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Old 06-20-2018, 10:17 PM   #1
Dynasty
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Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

This hand is from Bellagio 40-80 mixed game.

The game is five-handed at the moment and is generally aggressive with very few hands not getting raised pre-draw/pre-flop regardless of the game.

I'm in the big blind for this hand.

Pre-Draw
The action was folded to the Small Blind who was typically aggressive. He had raised in this exact spot in the previous orbit and drew one.

He raised in this hand.

I had 763Q

I called.

First Draw
Both of us drew one card and I caught the 8 for a 8763 badugi.

The Small Blind bet. I raised. He three-bet. I called.

Second Draw
The Small Blind stood pat. I stood pat.

The Small Blind bet.


My question is whether I should raise for value here or whether I should just call to prevent my opponent from breaking a hand like A23J.

Is there a matrix/graph with my own holding on one axis and the pot size on the other to aid in this kind of decision?
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Old 06-21-2018, 08:11 AM   #2
Codfish60
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

Pat and call down imo. In a 1:1 spot he's going to have an 8 on average so I think raising is a bit thin. If he's overplaying a worse badugi, I want to let him continue firing drawing dead. If he fires river as well I expect to be beat very often.

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Old 06-21-2018, 04:06 PM   #3
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

I would freeze the turn with this exact hand and often raise the river. You are ahead of villain's Badugi range given that isn't required to be smooth, an aggressive player should have some snow here and can play a Ten, Nine or worse Eight precisely the same way. All tolled that's a lot of hands. I'd never fold the river. If he would typically check the river with bottom of the range he isn't barreling with, you can bet for value when he checks, but if you freeze the turn most players will bet Tens or better on the river and you beat most of those hands so I'd stick a raise in.

You own yourself once in a while but in a BvB spot where you didn't 3b your D1 hand, your opponent should have a lot of weak hands and think he's good. Good hands are rare in this game but if he has one, say a smooth Seven or better, he may c/r the river, so if villain is capable of that and you have other indications of strength from observation you can check behind, but lacking info I'd bet if checked to.
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Old 06-21-2018, 10:38 PM   #4
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

I'd also freeze turn. If I had to guesstimate, I'd be calling river 70% of the time and raising 30% of the time. Always bet when checked to.

I think if villain bets river, that tells us more about the strength of his hand than his flop 3 bet.

Last edited by MacauBound; 06-21-2018 at 10:39 PM. Reason: congrats on the stud bracelet
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Old 06-22-2018, 07:15 AM   #5
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

I'd 3! pre and raise river
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Old 06-22-2018, 07:41 AM   #6
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

What electrical said.

Congrats again, sir!
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Old 06-22-2018, 11:46 PM   #7
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

I like freezing turn. Don't think river is a clear raise though. Can you raise/fold? Do you really want to call 3 on the river?
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Old 06-22-2018, 11:51 PM   #8
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

i don't understand freezing with intention of raising river. does he really have that many outs against us?
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Old 06-23-2018, 12:07 AM   #9
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

should villain be b/3betting a j? it seems to me in a d1/d1 spot, snows are not even part of the equation. i'm not sure about flop tho as i don't play this game. should villain still be betting all of his good tri's? my guess is yes, and your raise should only be 100% badugis. so on turn it's 100% badugi vs badugi which seems like it'd be easy to figure out gto strategy for those 2 streets.
is there a list of badugi combos i could find? or some badugi combo math anyone could share?
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Old 06-23-2018, 12:32 AM   #10
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

I think this is just a simple call down. And if the plan is to raise and call a 3bet then I like raise even less. I agree with others that a river bet does signify strength.

I don't think calling to freeze plays a huge role in Badugi. I've looked at some of the math in 27TD situations and freezing really doesn't seem to add that much EV (over a raise line) and usually villain has many more outs in 27TD as opposed to Badugi. It's worth a little though, it does offer some compensation when you call down with the better hand and missed max value on that one particular hand.

And unless there is some super untrusting aggressive dynamic going on your hand is not super strong among drawn badugis.
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Old 06-23-2018, 12:44 AM   #11
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

Quote:
Originally Posted by / / ///AutoZone View Post
should villain be b/3betting a j? it seems to me in a d1/d1 spot, snows are not even part of the equation. i'm not sure about flop tho as i don't play this game. should villain still be betting all of his good tri's? my guess is yes, and your raise should only be 100% badugis. so on turn it's 100% badugi vs badugi which seems like it'd be easy to figure out gto strategy for those 2 streets.
is there a list of badugi combos i could find? or some badugi combo math anyone could share?
d1 vs d1 snows are always in play especially when both players are in blinds and have weaker on average tris, however, I think it is a mistake to go crazy snowing in once raised pots with no dead money. But that doesn't mean others won't do it or won't suspect it.


Villain should bet 100% with all of his good tris and he will often bet with his bad ones as well if he's aggressive. Therefore you can and should raise when you hit a very good tri in position.


So it doesn't have to be badugi vs badugi with this action, he will practically always have one but you don't have to.


Badugi combo math? Distribution is quite easy for drawn badugis, if he started with 742, five outs will give him a better hand than hero and five will give him a worse one. I get into basic math stuff here:

https://www.countingouts.com/masteri...gi-essentials/

Anyhow given we are right around the median I think it is just a call down. Equation can change if villain is doing stuff like opening and playing really bad tris but that wasn't included as part of any read here.
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Old 06-23-2018, 06:24 AM   #12
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

First of all I prefer to 3! pre. You're often a card ahead and your preflop overrepresention of your hand will allow you to get away with some more snows if and when he improved to a better 3-card and you choose to do so.

In this spot I strongly prefer a freeze. I'm torn between calling and raising on the river if he bets again, but I guess lean towards just calling. Obviously you will bet yourself if he checks.
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Old 06-23-2018, 05:14 PM   #13
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

thanks sodr
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Old 06-23-2018, 08:01 PM   #14
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

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Originally Posted by RolldUpTrips View Post
First of all I prefer to 3! pre. You're often a card ahead and your preflop overrepresention of your hand will allow you to get away with some more snows if and when he improved to a better 3-card and you choose to do so.

In this spot I strongly prefer a freeze. I'm torn between calling and raising on the river if he bets again, but I guess lean towards just calling. Obviously you will bet yourself if he checks.
when do you decide to turn your hand into a snow here, after he d1's? when he c/c's, c/r's, or leads out?
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Old 06-24-2018, 02:31 AM   #15
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

Results:

I just called after the second draw with the intention of raising the river.

Third Draw
The Small Blind stood pat. I stood pat.

Small Blind checked. I bet. He called.

My hand was good.

He flashed a 9. I don't know if he would have broken a 9 but it seems unlikely.
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Old 06-24-2018, 06:11 AM   #16
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kisada View Post
when do you decide to turn your hand into a snow here, after he d1's? when he c/c's, c/r's, or leads out?
You can do it in all of these instances. Not every time, of course, but some percentage of the time in all of those cases (although he really shouldn't ever be leading). Sometimes you should do it on the flop, sometimes on the turn. Be unpredictable.
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Old 06-24-2018, 03:49 PM   #17
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dynasty View Post
Results:

I just called after the second draw with the intention of raising the river.

Third Draw
The Small Blind stood pat. I stood pat.

Small Blind checked. I bet. He called.

My hand was good.

He flashed a 9. I don't know if he would have broken a 9 but it seems unlikely.
This is tendency of alot players to check this but by doing do so my grandmom (after 5 minutes of coaching from me) could play the river perfectly against him. He needs to bet and give himself a chance to make money on the river.

Anyhow, this is why I don't really have a delay and then raise river line. As a river bet is usually very strong and he will check many hands.


I'll raise the turn with better hands (maybe even slightly better like a good 8 but definitely a 7) and other hands trying to get him to break.
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Old 06-24-2018, 07:11 PM   #18
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical View Post
I would freeze the turn with this exact hand and often raise the river. You are ahead of villain's Badugi range given that isn't required to be smooth, an aggressive player should have some snow here and can play a Ten, Nine or worse Eight precisely the same way. All tolled that's a lot of hands. I'd never fold the river. If he would typically check the river with bottom of the range he isn't barreling with, you can bet for value when he checks, but if you freeze the turn most players will bet Tens or better on the river and you beat most of those hands so I'd stick a raise in.

.
Based on your analysis raising river is wrong. Even if he bets tens or better (prob not true and 9s is more accurate), we are a huge dog. The math is pretty simple. Let’s assume he starts with 3 card 8 (if it’s smoother won’t matter). He has 5 outs to make a better hand than us and only 2 outs to make a 9/10.

I think people often confuse combinatorics with how likely he is to make a 9/10. Yes there are way more combos of 10s and 9s to make but if he has 345 he’s just as likely to make a 5 as he is a 9/10.

Not only are we more than a 2-1 dog vs his range here but when he does have a strong hand we are going to get 3 bet. So we can’t even raise river if we are 50-50 against his range, which were not.


Lastly, if he has some elaborate snow or getting stubborn with a king, raisin feel is equally pointless since he just folds
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Old 06-24-2018, 07:37 PM   #19
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

I don't think we should presume villain always starts smoother than Hero. Villain's range in this spot should include all 3-card Nines and reducing hands like T2A.
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Old 06-24-2018, 07:44 PM   #20
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

I could see some 3 card 9s, but very few ime. And the A2T played as a 2 cd. Not sure what villain's range should be, but I don't see much other than 3 cd 8s or better here, in practice.
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Old 06-24-2018, 08:19 PM   #21
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical View Post
I don't think we should presume villain always starts smoother than Hero. Villain's range in this spot should include all 3-card Nines and reducing hands like T2A.
No it shouldn’t
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Old 06-25-2018, 04:51 AM   #22
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

Quote:
Originally Posted by electrical View Post
I don't think we should presume villain always starts smoother than Hero. Villain's range in this spot should include all 3-card Nines and reducing hands like T2A.
T2A=2A. Drawing 1 is a huge mistake with a hand like that, especially HU. A strong 3cd is a strong hand HU, and you can often make one with 2A
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Old 06-25-2018, 05:02 AM   #23
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

I mostly agree with the advice posted so far about freezing the turn and maybe putting in a thin raise for value on the river.

I think you should probably just cap after d1 though


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Old 06-25-2018, 09:20 AM   #24
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolldUpTrips View Post
T2A=2A. Drawing 1 is a huge mistake with a hand like that, especially HU. A strong 3cd is a strong hand HU, and you can often make one with 2A
I agree, and I have argued for this line myself, but I have seen many players, especially in bvb situations draw one and show down QT, JT etc. and I think these hands will be regular parts of many SB open ranges. If not, there are still a lot of 3-card Nines in SB range, or do you think SB will just fold say 973 here?
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Old 06-25-2018, 10:35 AM   #25
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Re: Bellagio 40-80 Badugi: Value Raise or Deny Opponent Opportunity to Break?

Maybe I need to game select better but I don't see many QT and QJ badugis show up on the river after d1.

Anyhow, they also need to play it like this where they 3bet the flop and then bet the river.

Results of this hand may be somewhat atypical in that I think most players bet 9s on the river. But I'd say there are more players out there that would check nines than would bet tens.

But given the way this hand played out I do not think we are >50% good when faced with a river bet.
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