Quote:
Originally Posted by chopsy2
Can anyone with some insight into these games say wether these games appear to be more/ less beatable than the jp without hitting a big multiplier.
I think that a grinder of 3-max jackpots will be less dependent on the top 3 multipliers (than a 9-max grinder on payouts from the prog. JP), as the top 3 payout tiers of Jackpot Poker are 'fed' by merely 1.5% of the buy-in. (Replace the 100-2500 multipliers by 0 in SwongSim and you'll see that the 'rake' will jump from 6% to 7.5%.)
As I pessimistically guesstimated above, there will be 9% rake plus the 5.6% jackpot fee in 9-max adding up to 14.6% (I'd like to turn out wrong, but this follows the logic similar to the one why 3-max JP Poker has twice the rake of HU hypers [and even 2.5 times bigger if we exclude the top 3 multipliers], namely, tons of money will be spent on marketing and there will hopefully be more recreationals per game and more traffic, which will warrant the higher rake). Thus, in order to break even without the help of the progressive JP, one will need to have an edge over the field equivalent to an 11% ROI in a non-JP 9-max hyper.
However, as I said, SNG 2.0 is supposed to have more recs per tourney than a usual 9m hyper, attracted by a larger JP than in 3-man JP Poker*, so that edge might be attainable. For comparison, the ROW 888 poker network has 4-man hyper JP SNGs that are guaranteed to end within 6 minutes except 10x+ multipliers (after that point, the server puts all the players all-in automatically), have 7% rake at the $15 level, but if you had a chance to witness the skill of their players, you wouldn't doubt that the 7% rake is beatable. Well, ACR of course has a tougher field, but otoh, 9-mans last longer and allow for bigger edges and Sit & Crush really helps.
Moreover, as I guesstimated, the 'mini' JPs (10% of the grand JP) will be hit once in 3467 games, which is not that rare in a grinder's career. The 'mini' JPs will add 'bout tree fiddy (no kidding) percent points to the ROI.
Plus of course, $10 grinders will be scoring decently in the Sit & Crush race. With VIP rewards and bonuses, this will add 5-7 more percent points to the ROI.
Assuming that Sit & Crush + VIP + reloads return 6% of the total buy-in, in order to break even with 'mini' JPs included, one will need to have an edge over the field corresponding to being breakeven pre-rakeback in non-JP 9m hypers, which is of course doable.
Overall, I think $10 SNG 2.0 will be beatable by a grinder by at least a few % ROI incl. rake-based rewards. Considering that it will hopefully be possible to put in mass volume there (more than in the current SNG lobby), I think a $50 hourly profit will be doable.
* ACR might have made the JP of its 3-max hypers progressive too, but they'd have to make the contribution rate into it much smaller, not more than 3% of each buy-in, in order for the games to remain 'beatable', and then the JP wouldn't grow as fast as they'd like to. The 9-man structure seems to allow for faster growth of the prog. JP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chopsy2
Also, just an idea here but would it make sense for each multiplier also payout one more spot than the next?
In the video, only the 2nd, 5th, 8th and 9th non-JP multipliers are shown, i.e. the ones corresponding to 1, 4, 7 and 8 green cards opened. I think all the other (intermediate) multipliers appeared in fact during the prize pool selection process, but those moments were cut out of the video to fit it into the 30-second limit.
As per the table I posted above, the 2nd multiplier pays 3 places, 5th - 6 places, 8th - 9 places, as seen in the video. So I conjectured that indeed, each multiplier until the 8th does pay one more spot than the next. But maybe there's a jump from the 4th paying 3 to the 5th paying 6, so that there are fewer prize distributions to memorize. We can't know that for sure until the game goes live.
Last edited by coon74; 09-06-2016 at 09:30 PM.