I withdraw my comment about hand 2 if it was HU. Didn't realize

Unless HUHU is different than HU, why is HU typed in twice?

I have played some but even if I didn’t I think it’s pretty comical if you think a limit poker game (w/o dealing with different flops) is so complicated that it takes ten years of leatherassing to be able to handle the analysis. Understanding that someone might snow catch and factoring it into the EV comparison of lines is not exactly quantum physics. It was already factored into my analysis anyway. To some degree I think many poker players live in a bubble of sorts. What they do is not as genius as they seem to think.

I wrote my series on Archie after only playing around 50 or so hands lifetime.
A friend who asked me to analyze it helped me out with some of the experience assumptions such as what hands people play and call with but other than that I drink a few cocktails, put my thinking cap on and just cranked it.

The combination of my extensive mathematical modeling and the fact that I’ve basically studied every form of Poker gave me this skill set.

My last post in Draw Forum, terrible vibes in here

too bad it was wasted on you lol

As I understand it, old LHE convention. HUHU = "heads up heads up" means a 2-handed game as opposed to a pot where only two players have cards.

I have no reason to doubt your models or your skill at the game, but IME those who come here with an attitude of learning both get more and give more to the forum. Sorry to hear this didn't work out for you. Good luck at the tables.

Just popping in to say thanks for the well wishes! Yeah I agree that that this place would be better of if it was more conducive to give and take and discuss ideas and not just follow the herd.

Best wishes to you bud!

Gentlemen, I know this is a short retirement but I had a little time this morning to do some quick analysis.

Just looked at what is going to happen against one specific hand 8753 and compare our EV on turn vs patting vs breaking. Assuming this hand will not check/raise us the average EV of our bet on the turn is approximately:

Equity of 97326
8753 improves 25.6% 15% 4%
8753 Bricks 74.4% 75% 56%
60%

EV .60BB

On average we have around 60% equity on the bet going in on the turn and that is if we always break when he check/calls and pats. I am assuming he continues to draw if he makes a 98753 or worse. If you want we can discuss this assumption in wide ranges, but just because he breaks this does not mean I do not realize he may call on the end with a hand worse than that.

Now when we break I just grided it out to account for every combination of possibilities. Here I assume we bet UI as that has to clearly be the best strategy at the very close to the top of our 1cd range and it's a big win when he checks and breaks a ten:

Prob Bets Hero Equity
V8 H7 5% 2 100%
V8 H8 2% 1 0%
V8 H9 2% 1 0%
V8 HT 3% 1 19%
V8 HJ 3% 1 19%
V8 HN 12% 1 19%
V9 H7 1% 2 100%
V9 H8 1% 1 100%
V9 H9 1% 1 100%
V9 HT 1% 1 33%
V9 HJ 1% 1 33%
V9 HN 4% 1 33%
VN H7 12% 1 100%
VN H8 5% 1 82%
VN H9 5% 1 74%
VN HT 7% 1 64%
VN HJ 7% 1 54%
VN HN 31% 1 56%
100%

So it can be summarized as something like this:

Avg Equity
Prob 2 bets 6% 2 100% 12%
Prob 1 bet 94% 1 55% 55%
67%
EV BB .67BB

By drawing we have the opportunity of two bets going in with some probability on the turn with 100% equity but when one bet goes in we have on around 55% equity.

This analysis captures some of the advantages of position in a D1/D1 situation that simply looking at "hot/cold" equity does not.

Speaking frankly here, I thought the difference would be a little greater, I had envisioned in my mind a slightly greater difference of around .20BB or so, and this being a limit game I look for every edge out there.

That said, we are running this against a hand that never check/raises us.

And I have studied many hours of high limit 27 TD videos. Paying close attention to hands and plays that were shown regardless of hero being involved within the video. Several players including oogee would 3 bet turn with any hand they were planning on staying pat with. Or at least he went through a stage of this according to high limit guest DD had with him in analyzing the video. But I did see plays like that being run. Obviously we welcome this strategy when we have a draw to a seven.

V8 H7 5% 2 100%
V8 H8 2% 1 0%

Apologies for crappy formatting but let me quickly explain what is going on here.

First line means villain makes an 8, Hero makes a 7, 5% probability of this event happening, 2 bets go in and Hero has 100% equity

Second line means villain makes an 8, we freeze with 87632, 2% chance of this happening, one bet goes in and we have 0% equity (actually that is not correct as I'm looking at it now we do beat 87653 so I need to revise and that .67 would go up)

I did this fast

and VN or HN essentially means a brick or pair was caught, N= No hand

Welcome back. I think the assumption that villain x/c pats and we should break is almost always going to be correct ime.

I'm not sure how to quantify this factor, but the fact that the hand is huhu and villain did not 3b their D2 from the BB should mean they are drawing much rougher, on average, than if the BB is defending a CO open in a ring game.

There's not too many guys that can profitably vbet a 976 on the river, but Oogee (aka Joe Blow #2) might be one of them, depending on the dynamics of the match - like if he's been caught snowing 3 out of the last 10 hand or something. But from what I can tell, having only played w him in the last few years, his game has apparently evolved and he's got all the moves.

One assumption I would challenge revolves around the prospects of villain x/c and breaking a T. For the most part, every villain is going to bet/pat any T. There are very few players who employ a pretty complex strat (imo) of checking 1-1 turn spots w J's, T's, nutty hands to x/r, and a few bluffs to x/r. If you x/b, they will pat everything and play the river accordingly. It's tough style to master and play against, just as developing a GTO cc/3b mix strat from the SB against one raiser in LHE would be.

Thanks buddy.

Yes agree that they are definitely drawning rougher on average which is why I chose 8753 as a representative hand for this example. However, weaker D2 hands that just call the raise such as 754 and 853 can turn into very strong draws when they get a deuce

OOP I check most tens as overall I’m an underdog in the situation and will often get frozen or face raises. I bet tens with rougher draws underneath to muddle my range abit and because in theory getting frozen isn’t a big deal with T8763 but i think it’s a big mistake to get frozen with hands like T8432. Then I c/r very good hands where I have not paired along the way as it’s more likely my opponent will have made a hand.

But you are right, some players bet most of not all tens. But there are certainly things we can do in position to address that.

hmm.

Your model has Hero betting all hands even UI on turn, and Villain check/breaking all Tens and Jacks. That is very off.

If you do not bet UI at very top of the 1cd draw range against a wide 1cd I feel like you are making a mistake. If you do not agree please explain

And the issue of villain betting tens was addressed in the post above yours. If he is betting all tens this is a mistake, my response grid would be different and EV of my turn wagers would be higher

Can we possibly follow up on a few items here?

Phunk, you do not bet 2367 here? if so, why not? Just so we are clear my model is looking at one specific hand. The fact that I would bet the 2367 UI is one of main reasons why I proposed we have a higher EV overall by breaking.

Players are betting T8753 and J8753 OOP? The ten is certainly possible but if you are betting many tens the player IP can start to adjust very efficiently. In the model it's not consistent to have the OOP play perfectly and not allow the IP to adjust.

Sometimes discussion just stops, since everyone is really quick to chime in when they think things are wrong or way off I usually have to take silence as point conceded but if that is not the case then let's discuss...

I misunderstood your model. Of course you should cbet 100% if villain never has better than a T. Anyway you said that patting the 9 would be a colossal mistake. Your model showed it to be a tiny one. Your model also makes flawed assumptions. Eg, oop always leads out made 7/8/9

Its hard to rely on your conclusion. Is that EV gain from IP breaking the 9, or by assuming oop playing badly.

I think you still misunderstand the model, OOP does indeed lead out with 8 or 9. (Can’t make a 7) Model assumes OOP is playing well.

For example V9 means villain is keeping and leading and then we respond by raising, calling and patting, or calling and drawing depending on what we have. Then the % listed is hero’s equity.

Only said it was a colossal mistake when from the title it made it seem like the 97632 was pat from the beginning. Then when I found out it was after 1st draw I still thought it was a mistake to pat, I thought it was a little bit bigger but I did concede it wasn’t as big as I thought. So we should be on the same page regarding all of that. However the model does assume that when we pat we also make perfect breaking decisions and that clearly is not always the case.