I generally agree. Arieh is going to pat some 9s and fold sometimes unimproved after the 1st draw, and so on. Therefore, my estimate of 0.71% is way too high in terms of realistic ranges. But it is still way higher than the 0.19% you got assuming he only continues with 23456 after the first draw.

This hand actually just came up, none of us were familiar with the game in question, but a bunch of people were claiming that Arieh played like a donkey simply based on his "wow I did it" reaction and apology.

Those other half claim he was playing more or less standard and the apology was more about getting incredibly lucky to get the stone cold nuts in the event Yockey did indeed have a legit hand and wasn't just hoping Arieh would pair up on draw a K. They think were that it's reasonable for Arieh to believe he could have been patting something like 9 high once you account for stack sizes and fact it's 4 handed.

Sorry to hijack the thread but thought it better to post here than create a new one.

Can someone who knows this game well weigh in on this if his play was standard or not?

He played fine. The only thing that was odd was how long he took to call the turn with 2345, although if Bryce’s pat range doesn’t include 9s (it probably does) the turn would be a correct fold.