I'm pretty new to draw games so I am hoping this is a good exercise in basics.

6h game. My read on BB is he plays solid.

Folded to me. I open
98763 OTB

SB folds

BB calls.

HU now, so If BB:
D2s : what do i toss?
D3s : what do i toss?

any situations where i ever pat?

Thanks!

I pat them both and bet/fold against most players, basically never break it.

thanks for response.

honestly i'm so new that i'd never really considered taking this line with intention to bet/fold.

definitely gives me something to think about.

You should almost always draw 1 here to 8763x, whether the BB draws 2 or 3.

It seems like we should pat because drawing only helps if we make an 8 and opponent makes a 9 and that’s a parlay

This is basically the worst hand we can have here thus we can easily fold and in theory can’t be exploited by folding absolute bottom of range

ah interesting i didn't think of it like that.

as i was dealt the hand i kind of got the feeling that it was something that plays fine given the situation but can never withstand any type of heat and doesn't go too far given the 876 part of it.

am i on the right track here?

I haven't seen really good online players pat the 98763 in this spot (but have seen them pat 98654) and I figure it's due to the straight draw considerations. But I haven't done the math in this spot so I could be off.

You mean you have seen them break this specific hand or its just never come up? Can't recall it from a DD video and I've basically agreed with all of the analysis from those.

But if it was observed I'd ask them what are we really gaining by drawing? Draw is basically to worst 8 so really it only works out for us if we end up making an 8 and our opponent catches one of the three remaining nines?

There are certainly benefits for our overall strategy in not having a range that includes 9876+. Especially when you make a habit of bet folding in these spots.

Other benefits Incldue being able to bet river sometimes when we draw as opposed to checking 100% when pat

I mean that my (error-prone) memory doesn't recall seeing them showdown this hand after patting predraw in this spot.

Asked 3 pros (two well known, the other is not but very tough) I consider top notch and surprisingly, the super lag deuce specialist said he'd always draw, the other well known pro said he'd always pat, and the other said he'd draw if BB took 2 but would prob pat if BB took 3.

So all that research and I still don't know if I'm "right" lol

Once the post draw implications are presented, I agree that habitually b/f the 9876 could be problematic, while having position and making a T/9/8 in a river 1-1 spot does allow us to value bet if we draw.

I can also see how the increase in FE when BB draws 3, could lead to patting pre as the best line.

FWIW my first inclination was to draw but then asked myself what that would accomplish and don’t think it was very much

I don’t think b/f this hand is problematic as there are only a handful of hands this weak that I would play this way. My pat range is typically pretty strong as I break liberally for implied odds so if someone wants to go after me when I pat initially it will be a losing play for them overall

It could work as hand that you should D1 against aggressive BB who may often try to bluff snow and get you to fold a pat hand from the start. In general I would probably just pat and fold often to check/raises in future draws. If BB D3 it seems like patting is for sure right against all types of opponents.

if we draw 1 tho, we can still v bet river improved and get called by wider ranges since it looks like a snow. i think we should break the 9 being that we're such a favorite to improve or at least make a 9. i mean, that's 15 outs 3x.

There’s always tradeoffs of breaking vs patting. Yeah you could do what you said. But if you are pat and he is drawing you get a big bet in on turn as a big favorite as opposed to it going check/check where if he caught up to a D1 you are now an underdog.

Also there is more fold equity as a pat as on turn when he is drawing 2 as he’s probably not going to call with a four card nine

Hot cold has drawing doing around 2% better than patting but I like patting when I line up the tradeoffs. But it’s too close to get in a big debate I think.

i'm really new to triple draw, but aren't you supposed to break in these close equity decisions because of river rio vs +implied odds? like if we pat bet bet, and he donks river vs him betting river in a 1-1 spot?

Yes and that’s a question

Typically I do break but I do not consider this hand to have RIO

Reason being is that I simply intend to fold if raised. Or if he bets out like in this example. It’s at the bottom of my range and since I do break often in general my pats are strong. So I’m in no danger of being exploited

So this particular hand is different. No RIO if played this way and an 8763 draw is not a great draw so not missing implied odds

Good question I meant to type...

ok. what's the worst hand you vbet river with when staying pat? i'm thinking a good 87?

Seems very dependent on past history and image and villain and so forth but in general that sounds about right

I'm patting regardless of bb draw and folding if I get any resistance. Don't think there are much implied odds in trying to improve here since we have to be so cautious anyways with an 876.

1

There are player specific reasons to do a lot of things in this game, but just looking at most common scenarios:

Against most D2 hands you are a flip regardless whether you draw to 87 or pat. When you share cards with the D2 you are a slight favorite drawing (51% vs 50% pat) based on sims vs 2w7/www and ww8 ranges, but I'm unsure why the dead cards would help a D1 more.

Vs D3 it isn't even close, you should draw. Your equity pat is 57% vs D2 range, but you are vulnerable to either being played off the hand or owning yourself. If you draw you gain 4% equity and can play later streets in position with more flexibility.

Some expert players take the first draw with a plan to pat almost all flops and barrel. You can do this of course but your draw vs a D2 start is such a substantial favorite it may be better to farm that equity and save the pure barrels for hands with worse potential. Your history and playing style should dictate how often you do this.

In my experience, in a live setting you can also value bet much thinner vs a hand that starts D3 as these hands get targeted by snow a lot, and players who routinely defend and D3 oop know this. So you can bet or bet/call a lot of 1:0 rivers with some dead card information from the draw, but if you pat from jump you have to play the river with less information and an empirically weak hand.

thanks, that is a lot of great stuff to consider

appreciate the discussion and insight, everyone

hmm. Interesting. I definitely would have kept the 9, but willing to reconsider.

People who break here: do you ever have a 9 in this spot? Maybe 96www? The reason you can pat-snow more vs a D3 is because you should have more value hands in your range. But if you're turning your value 9s into D1s, you wouldn't be adding value and potentially only adding bluffs -- then obviously villain is correct to play back at you and call light. I would say it is good to have 9s in your range vs D3, and this is an ideal candidate.