Hi, I have a strategy question.
See image in the link at the bottom. What do you do here? This is OFC/P, QQ goes to FL.
I have not seen any 2, 3, 6, J or 10 in my previous discards.
Obviously I could make the middle straight and there are four J or 10 to make the full below. Or I could dump the cards at top and bottom and try to make at least two pair in the middle.
Ignoring any strategy based on the order of how the cards came out, statistically, what is the best play?
Please prove your answer mathematically. Thanks.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7Q...ew?usp=sharing
My calculated solution:
on the last card:
P(J or 10) = 0.395
P(at least 2 of {2,3,6}) = 0.605
value of hitting my hand:
if I choose a straight in middle:
assume I scoop: 6, fh bottom: 6, straight middle: 4, AA top: 9 = 25.
if I choose at least 2 pr in middle
assume I lose 2 row: -1, AA top: 9 = 8
E[Jor10] = 0.395 * 25 = 9.88
E[2pr middle] = 0.605 * 8 = 4.84
Now, you have to include the value of going to fantasy land even if my points were lower on the main hand.
So, what is the expected number of points from a FL hand in QQ?
If it is > 5 than I should go for 2 pr in middle, else I should go for Jor10 at bottom.
Last edited by unknownone; 01-16-2016 at 06:00 AM.