Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
1. Is KK ahead of BB's median calling hand there?
2. If BB is more likely to call after 3 : pat than 3:3, you've clearly found yourself a way to print money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS
1. it's ahead before the draw but not necessarily after. i'm a 2 to 1 favourite to still be good and I think he is definitely calling more than 50% of the time.
Bear with me because i'm sleep deprived but i think your math is misapplied there.
Assuming he checks 100% of his range, 30% of the time he will have improved and will call (or raise). For your bet to be break-even you need to be ahead 50% of the time it's called or raised (if he never c/r bluffs).
So of the remaining 70% of his c/call range, you need to be ahead 50 of the 70% (i.e. 72% of the time he has one pair and calls).
If he's calling 50% of the time with one pair; but 72% of the time he calls with one pair, you're ahead; then he'd have to be starting with a very very wide range, like 66+ or something.
Anyway, if you agree that you're behind his median hand here, then betting has to be -EV, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS
I wouldn't say I don't, but I would say I bet less often. The logic behind that is that if they see you draw three and they are sitting on TT-KK they aren't so automatically calling if you bet because the assumption is that you either had AA and are betting UI or you have improved.
Then you should open 99-TT (or whatever is just below your opening range here) and bluff it ui, right?
Seems like that's a far better way to balance than turning big pairs into snows. Big pairs want to make big two pairs and get paid off by little two pairs.
Back to my point: Unless he's calling wider 3 : pat than 3 : 3, snowing is wasting EV because of the times he outdraws you.