How many are seated at the table? Assuming at least five, I probably don't raise before the flop with this hand, especially when at a table with someone who might re-raise. One can make a very good case for folding this hand before the flop in a game where at least five of you are dealt cards. This is not a very good starting hand.
Quote:
***FLOP***
J89
Decision #1, what to discard? Good chance someone flopped a straight, I could be up against a set of jacks, AJ of diamonds etc...
I mucked my 10d.
My choice too.
Quote:
BB checks, I bet 30.00 Button makes it 120 all day, BB shoves all in for not much more at all. Hero?
Gadzooks!!!
Everybody likes this flop??? (rhetorical)
At any rate, the probability your trip nines will end up a full house after this flop is 0.341. That makes it only 1.936 to 1 against your hand ending up as part of a full house.
Assuming Button actually has a straight and raises all-in, you lose your implied pot odds. (That's a good enough reason to not raise with this hand before the flop). In that case, your pot odds are (48+164+199) to 199, or 2.065 to 1. Since those are better than the odds against making your hand, you have favorable odds to call if the Villains have straights. (You actually have better hand odds than 1.936 if we take cards that make straights out of the deck). But what if one of them has flopped a set of jacks?
A set of jacks is the danger here. Your hand is dominated by a set of jacks. But there is only about a 1.7% chance one of these two opponents has a set of jacks (assuming nobody is wacko enough to see the flop for $16 with JJJ).
2*129/15180 =~1.7%
In other words, it's about 60 to 1 neither opponent has a set of jacks.
It's fairly likely an opponent, has flopped a straight, assuming they see the flop with trash hands.
6*3 QQT
4*3 QTT
4*3*4 QT7
3*4 TT7
3*6 T77
4*3*35 QTX
3*4*35 T7X
18+12+48+12+18+420+420=948
2*948/15180 =~12.5%
With
two opponents, it's slightly more likely one has flopped a straight and the other has flopped a set of jacks than both have flopped straights.
3*2 QQT
3*1 QTT
3*1*4 QT7
1*4 TT7
2*6 T77
3*1*34 QTX
2*4*34 T7X
6+3+12+4+12+102+102=241
241/15180=~1.59%. (This is all the further I have to go to conclude two straights are not as likely as a set of jacks and one straight).
I think there's a greater chance BB actually has the straight and Button's raise to $120 was a semi-bluff (or bluff).
I bite the bullet and call the double raise hoping for a board pair and neither opponent making quads or jacks full on the turn or river.
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How do you feel if you had kept the 10 of diamonds?
I don't know. In retrospect, maybe that would have been better.
Since Hero discarded the T
, neither opponent can have the straight and also a better diamond draw, or a set of jacks or eights plus a better diamond draw. So if Hero had kept the T
, he would be basically drawing for a queen or a diamond, 12 outs twice. 12/46+34/46*12/45=0.261+0.197=0.458. It's almost even that Hero will make a diamond flush (presumably the winning hand here) or a queen high flush (which possibly ties an opponent with a queen high flush). But who knew at the time of the discard they'd both go nuts after this flop? (rhetorical)
Buzz