If you are playing 88+ fantasy land then obv.

T
JJ
QQ

is best. This is not best for non-fantasy land or QQ+ fantasyland.

TT is a 5 point royalty. But a full house is a 6 point royalty. If you go for a 5 point royalty on top, you weaken the rest of the hand, and while you probably won't get scooped, you won't scoop your opponent either. You have 3 outs to make your royalty.

A full house is a 6 point royalty. and you have 4 outs to get there. Setting QQJJ back means also that you can go for a very strong middle - making two pair there allows for an AA or KK top, which if you boat up in back, is not only certain to scoop, but alsomake an enormous royalty.

If the hand builds out to something like

KK2
TT447
QQJJQ

You should expect 6 + 8 + 6 = 20 pts total.


My second choice is

X
QJ
QJT

If you go for a royal in back, you will need to dump early diamonds that are not the A or K which will block the other hands from developing, making a scoop less likely.

Note that on my starting set would normally break a pair of QQ for the purpose of going for flush over flush or a royal. Fo instance, in instead our initial 5 cards were QJTQ9

X
Q9
QJT

This should be obvious.


But regarding two pair vs royal draw CONSIDERING THE BACK ONLY:

Two pair becomes a boat 54% of the time, so 6 * .54 = 3.24

QJTs becomes a royal less than 3% of the time, so 25 * .029 = .725

While a 3 flush will make a flush in back (normally) 63% of the time, if we are going to discard diamonds under 9 for the 6th-8th street, then we'll make our Q high flush less than 40% - 4 * .4 = 1.6



However, if we put *any* diamond in back immediately, then we make any flush 63%, and this is then 4 * .63 = 2.52


So, 2.52 + .725 = 3.245 for the royal+flush - it would appear to be a WASH between puting two pair in back and setting for the royal (when a royal is worth 25), EXCEPT that if we take ALL available diamonds as they come, the EV for a royal will be somewhat less than .725, for those times that we take other diamonds that end up blocking the royal. We're going to end up blocking a royal more than half of the time that the royal might have come in if we take any diamond, so the EV of a flush + royal is more like 2.9


The WORST set is

T
JJ
QQ

UNLESS you are playing fantasy land where TT gets you into fantasy land.

I would wager good money that a QQ/JJ/T setup is more likely to beat an average hand then a QQJJ/T setup. QQJJ/T clearly yields the lowest EV possible. I would set QJT/QJ personally

Show your math. "clearly lowest" is a falsehood.

QQJJ/T/X allows for a two pair middle, which in turn allows for a fantasy land top. Even if middle or top don't get that strong, you are 54% to boat up in back, worth 6 points.

QQ/JJ/T - you are 43% to make a 5 point royalty, but your back needs to go a long ways to improve to scoop.

QQ/JJ/10 is good against an opponent that fouls often and should scoop enough even against conservative opponents. I think u may be underestimating how often this hand turns into a monster.

Also in the "QQJJ/T is wrong" camp. I think you're overweighting the marginal value of drawing to a boat from the start versus drawing to QQ/QJTs, overestimating your chances of making some kind of monster when you start with QQJJ in back, (I mean, you're looking for a T, high pair, low pair, and maybe a Q/J in your last 8 cards for this to happen, while also setting them all in the correct places), and underestimating the marginal difference in scoop equity (and not fouling) between QQJJ and QQ/JJ/T.

Wow you guys. I showed the math....


Oh yea, but math not needed to GAMBOL!

If you think your sets are correct and the other sets are incorrect then play them for money.

Game would be pretty boring if figuring out the odds to make your hand was all you needed to do.

I do.


LOL.

And I didn't suggest that, now did I?

You are confusing doing arithmetic with actually solving the problem. It is very possible for every calculation you've done to be correct while still drawing the wrong conclusion from your results.

No, I'm not.

When I say show the math, I mean "Lucy, you sum 'splainin' to do".

So far, objections to QQJJ/T/x. Have been "oh that's clearly wrong". I've defended, explaining why it's best, and showing EV. The rest of the comments have only stated superlatives without basis.

I don't think you actually understand how to calculate the EV of setting a hand. You've said lots of things and shown lots of numbers, but none of them actually prove your assertion. That's why I say you're only doing arithmetic. But frankly, I'm not particularly interested in arguing math with nonmathematicians again. There are plenty of arguments against your set in this thread, and if you want to handwave them away because they're not quantifiable, fine, but your supporting evidence is equally unquantifiable.

If you knew, you would show or discuss. I have provided a breakdown and multiple reasons AND math. You have done none of this, only being contrary. Either show your logic/reasoning/EV calcs, OR just GAMBOL on, bro.

For the record, I am developing a software solution to simulate COFP hands.

FWIW I appreciate you doing the math and making a case. It seems hard if not impossible to figure the ev of QQ/JJ/T. You would need to figure out how often your opponent miss sets, how often your hand improves, etc etc. Then you have all the scoring and fantasy land implications to consider as well as how many players. Given that you will make at least trips on bottom 35% of the time I don't think it's right just to assume QQJJ/T/X is a better set.

I'm curious as to what point value people assign to fantasy land. Is the consensus that making fantasy land is the equivalent of an additional 12pt royalty?

Fish question/brag hand

Got dealt a pat straight that included a gutter to a straight flush. First to act you just play the 4 card straight flush and it's not close, right?

Indeed, it is hard to estimate EV - the best one can do is estimate the expectation of making a particular hand vs a different hand/set.

Regarding TRIPS:

Here are the huge important differences:

1) QQJJ is twice as likly to make a boat, as QQ is to make trips

2) trips has NO royalty, a boat has a 6 point royalty.

3) trips can not beat a straight, flush, or larger trips. A boat CAN.

I think putting the 4 card sf in back is best. May depend on which card you are then setting in middle, and what your opponent has and the dead cards, etc. Depending on your opponents hand, and how your other rows are doing, if you don't spike the SF by 7th or 8th st, take any flush card that then comes along.

For instance, if you are in position. And your opponent has a lot of your needed flush cards, then I might just keep the straight.

Assuming that you haven't seen any other cards, that is exactly how I would play it. There's argument to be made that a straight is a made hand, and shouldn't be ignored. Here's what I believe makes the difference...

Is the straight Broadway or is it 2-6? If it's 2-6 I'm more likely to play the straight knowing that I could make some larger pair combos and produce a big bonus on top. If it's a Broadway or at least Q high straight I'm more likely to draw to the flush in hopes that if somehow I miss everything, I can always save myself with a high pair on the bottom.

Regarding the QQJJT hand, I briefly read through most of the posts and there are great arguments for all settings. I believe this would ultimately depend on what position I was in. Assuming that I'm first to act I'm more likely to play QQ - JJ - T. The reason being is that once I've seen the board play out I can then determine what cards are missing from the board (i.e. after all players have played their initial 5 cards all 7's, 8's, & 9's are live) then once I draw one of those cards I can place it on the bottom in an attempt to make my stronger hand.

Also, what's interesting is this perspective...what if you're last to act and 2-3 of your outs are gone for the QQJJ boat? In that case as well I'm more likely to play the QQ - JJ - T.

There's also argument to be made if you're dealing with a QJT of one suit. In this situation (last to act) and you still hold your straight/royal flush outs as well as some saving straight outs then I'm not ruling out the idea of playing the QJTs - Q - J. Of course if my QJ outs are gone, I may also play it like QJTs - QJ - if I'm holding several flush outs and off-suit straight outs. Making a 4-point royalty flush on the bottom and 4-point royalty straight in the middle is strong.

I'm not entirely certain which of the above is most optimal. I will always play according to what I've seen on the board, and the tendencies of other players. <---- This is something I think most are missing. If your opponents are the types to go for full houses on bottom regularly and avoid drawing to flushes, then that should be considered. I play regularly with someone who is constantly trying to make big pairs up top (not playing Fantasyland), and he regularly fouls his hand. In this instance I'm more likely to play my QQJJ - T to be a bit safer with the idea that he may foul.

If acting last and two+ of my outs for a BOAT with QQJJ are dead, but I am live for the royal, then obviously setting QJTs/QJs is best.

3-7. Hadn't seen any other cards.

AlienBoy brought up a good point about when to accept the flush. Wish I could remember the exact hand I know I played just a standard flush on an early street but don't remember much else it was a long session after that.

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oop HU, standard fantasyland scoring

Q95 7 Q

which is best

QQ
975

Qd9d5d
7s
Qc

Qd9d5d
7sQc

I like 579/-/QQ. You've got straight potential in the back. Any A, K, or Q goes in the middle. If you get a card below a 5, put it in the middle and go for 2-pr.

You have to hope you don't get Ts or Js.