the first one has a near 0% chance of foul, that is 0% of -6. Then of course it has its regular hand strength to consider, which will make a boat ~18% of the time (18% * 6)

x/KK/Q87 probably fouls around 25% of the time, that is 25% of -6. The + side is 63% of +4 (so assume the other 12% of the time we make running 2 pair).

Doing the math really fast"
Option kk7: 0 + .18* 6 = 1.08
Option q87ccc: .25*-6+.63*4 = 1.02


Interesting thing about option 2, this would imply that the risk of the set is immediately negated by the reward (I think its 63% IP though, whats it OOP again?), since it is a +EV value. Combine that with overall super strong hand strength in the middle and a layup for FL and its pretty tough to throw away the 3-flush for the pair over .06 points.

i think there are more ways to build a qualifying back hand with J89 then the J8.
any J89T immediately makes a very strong draw.
i havent run any sims so i could be wrong, however ive played thousands of hands and in my experience you're better off playing J89.

Tri, you added the count instead of averaging it. There is a key difference here. Also you don't need to rerun spades for diamonds or hearts, they all have the exact same equity, it only helps add simulations and narrow the estimate.

Here are my results using only the data from your Spades and Clubs (all thats needed):

Draw Qc / KhKd / 7c8c /1:1KhKd / Qc7c8c
2sdh -0.61 0.04
3sdh -0.51 0.01
4sdh -0.29 0.07
5sdh 0.01 -0.07
6sdh 0.87 0.08
7sd 1.64 -0.11
8sdh 2.01 0.31
9s 2.13 0.55
Tsh 0.44 0.89
Jsdh -0.37 0.75
Qsdh 4.85 2.79
Ks -0.46 0.77
Ash -0.04 0.86
2c 2.89 4.6
3c 3.17 4.99
4c 3.47 4.34
5c 4.47 4.63
6c 3.94 4.67
9c 6.14 5.53
Tc 4.48 5.57
Jc 2.66 4.7
Kc 3.6 4.59
Ac 4.64 5.35


AVERAGE 1.169761905 1.331190476
(42 cards)

So if we believe the simulation to be accurate, the 3-flush is best. I completely intuitively agree with that finding.

I agree with the whole analysis. K comes after a couple blanks, then probably no gamble. Really need to catch it right away and have live cards, not sure where the breakeven point is though.

I too have played thousands of hands. I also don't think you mean "more" ways, because the very reason I argue for J8 is that it has more options/ more "doors" open. I think you mean you're one step closer to a qualifying hand in numerous ways, which may make it correct, not sure, but keeping more doors still being open is precisely why I'd consider J8.

You are also completely ignoring the very high potential of 99-JJ up top, a 4-6 pt royalty on its own. Quite likely to pick up a 9, T or j early, throw it up top and you've got a nice safe 3-outer up there.

I still play Q/KK/87 though. But I'm a degen.

Can someone do the math for this HU hand please out of position

QQ
A
88

vs setting as

x
A
QQ88

Thanks

anyone play pass and play chinese poker?

game sucks but a friend likes it, so i'm giving it a whirl:

i start with

A
KK
Q
88
666
555
3

It's also 2-7 in the middle row.

What do I pass here?

Adding the count or averaging it gives us the same info.

I agree that spades/hearts/diamonds have same equity. I just wanted more trials to have a more accurate result.

Yeah, that would be cool. Everyone talks about the 5 card sets but I could use help/guidance on decisions for 6th to 10th (by 11th and 12th we can often just do foul calculator type math).

HU UTG
3h358Kh

-/K8/335
Meh ?

HU, 1st to act:

8 9 J 10 K

Adding the count gives us a rather abstract number; averaging the count gives us our EV. In a game all about EV, the latter is all that matters (rhyming).

It would be nice if instead of having to average and excel spreadsheet 42 results, we could just run the value of the set for an extremely large sample.

Open ended bottom
K mid

With absolutely no experience or math to back this up:

My general rule is if you have 3 to a (live) Straight Flush you always play it.

Interesting. I think 3 to the sf might be better than 4 card open ended in back.

How would you set Aces up hands such as AA77J?

Would you set it -- / J / AA77 or J / AA / 77 or -- / AA / 77J or something else.

Would your play change if the kicker is a Queen instead of a Jack?

I used Warren's simulator to write a full analysis on this cool spot. Click here to read the report.

Is it ever worth it to spite-set?

better off playing the 8 on bottom and 5 in middle.
keeps open running smaller 2pr in middle with 5's up or just KKxxx with 8's up+ in back.

i'd def play the 3 card str8 flush over 4 card oesd.

I think it'd be pretty bad to go for FL here, risking your 10 pt quads royalty. If you set Q up top you'll foul around 90% of the time. If you set it in middle you'll only foul about 6%. Not doing the math right now, but I think those numbers are close. In general, if I have a big royalty already made, I'm not risking for FL with one or two draws left and a couple outs.

If you play it safe, you are most likely winning 2 pts. If you foul, you are most likely losing 13, maybe more if he boats/quads up.

Assuming normal roaylties (6 for boat and 10 for quads in bottom hand) and that FL is worth 12 points:

the EV of placing Q on top is -17, while the EV of placing Q in the middle is -6.2

But revenge equity is huge

I assume -/K/QQQQ is better than QQ/QQ/K?

Contemplated also K/-/QQQQ.

Does the fact that his is in FL affect how u set this hand?

I would go -/K/QQQQ. Could be wrong.

But in FL, there's not even a question. Quads on bottom to stay in FL. Every single time.

I think he means if opponent were in FL.

QQ up top is worth about .6 * (7+12) - .4 * -6 = 9
while QQQQ bottom is worth 10*1 = 10
plus all the cool things you can do in the middle top when you have QQQQ on bottom.

Sound about right?

Nice problem to have