Blank
965
K7

? Hope it's not too bad lol

A couple of questions:
- who do you think is "probably the best OFC player in the world"?
- "In the final, analysis, you rather have a 2-card flush draw with a big kicker than 3-card straight draw and probably a 4-card gutshot straight draw." - why did you not include the latter in your simulations?

FWIW, in the hand in question:
- the probability of making a spade flush is 34.5%
- the probability of making straight from 567 is 52.3% (this is the probability of hitting two cards among the 8 to come that will make a straight. If you hit 3 or 9 first, you are faced with a decision)
- the probability of making straight from 5679 is 47.9%

I think it's sloppy journalism to mention someone and his idea but not his identity and make a reference to his results as well.

only your personal thoughts about his skills are appropriate , nothing else, imo.

Sent from my Mobile Phone - bansky11

One more probability that may be of interest in the hand above:

the probability of making a straight with 569 (and two dead 7's & one dead 8) is 15.4%

You win.

There's only a handful of well-known nosebleed OFC players. I'm going with the guy that many people think is the best. I won't mention his name though. He can come in here and post if he wants.

That requires running more simulations and I was too lazy to do more. It takes a while to write these reports. That's why I used the word probably.

While I think these percentages are interesting, I don't think they're helpful in figuring out how to make better OFC decisions. It's the main reason why we don't display any of these percentages in our simulator. But if anyone can show me otherwise, we can add them to our simulator.

I'm not sure if this is directed at me since the two sentences seem contradictory.

Anyway, I made it a policy to not mention any names of people I talk to in my articles because a while back, I quoted a friend from our conversation and he freaked out and asked me why I didn't ask him for permission, which caught me by surprise since the quote was positive, not negative. Ever since then, I only use the word friend in articles and give the friend credit.

If my friend wants to be mentioned, he can contact me and I will gladly update it. Most of the time, I'm speaking to well-known players anyway so it will surely drive more traffic to the article. But I don't want my friends to think that every time I talk to them, I'm looking for something to write. Sometimes, in a conversation, I find something interesting and make a mental note to write about it and give them credit for bringing it up.

I contacted Shaun Deeb and he said it was OK.

Firstly, thank you for answering my questions.

Secondly, while I think knowing the probabilities in most cases isn't in any way crucial, I disagree with the statement they wouldn't be helpful. (what you display or don't display in your application is of course your business and not mine; in theory, the less you display in your application the more demand my application has, so I'm perfectly happy with that)

duh.

Surprised he didn't slow roll you with the answer.

I assume this is a no-brainer, but want to make sure I'm not making fatal errors and don't even realize it.



Also, Happy New Years all.

u seem to be making a pretty huge error in judgement by continuing to play regular OFC on that pos app instead of pineapple

happy new year.

oh I'd play

xxx
A4
AKT

I am fed up with the App, but so many ppl I play are on it. What else are ppl using that is fairly secure?

I think I'm too nitty for pineapple. I'll sit at a tough MS NLHE game cause I am too ascared of the PLO variance, despite how good the game is. I like predictable returns. I guess I need to grow a pair...

Right now Criss Cross is enough action for me .

First to act, criss cross with FL.

9d6dJs5h3c

?

It's a free world. Everyone can do whatever they like. I'm sure there are many things I can do better.

I'm curious though. Can you give me an example where knowing the probability of something hitting is helpful in making better decisions in OFC?

I just want to be clear I'm not trolling you. I really fail to see the benefits and it bugs me if everyone gets it and I don't.

Haha, that's not how it went but whatever, happy new year!

First to act, standard FL rules, AhKh6h6cQs.

LOL

I admit I don't know this game.

When you originally posed the question, I was hoping for an answer other than "LOL." I'm so ignorant about this game that I don't know whether or not asking for an example is ridiculous.

I'll choose an example taken from this thread (but I could easily choose a different example... almost any five cards Hero might be dealt).

When your first five cards are as shown below:
965K7, it seems to me it might be helpful to know the probability of getting dealt three (or more) spades in the next eight cards. It also seems it might be helpful to know the probability of being dealt an eight in the next five cards.

A question in my mind would be where to place the 7. Do I want it with the K to try to possibly make a flush, or do I want it with the 65 to increase my chance of making a straight?

That may be a stupid question and if so, I apologize. (I admit I don't know this game well).

Buzz

Q
AK
66 I think?

Here's a simple example:

AsQh-
7h7d9s9h-
AcKcJcKh-

You're dealt the Ad. Where do you play it? I didn't set out to make this close so it might be obvious, but you need to know how likely you are to improve further.

Thanks, Tapirboy. That's how it seems to me too.

I'm wondering why SlowHabit doesn't think probabilities (expressed as percentages) are helpful in figuring out how to make better OFC decisions. Seems to me they would be.

Buzz

For some reason I didn't even consider that one. I ended up doing

KQ
A
66

Thoughts on which one of these is better?

It's not stupid at all; frankly I'm surprised anyone here thinks knowing your probabilities can't help you make better decisions.

In standard OFC two-flush setting is not optimal; you're about 27% OOP and 34% IP to get there (assuming HU and live cards). The gutshot is 54%/59%. It's kind of a problematic hand but if you can live with just above a coin flip you can set the gutshot and be done with the splitting decisions.

Two-flush in back is probably most useful when it's suited connectors that could potentially straighten out, if they're overs to the middle, or both, i.e.:

Q
23
89

Other options for the hand you chose are setting something like

9
65
K7

where you leave a two-pair two-pair scenario live (as well as the flush draw) and perhaps bink some FL - both back and middle are ~70% to at least pair up,

or

K
65
97

with odds again in the 70%'s of pairing both middle and back assuming live cards, king-high often being a winner in front.

You can take whichever line suits your risk/reward preference. My preference may not be the same as another players', so I won't necessarily make a recommendation. But here is a concrete example of "where knowing the probability of something hitting is helpful in making better decisions in OFC".