This is gonna be a rant. Am looking very seriously for advise though. This is for 2-7 OFC

Short back story, I've been playing/studying hard since the beginning of August. Will detail some of my efforts below.
Went on a bad losing streak and started tracking hard and the last 2.2k hands I'm losing around 0.7pts per hand. Seems like I just never win, and now playing in games where I'm seeing people routinely make 2pt errors, also I'm very sure I'm not making the same errors very more than once very maybe 400 hands. Still cannot seem to win ever.

My real issue is that I've done **** loads of work and it still seems like I'm completely hopeless.

I learned Python to write a simulator
sim can only handle numbers 2-14 (no suits and struggles slightly w straight draws) at least 200 hours into this tooling w strategy

Studied tons of hours w the sim to perfect my own strategy.

Play a ton

Watched hours of the biggest game on the site and took notes on the successful players.

Watched and took notes on every RIO video on OFC


I don't know what the hell I'm doing wrong, but it seems like I can't win at all. can anyone on here give me any advise as to why I'm losing, or losing so much? today I even ran sims to see if this could just be bad variance (I know smallish sample, but still relevant) after 2k hands I'm confident that at the very least I'd have to be running about as bad as I can with other people running as good as they can to lose like I'm losing. my opponents have had highish FL% and very high top trips in FL I'm confident that's part of it but doesn't seem like enough to compensate for 0.7 pts per hand


Lastly I wrote out five options today that might explain the losing, bc especially with how hard I've worked it drives me crazy.
A) My sim somehow still sucks
(mind you I've move strategies around a ton, I think it's unlikely anything profound could happen here)
B) I've miscalculated scoring somehow in relation to HU vs 3 way pots
(I think possible would love to discuss)
C) I really am just running very bad
D) I'm getting cheated
(I know this is semi prevalent in OFC so slightly concerned here)
E) Maybe maybe maybe an unknown unknown, having trouble racking my brain for what it might be.

Please help. around 1/3 of my BR went into this and tons of work, sorry for the super long post.

cheating is definitely possible

are you playing hu or 3-way? stop playing 3-max immediately imo

maybe you're making mistakes setting up FL? 2-7 strategy isn't that complicated

the majority of what I'm playing is 3 handed. why do you say quit that??

I agree, not that overly complicated. I've seen a lot of the nuance with stuff like when to break 7s, strategy with As and Ks at different points in the draw and when to gamble, also when to plays pairs up front and stuff.... Don't want to give up too mcuh strategy in the open, but Im hoping this kind of illustrates get gist of it. This is why it's been so alarming to lose at such a high rate.

I appreciate your suggestion. My FL% is pretty high, can send it from my tracker when I get home. Relatively confident that I'm gambling in the right places nearly always for those. Maybe some errors with 2 and 3 flushes relative to them.

oh, setting it. yeah, I'll take a second look. I try to really make sure with FL, but I haven't reviewed it so I will

Re: 3way, he's probably suggesting your opponents could be colluding against you, whether be coordinating their plays, sharing profits, or sharing cards. Also maybe work on game selection then? I've never studied but I'm 5-0 vs my dad

the big ah-ha moment I had when thinking about this was, if we're playing vs two person team one in FL, they can tell partner all FL cards, exposing a quarter of the deck. I know with some of the resources available to me after 3 months this would be a game breaking advantage, and as much as I like to take credit for my own results there were lots of instances where people with bizarre and seemingly subpar sets were being rewarded incredibly. I like to trust people and give them the benefit of the doubt; however it seems like this was almost certainly an instance where I needed to be more cautious. Recently I've been much more careful.

Have been playing HU the past 4 days and haven't had a losing session despite two sessions where I was out carded by pretty incredible margins throughout match. I think I will post some tricky spots and FL sets in the coming weeks to see how I'm doing in tough spots.

yeah I would never play 3-handed with someone I don't know personally, too easy to cheat and the edge is enormous

just by knowing his partner's discards and seeing what you're setting they can play almost perfectly with regards to key cards

some of the stuff is pretty easy to catch too, like the same person would sometimes play KQss/27/A in one spot and then break AQo/27/K a few deals later