1500 8-game 2-7 round.
Blinds 10k/20k (250k avg chips)

Hero: 200k
Villain: Covers

Hero gets 2468 UTG and raises 5 handed.
Villain calls in BB.

Villain draws 2 and checks blind.
Hero draws 1 and bets blind.

Villain check/raises.
Hero catches a 7 and calls.

Villain pats.
Hero ???

Looking for advice and opinions on plan of next streets depending on villains actions.

Thanks.

Did you consider 3b after you saw the 7?

I did for a bit yes.

I felt that if I 3-bet, most obvious line would either be he breaks and I pat (easiest).

Or he'd check pat, I check back.

And if he bet river, I'd lean towards fold. I don't think I'm really value betting this thin with blinds so big.

My reasoning for the call at the time was to try and trap a bad eight or a smooth nine and get to a cheap showdown.

Edit;

I was also scared of a 4-bet fwiw. He's quite aggressive (creative as well) and it would feel so dirty breaking an 8 to what could be a 9 or worse 8.

Cash game I 3-bet 60 % of the time in this spot.

My read is that villain is more likely to snow or Cr pat a hand weaker than ours more often than most players, in this spot. Partly cuz of the stakes (and whether or not he has any bracelet/FT bets), partly bc your slightly below avg chip stack may have him thinking that he can push you around bc you’re trying to ladder up.

I think villain would be more likely to take a snowy line and put more ICM pressure on you if you opened HJ and D1 w 10 bets than if you had 5 bets (and were committed to seeing showdown, negating a lot of his FE).

Either way, I like 3! the flop. If he calls flop and pats, I’d continue betting the turn in a cash game, but since he’s capable of Cr the turn, I’d prob pat and xb the turn and then call a river bet itm of a tourney, w your stack size.

The next closest line I like would be to flat the Cr on the flop and then D1, hoping to make a 7 on 2nd or 3rd draw. But I agree w your sentiment that against an aggressive player w more chips, we might just want to hold on to our 876 against a BB defend and draw 2 Cr line. The flop 3 bet should yield us the most info for the cheapest price imo

Ok it’s the HJ since it’s five handed

Anything is possible I guess but I put the likelihood of a snow at very low. This was a strong D1 range for hero and there’s no money bubble or anything like that as everyone is in money and payouts from what I see are the same for many spots left to go and bump ups are not huge for awhile anyway.

I just call and D1

Agree w this and think a 3 bet is quite bad.

ok, so reading this i instinctively was thinking pat and call down. seems like nobody advocated it here so is this the worst play out of 3-betting and drawing? am i taking the fishiest/stationiest line? lol

chewing on some of the factors here, would like to know how on track i am

- if we think we have the best hand we should be 3-betting
- if we think we are beat we should be drawing
- as such pat/call is like a no mans land?

- pat/call would be good if we knew villain has snows or is willing to c/r and pat his 9s here
- but given there isn't any extra incentive to bubble and OP's range is pretty strong (EP D1) then villain is unlikely to have snows or hands we're beating (9s, 87xxx) etc.

that about right?

The action happened blind, and my first thought was to pat and call down as well, but anytime DD says something I need to think about it more. We are st the direct bottom of our non draw range when we pat.

There’s no snows and very few nines in his range imo. For him to have a 9 I would think it would have to be a 987 type hand. I don’t think he would he would c/r pat something like 98532 and certainly not anything like 97452. We beat all but one of 876 hands but given we also hold 876 due to removal we aren’t beating much. Thus I think it’s a simple break of #15 and go for #2 and #4.

In general though I’m not that concerned about breaking to a range that may possibly have nines. Many nines will be broken unless it’s like 987 or 986 and we have good equity and implied odds versus thus hands. Make your hand on turn you can get in a raise that they will almost always call to see if you are making a play or make on the river will tend to get the call there

And from perspective of an OOP nine it needs to fade a strong D1 over the course of three draws

Snowing is rather unlikely but he can have 95, 96, and 87652 (and some small portion of combos of 87653 and 87643 when he started with certain portions of those hands). We have number 16 I think. We lose to 15 hands and beat something like 7.
I think that, on balance, I like freezing him here and call/breaking next draw if he bets again. If he checks I would check it back, pat again, and value bet river if he checks a final time. We sacrifice a good portion of our when-beat equity, but break incorrectly a lot less often than breaking right now.

If you think he's snowing a lot (he probably isn't) for some reason, you should just break now and call light on the river.

call pat bump turn.

That was the plan. But he checked.

Your move now?

woah... I thought I had a good understanding of this, I figured he was ahead and the pat was psychological to bully him into folding or drawing to a lesser hand

definitely a reminder to not play higher staked mix games going forward

definitely betting. checking accomplishes nothing,.