Quote:
Originally Posted by prof3ta
Here's a good one: Calling pat hands.
Is there a strategy/math or is it always read dependent? pot ratio? different in pot limit than limit? Call with at least JJJ+? Raising? Or always fold?
Yeah- I'd like to hear more about that too. The answer I come up with when I think about it in limit draw is likely wrong.
Here's what I came up with:
Assume you raise from EP with AAxxx and are 3-bet from the button and call. No other players. There are now 3 big bets into the pot. You draw three and button stands pat. You end up with AAxxx. Button bets. Do you call with 4:1 pot odds?
If he's pat-bluffing with less than 2pr more than one time in 4, then this is a call. So the first order question is: does the opponent pat-bluff more than once for every four time he has a legit pat hand?
The second order question is: how often does he 3-bet and pat a hand like aces up or tripps in order to make you try to 'catch' a pat-bluff with a hand like aces or a low 2-pr?
A legit pat hand will be dealt every 131 hands, or once out of ~22 times to someone at a full six handed table.
I would expect it to be reasonable for a thinking, aggressive, tricky opponent to pat-bluff only occasionally so that the tendancy isn't noticable or obvious. A reasonable tendancy would be once every 250 hands... would also expect same opponent to pat 'not-bluff' by drawing zero to a good 2-pair at about the same frequency.
So if this is true then it seems like if you have any read that an opponent is thinking, aggressive, bluffy, or tricky that you can't go far wrong by flipping a coin and calling when you can't beat a pat hand, but can call a bluff, on heads and folding on tails.
Would love to hear how far off this is...Game theory kinda suggests that a thinking opponent should be pat-bluffing much more than once every 250 hands, but do they really?