Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGusPair
I can't tell how much he lost on PokerStars playing 2-7TD via HighStakesDB, but Viktor "Isildur1" Blom has won about $1.2m on Full Tilt since it came back, including about $1.45m in the past month, over ~6k hands.
Has anyone been watching (or playing)? Has his game changed so significantly since he was written off as a losing agro monkey on Stars? Or is it just some crazy run good period? I mean, at $1.5/3k, $1.45m is only about 240BB, over ~6k hands, roughly 4BB/100.
Can you be a losing player and run that hot over a 6k hand period? I think I've heard of people going on similar/bigger heaters, but I'd have assumed they were winning players.
Isn't $1.45M, 480BB? And a win rate of 8BB/100? This makes a BIG difference.
If Isildur has an SD of 25BB/100 (likely to be close to this since he is LAG and shorthanded), then the 95% confidence interval is roughly +/- 387BB (2 SDs in each direction). So a breakeven player would expect to have a win rate ranging from -6.45 to +6.45BB/100 over 6k hands. So if he had a 4BB/100 run (1500/3000 blinds or 3k/6k limit), then he definitely could have a losing longterm winrate. If it's 750/1500 blinds (1.5k/3k limit), then a breakeven player running 8BB/100 would have to run 2.48 SDs above normal which and should only happen about 0.66% of the time. He could be on a massive heater, but it's more likely he has improved in the game.
Basically, 1.5k/3k TD is just a variance joke. In the poker world, I doubt anyone is really rolled to play it longterm. Considering isildur's past though, I wouldn't be shocked if he has significantly improved at HS TD. I personally haven't been watching though.