Good way to basically never make a big hand or royalty.

I think most other ways are probably fouling and if not, there strength its going to be inferior.

What do u suggest and why?

here's a spot I'm wondering about...
suits don't matter (no flushes possible for anyone).. scoring is OFC app normal scoring with 14 points added to QQ+ for fantasyland.

Hero has:
2 K _ (top)
A T J 3 _ (middle)
7 6 5 _ _ (bottom)
with an Ace to play

Villain has:
4 2 _ (top)
5 5 6 2 _ (middle)
K J 8 _ _ (bottom)

With three to a flush in back, we break aces to make a flush and the good royalty.

A "first" priority is to not foul, and to block a scoop by winning at least one row.

The second key priority is to target royalties.

The third priority is to scoop.


As an initial set, three to a flush is > a pair in back.


Still a work in progress, but right now my initial set order of preference for the BACK hand is:

Four to an outside straight flush (the only time to break a made flush in a initial set)

Made boat, flush, or straight

Trips plus one card under 8
Two pair
4 to a flush
4 to an outside straight

Trips
Three to a flush
One high pair plus the lowest card
One low pair plus the highest card

Three to a broadway with no gaps
Three to a broadway with gaps.

Two to a flush provided it includes one broadway card.

Three to a straight higher than 9 with no gaps provided there are no broadway cards.

Highest card (above T) and 4th highest card (second highest in middle, 3rd highest on top)

It's very hard to hit a full house starting with a single pair, so it is better to go for a flush. The bare pair will rarely develop into a royalty, while a three flush often will.

Agree fully here.

Thanks....

I can't see setting a gutshot in back out of position or HU, but in position and 3 or 4 handed, I think it's okay if the fill card has not shown in the other hands yet.

Broadway gutshot is probably okay too, as long as we accept that we'll have to take a pair should it become available after 7th street

Don't set three to a small straight in back, its near worthless. As played At this point you need to focus on not fouling. Put the ace in back, then hope for a Q, K, or A765 to set the back to not foul, and put non pairing cards in middle and top. This should block a scoop (hopefully) which is the best you can do at the moment.

Article in the magazine here was very good. Gave the introduction and enough info to spread the word but didn't say anything you wouldn't want said. VNH

fwiw, I didn't say I was the hero or the villain.
A follow up question...
if, in my example:

Hero has:
2 K _ (top)
A T J 3 _ (middle)
7 6 5 _ _ (bottom)
with an Ace to play

Villain has:
4 2 _ (top)
5 5 6 2 _ (middle)
K J 8 _ _ (bottom)

Hero plays the Ace up top, which I think is the worst spot to put it... then proceeded to hit T89 (T played in middle, 89 below to make a straight)... how likely would you think that this person was hacking the app?

Very. Three perfect cards? Tell them to go f-off

what is the general strat for getting dealt LOW rags 1st to act when playing heads up?

I.E. hero is dealt:

2 4: 7 9 J

you dont have to answer this exact situation...but similar ones

I guess what I'm asking is...are we going to just order it in high card strength value so as to minimize the misset? or are we more better off trying something risky in these situations going for a 2 flush on bottom or 3 straight with gaps on bottom? how about throwing 3 trash up top and relying on making a decent mid & bottom? what would you do with the initial 5 card set KEEP IN MIND IM TALKING PLAYING H/U.... thanks!!

Alien,

With your maxim:
"One high pair plus the lowest card
One low pair plus the highest card"

Must you have the highest card paired for it to be a high pair? For instance, would you set like this:

9h
Ac
Jh Jd 2s

or

-
9h 2s
Ac Jh Jd

Both are better than:

2s
9h
Ac Jh Jd

Assume you are oop. Your hand set would not change vs. a flush board such as

-
4d3d
Jc8c4c,

right?

9
A
JJ2

I'm hoping to improve the back before I get an ace. If I get an ace before I improve the back, I put the ace on top.

I'm windmill slamming an ace in the middle if i pick it up on 6th or 7th (depending on how dead my outs for bottom are).

But I feel like getting a really strong mid hand and opening up the possibility of big royal up top is worth the risk of missetting bottom.

I like playing it 7-j9-2d4d with that particular hand.

I'm working on an OFC article for the April 2+2 Magazine and would appreciate somebody checking my math in these four situations.

I've already done the calculations myself. I'm simply looking to make sure their correct.


1. Four-handed play; the player last-to-act has a three-flush on 8th Street (20 cards left in deck after he sees he didn't catch a fourth flush card); there are five flush cards left in the deck.

What are his chances of making a flush by the river?


2. Four-handed play; the player third-to-act has a four-flush on 7th street (25 cards left); there are four flush cards left in the deck.

What are his chances of making a flush by the river?


3. Three-handed play; the player third-to-act has a three-flush on 9th street (25 cards left); there are six flush cards left in the deck.

What are his chances of making a flush by the river?


4. Heads-up play; the player first-to-act has a four-flush on 10th street (33 cards left); there are seven flush cards left in the deck.

What are his chances of making a flush by the river?


Thank you for any help you provide.

Probability of making a flush by the river is 0.3661 or 36.61%.
Odds are about 7 to 4 against.

• The math:
  He gets 5 more cards from a 20 card stub that has 15 non-flush cards and 5 flush cards.
  
  He makes a flush if he gets
  5 flush cards,
  4 flush cards,
  3 flush cards, or
  2 flush cards.
  
  He misses if he gets
  1 flush card or
  0 flush cards
  
  Thinking in terms of combinations, rather than permutations, there's
  1 way to get 5 flush cards,
  5*4*3*2*15/1/2/3/4/1=75 ways to get 4 flush cards,
  5*4*3*15*14/1/2/3/1/2=1050 ways to get 3 flush cards,
  5*4*15*14*13/1/2/1/2/3=4550 ways to get 2 flush cards.
  
  To check, we'll figure the number of ways to get the other possibilities. There are
  5*15*14*13*12/1/1/2/3/4=6825 ways to get 1 flush card, and
  15*14*13*12*11/1/2/3/4/5=3003 ways to get 0 flush cards.
  
  1+75+1050+4550+6825+3003=15504 total.
  Checking, 20*19*18*17*16/1/2/3/4/5=15504.
  
  1+75+1050+4550=5676
  
  5676/15504=0.3661

This ones less complex. Probability is 69.36%. Odds favor making the flush by about 9 to 4.

• The math:
  P=1-C(21,6)/C(25,6)
  P=1-21*20*19*18*17*16/25/24/23/22/21/20=0.6936
  6936/3064 = 2.264
  That's about 9 to 4 in favor of making the flush.

Probability of making a flush by the river is 0.2340 or 23.40%.
Odds are about 13 to 4 against.

• The math:
  Hero gets dealt 4 more cards from a 25 card stub that has 6 flush cards and 19 non-flush cards.
  
  Hero makes a flush if he gets
  4 flush cards,
  3 flush cards, or
  2 flush cards.
  
  Hero misses if he gets
  1 flush card or
  0 flush cards
  
  Thinking in terms of combinations, rather than permutations, there are
  6*5*4*3/1/2/3/4=15 ways to get 4/4 flush cards,
  6*5*4*19/1/2/3/1=380 ways to get 3/4 flush cards,
  6*5*19*18/1/2/1/2=2565 ways to get 2/4 flush cards.
  6*19*18*17/1/1/2/3=5814 ways to get 1/4 flush card, and
  19*18*17*16/1/2/3/4=3876 ways to get 0/4 flush cards.
  
  15+380+2565+5814+3876=12650 total.
  Checking, 25*24*23*22/1/2/3/4=12650.
  
  The first three combo totals make the flush for Hero.
  15+380+2565=2960
  
  2960/12650=0.2340 or 23.40% is the probability Hero makes a flush.
  0.7660/0.2340=3.274/1 or odds are roughly about 13 to 4 against.

Aren't there 52-20=32 cards left?

If so, Hero gets dealt three more cards from a 32 card stub that contains 7 flush cards and 25 non-flush cards.

Hero makes his flush 53.63% of the time.
Odds are roughly 7 to 6 in favor of Hero making the flush.

• The math:
  P=1-25*24*23/32/31/30=0.5363.

What are his chances of making a flush by the river?[/quote]Probability he makes a flush is 0.3434 or 34.34%. Odds against it are about 2 to 1.

• The math:
  Back to more complex.
  6*5*4*3*2/1/2/3/4/5=6 combos have 5 flush cards.
  6*5*4*3*19/1/2/3/4/1=285 combos have 4 flush cards,
  6*5*4*19*18/1/2/3/1/2=3420 combos have 3 flush cards,
  6*5*19*18*17/1/2/1/2/3=14535 combos have 2 flush cards.
  6*19*18*17*16/1/1/2/3/4=23256 ways combos have 1 flush card, and
  19*18*17*16*15/1/2/3/4/5=11628 ways combos have 0 flush cards.
  
  6+285+3420+14535+23256+11628=53130
  to check C(25,5)=25!/20!/5!=
  25*24*23*22*21/1/2/3/4/5=53130 total combos.
  
  6+285+3420+14535=18246 combos make the flush.
  18246/53130=0.3434

Buzz

Buzz,

We agree on the first two examples.

We disagree on the third and fourth examples by quite a bit. I'm wondering if you're not accounting properly for the examples being three-handed and heads-up.

In the heads-up example, the player is 7//32 (21.9%) to hit his flush on 11th street. The odds go up on each following street. But, how could it add up to 95.45%


I'm sending you an e-mail in a few minutes.

Good.

I didn't even notice that. Sorry. I've never played anything but four handed Chinese poker. Three handed and two handed at least changes the number of non-flush cards left in the stub.

That's pretty easy for me to fix if Hero gets dealt 13 cards.

I'll look at them again, but first let me make sure I'm dealing with the correct number of cards for Hero.

How many cards do you get in three handed? (17, 13, or something else)?

How many cards do you get in four handed? (26, 13, or something else)?

It doesn't. My error. I was thinking four handed.

Got a p.m.

Buzz

Players get 13 cards no matter how many people are playing.

So, in three-handed play, there are 13 cards left unseen after the hand is over. In four-handed play, 26 cards are left unseen.

Probability of making a flush by the river is 0.2340 or 23.40%.
Odds are about 13 to 4 against.

• The math:
  Hero gets dealt 4 more cards from a 25 card stub that has 6 flush cards and 19 non-flush cards.
  
  Hero makes a flush if he gets
  4 flush cards,
  3 flush cards, or
  2 flush cards.
  
  Hero misses if he gets
  1 flush card or
  0 flush cards
  
  Thinking in terms of combinations, rather than permutations, there are
  6*5*4*3/1/2/3/4=15 ways to get 4/4 flush cards,
  6*5*4*19/1/2/3/1=380 ways to get 3/4 flush cards,
  6*5*19*18/1/2/1/2=2565 ways to get 2/4 flush cards.
  6*19*18*17/1/1/2/3=5814 ways to get 1/4 flush card, and
  19*18*17*16/1/2/3/4=3876 ways to get 0/4 flush cards.
  
  15+380+2565+5814+3876=12650 total.
  Checking, 25*24*23*22/1/2/3/4=12650.
  
  The first three combo totals make the flush for Hero.
  15+380+2565=2960
  
  2960/12650=0.2340 or 23.40% is the probability Hero makes a flush.
  0.7660/0.2340=3.274/1 or odds are roughly about 13 to 4 against.

Aren't there 52-20=32 cards left?

If so, Hero gets dealt three more cards from a 32 card stub that contains 7 flush cards and 25 non-flush cards.

Hero makes his flush 53.63% of the time.
Odds are roughly 7 to 6 in favor of Hero making the flush.

• The math:
  P=1-25*24*23/32/31/30=0.5363.

Sorry about the previous post. I'll edit it to correct.

Buzz

The first-to-act player has just been dealt his 10th card and it's not a flush card.

The player second/last-to-act has only been dealt 9 cards so far (technically, he's been dealt his tenth card but the first-to-act player hasn't seen it).

That leaves 33 cards unseen cards in the deck.


I calculate the same 53.63% figure with 32 unseen cards in the deck (which would be for the last-to-act player on 10th street).

For the first-to-act player, I'm getting 52.35%.

Interesting.

OK.

In that case, 7 flush cards out of 33. That makes 26 non-flush cards.

P=1-26*25*24/33/32/31=0.5235.

Hero makes his flush 52.35% of the time.
Odds are roughly 11 to 10 in favor of Hero making the flush.

Me too. I think you did your math correctly. I look forward to reading your article.

Buzz

Buddy of mine and I started our first match last night. We agreed to 100 hands at x/point. Played 25 hands in the time we had and recorded the score and number of hand to continue the match. Do most folks play x number of hands? Or to a certain score or stop loss?

Through 25 hands I'm down 43 to 64. I'm good with that. The first 10 hands were brutal.

Strat question. How many streets can we pull with a3 flush in back before we gotta settle for a pair type hand?

How many can we pull with an open ender in back?

depends on how many live outs you have and how many cards are left in the stub.

IMO we can draw TWO cards with a three flush until we need to start accepting pairs. Note that if we hit a fourth flush card before we pair, that we en play as a four flush.

Valid. I'm thinking he has 2-3 of our outs and we are head up.