I think you did it correctly. Nice work!

You make your flush when 3 or more cards you're dealt are in your flush suit.
You miss your flush when 2 or less cards you're dealt are in your flush suit.

The number of ways to be dealt 8 cards, when you can see the five cards dealt to you, but not the cards dealt to anyone else, that is when 47 cards are unknown, is
C(47,8)=314,457,495.

The number of ways none of the 8 cards to be dealt to you will be in your flush suit is 30,260,340.

The number of ways one of the 8 cards to be dealt to you will be in your flush suit is 91,824,480.

The number of ways two of the 8 cards to be dealt to you will be in your flush suit is 107,1285,60.

If we don't need a check, the above will suffice.
(30,260,340+91,824,480+107,128,560)/314,457,495=0.7289.

That's the probability you won't be henceforth dealt at least three more cards in your flush suit.

Subtract that from one to get the probability you'll make your flush.
1-0.7289=0.2711 or 27.11%.

And that's what you got.

Buzz

I have been trying to figure out the strength of going for the 66 or better bonus. I have only played for a few hours but I did not see this bonus get hit as often as I thought it would.

Trying to figure it out, I did some very basic solitaire tests with this hand. I ran it 50 times laid out how scrolls did. I played it very aggressive the 1st 3 cards. If I got a K or an A I paired and went for it since that is the idea with playing the cards like this. I scored it as though my HU villain would foul every time. So I gave 0 points if I fouled, 6 points if I had a usable hand and added bonuses.

I only averaged 4.5 points per hand. I fouled 23 times. In 50 hands I only got the 8 point KK bonus 1 time. It felt like a long shot to catch a K,A and 2 or 3 in 8 cards. I think I would play this hand starting different (more conservative).

Next I ran 50 tests with this hand.
T
A
223

I scored everything the same. If 1st card was 2-5 I played it on bottom going for 2 pair +. 6-T I played on top going for bonus. J-A I played in middle trying to cover TT on top. I always went the 66 or beter bonus on 1st 3 cards.

I averaged 5.8 points per hand. It is a big advantage to have the gap between T and A. If you get a J,Q,K on your 1st couple of cards you now have a lot of outs in your middle hand to cover your TT.


From the very small (lol sample size) test I did above. I would set this.
9
A
TTQ

Powder your test ignores fantasy land implications and also when you make it you can often scoop even strong hands so just assuming villain fouls isn't realistic

Part of the the solitaire test (lol) was trying to figure out if it is worth it to go for fantasy land. I'm not sure it is worth it if you start with.
K
A
223

It was crippling to be so limited needing exactly an A,K and 2 or 3.

If you start with,
Q
A
223
I think you have a much stronger starting hand. If you pair your A. You can draw a K and put it on top. Now you can hit an Q or K to help get to fantasy land. If you draw a K before pairing your A you can put it in the middle and feel a more confident of being able to beat QQ in the middle.

Bump

Did everyone start posting in another OFC thread or something?

How would you set a hand like 2358T?

Useless question unless you also tell us the suits.

mix of suits. D,C,S, 2h's. No flush draws. I'm just trying to figure how to play crap low hands when 1st to act.

And what about opp?
What exactly two hearts?

Okay, you are asking for help - be specific - WHICH TWO are the hearts????? It makes a difference.

How about the 2 and the 5.

If first to act, then:

top empty

235
T8


If your opponent sets first, then look at the dead cards, and make possible adjustments. For instance, if he already has an 8, but not a 5, then put the 5 on the bottom and the 8 in middle. If the opponent has TWO of the tens, then put your ten in the middle or even up top. If the opponent has some of the low cards like the 2,3 - then you can put ONE of those up top.

I've been playing HU on the app and I'm down 6-2 in fantasy lands. Loathing settling up. Any thoughts on how aggressive to play against fantasy land HU?

Also, are the generally accepted hands to stay in fantasy land Str8 flush back, flush mid, trips top?

I understand your setting. It's also how I have been mostly playing it. Here is my question. I feel like I'm playing purely not to foul. My hands end up so weak that I get scooped often anyway. I also find that I am often catching an over card next. How about setting like this? I have been avoiding playing to many cards in the top while setting. I'm wondering if it really is not such a bad play here though.

23
58
T

Plan for next card 2-3 goes top, 4-9 middle T+ bottom.

I've only been playing at home games so our rules might be off. We've been playing quads+ in back, or Full house+ in middle, or trips in back to stay.

Not fouling must be balanced with making hands that prevent scooping.

You want to build to allow for royalties, while blocking scooping, and preventing fouling.

The priority between avoiding a foul, Blocking a scoop, or going for royalties is based on your analysis of your opponents hand, dead cards for yours, and when 3 or 4 way, the likelyhood of other fouls, etc etc.

It is *way* too complicated for simple "if/then".

I don't like this at all.

NEVER pair the TOP with a non-royalty pair if the MIDDLE does not already have a pair to support it.

I avoid pairing even royalty cards on top without support in the middle, unless I'm expecting to get scooped anyway AND there is a substantial chance of making a supporting hand in the middle (such as a straight).


For top, in the INITIAL set, I'll want to place a single card that could make a royalty pair, so long as that placement does not incur a high risk of fouling. For instance, I won't place a high card like K or A on top in an initial set, but I'll certainly put a J or Q up there if there is at least a K or A to put in the middle to support it.

The ONLY time I put a non-royalty card on TOP in the INITIAL set, if if that card would block development of a strong middl e(or bottom) hand, such as:


4

JT

A 5


In this initial set, I hoping to possibly improve to flush over flush or straight over flush - the next two draws will tell how this may go - but to allow for the possibility, I place the weak 4 on top, so I don't block the others.

Of course, if the next couple streets present pairs for middle/bottom I'll change direction and go that way instead.

A tough choice would be if the 4 came on 6th street, and would be very dependent on the opponent(s) hands, my dead cards, etc.

This is correct. Standard Chinese royalties should keep you in FL.

1st up, playing 2/4/6/8/10/25 royalties in back, 14 pt bonus for fantasy land

QJTQJ

i could see going a few different ways with this one. thoughts?

I always set two pair in back. If you are playing with fantasy land and you had KKQQT, then I could see setting KK middle and QQ top, and hoping to get something good into the back. But here, you are too far away IMO without seeing the other hands. By putting QQJJ in back, you have a good opportunity to make a boat with a good royalty. Next you are hoping to get some pairs going in middle to allow you to put a big royalty pair on top.

TOP: EMPTY

MIDDLE:T

BACK: QJQJ


Now put some low cards as they come in the middle, and look at the dead cards to see if you have a good chance to pair or two pair the middle. If so, put any A or K on top.

UNLESS

If you make a full house in back, then focus *mainly* on not fouling.

The only thing id never do with that hand is what alien boy likes /shrug

Really? Would you put the QQ on top and JJ in back, T middle and try to make Jacks up in back, Tens up, or KK or AA middle if it came?

Or are you thinking of QJT in back for the potential royal? That seems like a much longer shot.



If we set for fantasy land as:


TOP QQ

MID EMPTY

BACK JJjT


With the strategy of any A or K in the middle, trying to make a larger pair, while trying to hit two pair or trips in back, and favoring any smaller cards that are not dead yet in the middle... is that really more likely to get us into fantasy land than if we set with two pair in back and T middle, and then put any ace or king on top, and try to make two pair in the middle?


With

QQ
X
JJT

We have to hit AA or KK, or make two pair in the middle AND two pair in back or we foul and lose 6 plus royalties.

OR with

X
T
QQJJ

We need to make two pair in the middle only, and can hit the AA or KK on top, and we have a much lower chance of fouling, and a much greater chance of making a boat with the royalties that includes.

I would go T/JJ/QQ or go for the flush

But i play with diff rules, 88+ fantasy

i think the problem with QQJJ in back is that it's an inefficient use of the 2 big pairs. if I was playing 88+ fantasy then the best play is clearly T/JJ/QQ, but i think i like it even playing QQ+ fantasy. I have a good chance at a 5 pt royalty and scooping, and plus still can end up with a fantasy draw a decent amount it seem.

if it's not T/JJ/QQ then i think it has to be -/QhJh/QdJdTd. double royal!

I'd be really torn between qjt/qj and qq/jj/t

would def be interested to see some math on which is optimal.

lol @ playing it qqjj/t