My badugi math assumes that I am roughly 60% to made a badugi in a 4card game drawing one on three streets. I think if I made a 9-9 after the first draw I would pat feeling more confident in winning half the pot with a 9badugi than a 87432 lo.
I definitely agree with you that BTNs most likely hand is a rough 3card badugi hand like 346,356, etc as you mentioned as he should be 3! 1 card draws pre, but many players will also call two card badugis/3 card lows with a 2 as well (23r7xx, 24r7xx, etc) as they are behind our range but have position and will price weaker blind hands (34rxxx, 28rxxx, etc) into the pot.
Also I am aware that my previous posts look like I am confident drawing 2 is best but I am mostly trying to argue that side since I believe it is a reasonable position to take and was discounted early on as an option (although I still feel it is the best play, maybe not so much after all the responses
). When you discuss card removal, to me, staying PAT from the start is looking like a healthier option than drawing 1 as well. Drawing 1 to a 5 or 6 to improve for half the pot, along with many of those cards being dead, really kills both sides to our hand.
When you say you'll take your chances of the other player making a 7-8 badugi vs our nut 3 card I feel you underestimate how showdown bound people are in this game who will often showdown any badugi esp vs a PAT hand from beginning and those drawing two on river. Also, in regular 2-7 is it standard to PAT the 87432 4 way from start in a similar situation/If so, what is the worst hand we are PAT with here?
For the badeucey sims, are you talking about running rugged sims by hand or is their a specific program you use?
Thank you all for the responses.