Second to last draw and my opponent is in fantasy-- had been three handed but one of the players has lost the max and is forced to sit out.

A6
7523
QTT

I draw A43, and don't have any queens or tens in my discards-- are we gambling here for a 15 card fantasy and putting the ace on top or playing it safe since we already have a wheel locked up? Drawing blind to make the bottom hand doesn't seem great, and as villain is in fantasy fouling could be painful, but that also seems like an argument for gambling.

I'm sort of curious about what the math says here though. If it were three handed, or if I had a AK on top and not A6, I'd just play the ace on the bottom as I have more opportunities to recatch a big card, but with the 6 up there idk.

Results are I gambled and fouled.

I crunched the math on situations such as this and wrote an article on it that would have been in 2+2 magazine soon but they canceled the mag with new ownership

Play it safe and go to FL

Your opponent in FL doesn’t sway it as you have to pay out his royalties regardless, so it’s just a matter of how many lines you expect to win

Gamble with just a seven low

You're risking 9 (4 for wheel plus 5 for no scoop) + value of 14 card to win 9+2(aces plus winning an extra spot)+difference between 14 and 15 card. IIRC a 5-outter comes in around 45% of the time plus the running pairs, so you're around 50/50 to make it I think? I don't know enough about the value of 15 card to answer the actual question, though.