AM
WPN has a lot of bots and since the bots are paying rake, they probably don't give a damn. But what you are experiencing is probably just really bad variance.
02-10-2017 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeckoRiver
Lol @ asking for advice in bbv or expecting a sensical response there . That variance op. Bots have nothing to do with what you are describing.
Yeah, I wasn't expecting advice there. I just felt like venting and that's the appropriate place to do so.
02-10-2017 , 11:00 AM
Fishiness is in the air. No one ever talks about run good on ACR
02-10-2017 , 11:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blitzT4M4Y0theGOAT
Fishiness is in the air. No one ever talks about run good on ACR
Not many players rush to forums when they are on a heater. I ran $20 over EV in a 1k hand session yesterday.

As for the bot debate, I see a lot of foreign players but no real indications of bots.
02-10-2017 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CandyKreep
Over the past couple days I've lost 9 times in a row with Ace-big vs Ace-small AIPF in MTTs. By my calculations the chances of this happening are 0.25^9 = 0.0004% (correct me if I'm wrong)

I initially posted this in BBV and someone's mention of bots and WPN sketchiness made me wonder a little... so what say you?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...orite-1653033/
A thread like this would only be allowed to live on this forum with analytics, 9 sample size not worthwhile. This thread belongs here instead http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28...dition-255990/

Quote:
Originally Posted by nick619
WPN has a lot of bots and since the bots are paying rake, they probably don't give a damn. But what you are experiencing is probably just really bad variance.
While I don't think you meant this post as a rant, ACR's bot problem seems largely overstated due to tons of tin foil hat posts on this forum. That being said I don't think anyone would disagree that bots do exist on every site and that sites do need to wage a constant war against improving technology.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blitzT4M4Y0theGOAT
Fishiness is in the air. No one ever talks about run good on ACR
Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99
Not many players rush to forums when they are on a heater. I ran $20 over EV in a 1k hand session yesterday.

As for the bot debate, I see a lot of foreign players but no real indications of bots.

As paratrooper said here, people aren't just talking about run good occurrences. I spun back to back $6200 spins on ACR for the $2100 main event (was about a 1 in 165 occurence or 1 in 20000 occurence back to back) no post. People win the ACR million MTTs no post. People have won the max prizes in Jackpots no post.

The people who I have sharkscoped that I assume are winners generally have winning graphs, the people who I assume as losing generally have had losing graphs.

You have to be careful with noise. Just because a particular group shouts the loudest doesn't mean it should be taken at face value.

Last edited by Thrash370; 02-10-2017 at 02:24 PM.

      
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