Passive older guy opens hj. Losing player, fairly fishy co three bets. I 4 bet button with 87653. Call call. Draw #1 2,1, pat. Checks to me, I bet. Older guy calls, co check raises, I call. Draw #2. Older guy draws 2, hj pats, I now pitch the 8. I catch a 4. Older guy checks, CO bets, I fold. Thoughts?

This hand isn't really breakable. drawing to 2 or 3 outs since you need only a 2 to improve. Hard to imagine at least 1 villain doesn't hold a 2.

I think i'd prefer to decide whether or not we believe CO's c/r and either 3bet him or fold right there. Against less creative straightforward 27 players I'd expect them to have an 8 or better here all the time making it a fold.

If we think we are still ahead we should 3bet to try to isolate with our vulnerable hand.

I'd need more of a read on the guy to say for sure what to do. Maybe he made a 9 and thinks he can get you to break or fold by the end of the hand. Or he has a good 9 and thinks you have a worse one.

Could be a decent unexpected spot to snow too especially if he saw a lot of key cards. He could just be doing this and patting and hoping neither player catches a 9 or better to look him up. Pat hands from the start are much weaker on average than drawn pat hands, so he could expect certain people to fold or break some chunk of their dealt pat range.


All in all this is the bottom of our range here anyways so unless he is pretty aggro or FPSy I don't think we need to call this down.

too tight to fold pre here?

Agree totally with dboy and think Ned’s suggestion is within reason. Though with the button this hand can be somewhat easy to play.

One final idea is to bluff raise turn here and fire off.

Probably not a large mistake but I think it would be too tight. We can always get away later.

While I agree that this isn’t ideal hand to break when we get CR on the first steeet we are getting 18-effective to catch a deuce. Given that we get to raise th big street when we catch it then calling and breaking will always be better than folding (3 betting still may be best).

The closer spot is when we now improve to 3457 and are still getting a rather decent, albeit worse price to catch a deuce and possible win with 8s now the times 875 will win

You are on to something here. I think my natural inclination in these spots is to assume 2 deuces are dead but that may not always be the case. I did some math to see what's good here.

13.5 sb pf.

Assuming older guy doesn't backraise(highly unlikely):

18.5:1 immediate odds, 5.4%

we know 5 cards and can safely assume at least one player holds a 2 so 6 known cards.

deuces left
3/47 = 6.38%

We have correct immediate odds to call and draw

If we assume at least 2 deuces are dead

2/46 = 4.35%

we don't have immediate odds to draw in this scenario.

But getting to raise a made #4 should make up for the difference. Much rather be drawing to the nuts but I'm sure a #4 has slightly positive implied odds here.

As for continuing after a brick I don't think we can.

We'd be getting 10.75:1 to call (9.3%) but only have a 6.38% (or worse) chance to hit a 2. I don't think we can make up that difference with river implied bets.

I like your play pre, esp in position against two weak players.

I'd 3 bet the flop, as people often take shots at hands that pat pre. We aren't 3b for value, we're 3b to get him to break.

In what way is the CO fishy? Does he quick pat weak hands and play them over-aggressively? Or is he weak-tight and his flop x/r usually means has a decent 86 or better?

If he's the type to pat hands like 24589 pre, then I wouldn't even bother 3b the flop. I'd just call down.