I haven't played fixed-limit triple draw in ages, much less a tourney. I get lost pretty easily.

Dealing 15000 30000 Deuce-to-Seven Triple Draw

Chango blinds 8000
JRX blinds 15000
1 Chango 54900 8000 [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]
2 JRX 156900 15000 [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]
3 > Portlandia 77200 0 [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]
4 Troutboy 68700 0 [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]
5 Phat Mack 34100 0 [7] [3] [6] [3] [2]
6 B Nancy 22800 0 [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]

When it's your turn, you will discard: 3s
Portlandia calls

Troutboy calls
Phat Mack raises 15000 to 30000
Nancy folds

Chango folds
JRX folds
Portlandia calls
Troutboy calls

Portlandia draws 2
Troutboy draws 1
Phat Mack draws 1
My cards are: [7] [9] [6] [3] [2]
Portlandia checks
Troutboy checks
Phat Mack bets 4100 and is all-in
Portlandia calls
Troutboy calls

3 > Portlandia 43100 34100 [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]
4 Troutboy 34600 34100 [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]
5 Phat Mack 0 34100 [7] [9] [6] [3] [2]

Portlandia draws 1
Troutboy draws 1
Phat Mack stands pat
My cards are: [7] [9] [6] [3] [2]

Portlandia bets 30000
Troutboy folds

3 > Portlandia 13100 64100 [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]
5 Phat Mack 0 34100 [7] [9] [6] [3] [2]

Portlandia stands pat

I???

My thinking here is that my patting after two players draw one shows *some* strength, rather than just wishful thinking, and that villain leading out is standard, but then she pats. Does she have me beat, or just a hand that she wants to show down?

ya your hand's really strong and it's still 3-way, even if you're all in

i'd draw

So if you pat correctly you're 100% to win, 0% to win if incorrectly. Against even the worst 8, you're only 25% to draw and it gets worse from there. One reason we might break in a spot like this is the implied odds of hitting a 7, but that of course does not apply when all-in. I think it's pretty close and I wouldn't break a 96 but hard to see villain patting a 98 here unless it's a very complex play to try to get us to break -- so I'd break myself but seems close.

Hard to see villain bluffing in this spot, yea i would break.

Tricky spot to pat or not after first. I think break is probably better without the chips to keep firing and deny equity from additional draws/showdown.

I would draw both times, but especially the second time.

Grunch: just an intuition take it as you find it - I don't think she puts in 30K to bluff out the other guy. Theoretically, these hands with a player all-in are bad bluff spots as the hands always get shown. After she pats I break.

Some great comments. I played it wrong, rapped, and lost.

This from poker's preeminent historian:
Very perceptive imo. Bad players will lead out here with bad hands; good players won't do this; great players will. This takes us back to Yardley's analysis of levels of simpletons. I either guessed wrong--or am simply the wrong level of simpleton. I should have known better.