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Archie Archie

01-17-2024 , 03:28 AM
$8-16

Hero opens QJT98. Cutoff (a little splashy) and button (pretty solid) both call. Blinds fold.

Pat/1/1.

I bet, call, PS raises. I call, LS calls.

Pat/1/Pat.

I check, LS leads, PS raises....hero? If you call, you check the spoiler for the next action...

Spoiler:
If you call, it gets 3!/4! back to you
Archie Quote
01-17-2024 , 07:18 AM
Its an interesting spot.

I think the most useful approach is calculating backwards from the cost of seeing showdown if the betting is capped for both turn and river.

If I did the math right, Hero is calling 8 big bets to win 15 big bets at most (against a low), and optimistically maybe between 8 to 10 big bets on average. Of course, the action will frequently NOT be capped, but enough big bets are likely to go in that I'm not sure Hero should think too hard about all possible permutations.

It's hard for me to believe I'm saying this, but I believe Hero is mostly indifferent to calling or folding the initial 2 bets on 2nd. And that given the population norms of 8/16 are tight, Hero should fold if he expects to face the full whipsaw over 2 streets. A q hi straight is low on the ranking of overall high hands given the action.
Archie Quote
01-17-2024 , 12:18 PM
I guess I would want to know how people play in this game. My experience is everyone that cold calls pre and D1 is going for some sort of low, so that makes your hand a lot better. I would somewhat also think these two fools are cheating me lol, what's with this donk lead into the pat
Archie Quote
01-17-2024 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey
I guess I would want to know how people play in this game. My experience is everyone that cold calls pre and D1 is going for some sort of low, so that makes your hand a lot better. I would somewhat also think these two fools are cheating me lol, what's with this donk lead into the pat
I can definitely rule out the latter.

There are a lot of cold calls pre with 4 flush and 2 pair.

I can also tell you, the original patter either has a wheel, or a hand far stronger than my straight. At the minimum, when she raises the second draw, she has Ace hi flush or better.
Archie Quote
01-17-2024 , 01:41 PM
honestly these kinds of hands/situations give me a lot of anxiety lol

at the end of the day, as already mentioned, and in my experience at these stakes, most flat/D1 ranges are low-ish type hands, but i also just wouldn't be surprised to see the random flush or baby 2p that made a boat. one thing i do think is quite salient is your player pool's propensity to overplay lows or do spewy things to drive someone out of the pot. like, do you think a 23457 will go bonkers here? A2567? like i've been in really similar situations to this where people just plain overvalue their hands, and archie is also a rather underplayed game so it can be hard to tell exactly who thinks what is what.

anyway, i'd probably call cause of that, but i'd note that i never think good things are happening here. and i'd also note that my human bias wouldn't allow me to tell if that feeling is right or not for what to do. anyway, anxiety, so eff this hand. eff this post!
Archie Quote
01-17-2024 , 03:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kisada
honestly these kinds of hands/situations give me a lot of anxiety lol

at the end of the day, as already mentioned, and in my experience at these stakes, most flat/D1 ranges are low-ish type hands, but i also just wouldn't be surprised to see the random flush or baby 2p that made a boat. one thing i do think is quite salient is your player pool's propensity to overplay lows or do spewy things to drive someone out of the pot. like, do you think a 23457 will go bonkers here? A2567? like i've been in really similar situations to this where people just plain overvalue their hands, and archie is also a rather underplayed game so it can be hard to tell exactly who thinks what is what.

anyway, i'd probably call cause of that, but i'd note that i never think good things are happening here. and i'd also note that my human bias wouldn't allow me to tell if that feeling is right or not for what to do. anyway, anxiety, so eff this hand. eff this post!

There is no chance either player has a 7 low. And, I am glad I am not the only one feeling this pain. It least it is only $8-16
Archie Quote
01-17-2024 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3for3poker
I can definitely rule out the latter.

There are a lot of cold calls pre with 4 flush and 2 pair.

I can also tell you, the original patter either has a wheel, or a hand far stronger than my straight. At the minimum, when she raises the second draw, she has Ace hi flush or better.
Well I mean its not very interesting then right? It seems like an incredibly easy fold with that info
Archie Quote
01-18-2024 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey
Well I mean its not very interesting then right? It seems like an incredibly easy fold with that info
Yeah, I think you are right. I did fold, but it felt bad.

As many had speculated, I was against 2 lows, the button had a wheel and the other bettor a 6. I thought he was kind of nuts putting the 3 bet there...
Archie Quote
01-18-2024 , 04:09 PM
When these sort of things happen to me I try to think of it as a good opportunity to question my assumptions about what my opponents are doing. They may be more optimistic / spewy with lows than you previously thought and you might notice that more going forward.
Archie Quote
01-18-2024 , 05:38 PM
Knowing the extent we should deviate from optimal strategy in limit games is never easy with aggro fish in MW pots. Its ok to make some incorrect folds for good reasons. That Hero is low in range and villain who raised is tight are good reasons.

Archie is a very difficult game, even highly experienced players struggle and frequently have different opinions in similar spots.
Archie Quote

      
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