I think you'll have the same quarters as spring with Sword replacing Bullets
the season really starts in the quarters, Blue/White/SKT/Shield are all pretty close in circuit points, likely 2 of the 4 get autobids and the other 2 fight with Blaze/Frost/Arrows/Sword for the last slot
I think its obvious who comes out of groups A+B, group C we could see an upset for 1 slot.
Group D is the most random group. Any 2 teams could get out.
I think SKT S is the only wildcard in the entire bracket, I think Frost is vulnerable. White is the #2 team in the world right now and they are getting through easily.
group D is going to be Blaze/Arrows, Jin Air is one of the fodder teams like IM#1 can make OGN often but can't beat a top 8 team
My predictions for groups (in no particular order):
Group A: Samsung Blue and SKT K - Probably the most clear-cut group to pick IMO. Blue and K are just on another level from the IM teams.
Group B: Najin Shield and Sword - Same as group A.
Group C: Samsung White and CJ Frost - SKT S has a chance if the god-mode version shows up and/or Renekton/Ziggs aren't banned, but they aren't consistent enough for me to pick them over Frost.
Group D: CJ Blaze and KT Arrows - Both of these teams got lucky to get this group IMO, since they'd be dogs in most other groups. Stealths might have a chance if the **** version of KT A shows up.
CJ&M or whatever (the owners of OGN) are blocking automatically ALL the OGN uploads on youtube. That is why you can only find the games on their own channel (in korean) and they take like 2 days to upload a game.
Has been a very interesting group stage so far, the big shocker is blaze/frost are both in very bad shape going into their 3rd set(Korea quarters without either would be crazy, Blaze had a scare last year but beat SKT S in best of 1)
Shield needs a ton of help to get out of group(Sword 2-0(1-1 meh) vs JinAir, KTB/Jin Air 1-1)
SKT K plays IM1 so they should be ok, but a 1-1 and Blue troll 0-2 means they are out(blue plays first so this never happens)
only 3 teams are through Samsung Blue, KT Arrows, Najin Sword
Samsung White/SKT K are 95+% through
Frost needs 2-0 vs SKT S so that's probably around 25-75
Blaze needs 2-0 vs Stealths or a miracle KT A 0-2 probably around 35-65
Group B is tricky, I think Shield gets through anyway a lot since KTB and Falcons suck and if they 1-1, Sword will take care of business for the sister team
If syndra/TF are viable w/ their lack of mobility it def means more immobile mids are viable.
Good point and with the meta going away from assassins mid i can see the long range no movement mids making a return. The issue i see though is that her cc is easily avoidable unless its a 2nd cc and that her cds are on the long side for little damage output.
Samsung White vs SKT K
Samsung Blue vs Jin Air Stealths
Circuit Points
Samsung Blue 450
SKT K 450
Samsung White 375
Najin Shield 325
KT Bullets 190(out)
CJ Blaze 175(out)
----------------
Najin Sword 120
KT Arrows 40
SKT S 30
Jin Air Stealths 20
1st 400
2nd 225
3rd 150
4th 100
NLB 70/60/50
The top half is very weak, and only Shield can lock up a top2 overall slot, barring total chaos. CJ Blaze and KT Bullets despite horrid seasons are still technically alive for worlds. Arrows/Sword/S can win this season and still finish 3rd/4th and nearly drawing dead at top 2.
Arrows>Shield
Sword>SKT S
White>SKT K
Blue>Jin Air
Blue>White
Arrows>Sword
Blue>Arrows
White>Sword
the real matchups are White vs K, and the winner vs Blue as the real final since which ever team that does get through the bottom will easily 3-0, maybe 3-1 on a bad day
in that situation
Blue 1st
White 2nd
SKT 3rd
Shield 4th
KT Arrows 5th
Sword 6th
Arrows>Sword
Arrows>Shield round 2
SKT K>Arrows for last worlds slot