Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheRail15
In your spot I'm checking a ton, and 100% against a bunch of opponents. I can't tell you the number of times I've xr here got called and had it gone 1/2 or pat/2. As you say, most villains bet their whole range (or most of it).
Sure villain is going to fold the unimproved 345 but he just isn't going to end up with that hand very often and if you have a wide leading range here, you're going to get punished when he makes any reasonable hand at all. Like in his spot I'm probably looking for any excuse to peel including a bunch of hands where I catch a rough 3card+ and will draw 2 if you pat... So just strengthen your range by checking a bunch of improvement and either xc or xr depending on how strong your hand is.
No, I think in general most of my opponents play fairly straightforward, bet when they improve and check when they don't when the number of the cards drawn is the same. Maybe my game isn't as far along on the evolution string. Anyhow I was thinking afterwards how he had what is seemingly such a profitable bet and didn't make it.
Anyhow, let's look at some math. With $300 in the pot it looks like he needs 21% fold equity to profit and that's assuming his hand spontaneously combusts and mucks if we call or c/r.
How often do we have a hand? I've run some numbers (and checked them with probability forum) for the 1st draw. I have not run them for the second draw, but they would be somewhat similar although more favorable to improving. But these should be close enough...
7 Badugi and 7 Low 4%
7 Badugi Only 14%
7 Low Only 5%
Four Card 7, No Badugi 34%
No Improvement 43%
100%
On 2nd draw we probably have around zero improvement 40% of the time. Even if he knows we are waiting to pounce with our strongest hands he can still bet anyway.