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01-25-2016 , 05:20 PM

#51

Anssi A

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,202

Diamond not playing this week, should make G2 vs UOL really good.

Quote

01-29-2016 , 09:02 AM

#52

derwipok

Power Ranger

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 54,312

Splyce > Fnatic @3.4 is kinda tempting.

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01-29-2016 , 09:07 AM

#53

Anssi A

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,202

Quote:

Originally Posted by derwipok

Splyce > Fnatic @3.4 is kinda tempting.

I'm "all-in". (as in bet what little I had left on Stars)

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01-29-2016 , 09:46 AM

#54

Quagmyer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 8,256

tread carefully with that

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01-29-2016 , 04:50 PM

#55

Quagmyer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 8,256

hope you didnt pull the trigger on that

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01-30-2016 , 11:20 AM

#56

Anssi A

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,202

I did, although I did much larger bet with G2 vs UOL. I think the Splyce bet was still fine, I think they were going to win more than 29% of time. Wunderwear or whatever the toplaner is named is really bad though.

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02-05-2016 , 11:04 PM

#57

Quagmyer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 8,256

my best cash so far this season in EU

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02-06-2016 , 03:45 AM

#58

Anssi A

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,202

What site is that?

Quote

02-06-2016 , 03:08 PM

#59

Jackitos

srs biz

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 17,561

Looks like draftkings

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02-06-2016 , 03:11 PM

#60

Quagmyer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 8,256

yes

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02-07-2016 , 01:59 AM

#61

Quagmyer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 8,256

Im on fire. lemme know the next time u wanna bet.

Quote

02-07-2016 , 05:09 PM

#62

NiSash1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 9,185

Got 52.5% winrate on bets for the year. Not sure what the proper term is, but EV or breakevenpoint or whatever it might be called is 50.2%. Pretty in line with last year.

Unfortunately I used different sizes for bets and didn't run good in the biggest ones, so I'm slightly down. If I had used units to gain X, I'd be up obviously. Started out the year pretty insane and was up massively then I went on a nice 11 loss streak.

I'm still hunted, everytime I bet very big when I'm confident I get ****ed. I prob will never forget my tilt when SK lost vs UOL because POE got Baron with ori ulti against TWO SMITES.

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02-13-2016 , 08:23 PM

#63

Anssi A

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,202

Echo Fox vs NRG at 3.9 seems pretty good.

Quote

02-15-2016 , 12:30 AM

#64

Quagmyer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 8,256

Froggen on Corki is freelo

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02-20-2016 , 05:33 PM

#65

Anssi A

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,202

Hopefully some brave souls took the 10.5 :1 for REN :P

Quote

02-27-2016 , 04:21 PM

#66

WateryBoil

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 5,762

lol the tsm line has shifted from -180 to -115 to -140 lmao

i grabbed it at -120

Quote

03-05-2016 , 05:11 PM

#67

labteh

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 27

Pinnacle has prop bets for NALCS Spring split winner. I find IMT to be a little overrated on their probability to win the split. Thoughts?

Quote

03-05-2016 , 06:23 PM

#68

NiSash1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 9,185

72% to win means that they have to win each Bo5

x^2 = 0.72
x = 0.84

84% of the time, that translates to single game winrates within each Bo5 of ~71%, their record currently vs the other playoff teams is 7:1 (I count both NRG and TL as they are tied) --> 87.5%.

I don't see any value at all there.

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03-05-2016 , 06:40 PM

#69

Anssi A

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,202

I think the 8x for FNC to win EU LCS is quite alluring though.

Quote

03-05-2016 , 06:50 PM

#70

NiSash1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 9,185

Remember that only Top 2 gets a bye, so they would need to play three Bo 5 to win.

Quote

03-05-2016 , 09:16 PM

#71

Anssi A

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,202

Quote:

Originally Posted by NiSash1337

Remember that only Top 2 gets a bye, so they would need to play three Bo 5 to win.

Yeah, I don't see that as a huge problem though. If they can't get their team to work well enough to beat OR/UOL, they are not beating the good teams either.

FNC does have best support org in EU so I think they should be in pretty good shape for playoffs as far as picks and strategies are involved, the question is if they can really come together as a team, like in today's games vs QG.

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03-06-2016 , 08:37 AM

#72

labteh

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 27

Quote:

Originally Posted by NiSash1337

My bad, I was saying that there's value in them NOT getting the title. Top teams seem to really get an idea how to play against them and how they really haven't played any bo5 series yet, the other top teams will likely beat them in playoffs.

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03-06-2016 , 09:12 AM

#73

NiSash1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 9,185

No I understood you and in my opinion there is no value in betting against them.

Who could really challenge them? TSM and CLG did not impress at all at IEM. NRG and TL are really weak, which leaves C9.

Huni is obviously 100x better than Balls, Reignover better than Rush, Jensen maybe slighlty better than Pobelter and IMT botlane >>> C9 botlane. So I honestly don't see them contested at all.

Also let's not forget that Huni and Reignover won like 30 games in a row in regularseason, when you count their EU results as well.

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03-06-2016 , 09:32 AM

#74

labteh

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 27

Sure invidually they are all amazing, but I find the previous success of huni and reignover duo a little irrelevant. C9 and CLG sure put up a hell of a fight against them in the latest games. Also C9 is godlike in best-of series and I'm kind of skeptical of IMT's ability to adapt.

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03-22-2016 , 11:20 PM

#75

NiSash1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 9,185

GG LoL

Got an email from pinnacle that they pull out of the German market, other betting sites have garbage odds and don't let the lines open till after champselect so don't really think I have much of an edge, if any. Don't really have a reason to watch any competitive any more.

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