Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger415
Of those combos, how do I figure the probability of being dealt a tri 7 or better?
Same method as before but non-pair cases split in two
#3_card_hands_7_or_better = 4 x 7 x 6 x 5
4 cases
Case 1 - Same suit, not a pair, D <= 7
There are 12 (4 ranks, 3 suits)
The hand will look like
Ax By Cz Dx
The count will be repeated twice:
-- By Cz Dx
Ax By Cz --
Case 2 - Same suit, not a pair, D > 7
There are 18 (6 ranks, 3 suits)
The hand will look like
Ax By Cz Dx
The count will not be repeated:-
-- By Cz Dx
This does not count as D>7
Case 3 - Same suit, pair
There are 6 (3 ranks, 2 suits)
The hand will look like
Ax By Cz Ay
There's no repeat of count
Case 4 - Different suit, pair
There are 3 (3 ranks, 1 suit)
The hand will look like
Ax By Cz Aw
The count will be repeated twice:
-- By Cz Aw
Ax By Cz --
Case 5 -Different suit, non-pair
This leads to badugi - skip
Final calculation
#hands_exactly_tri_7_or_better = 4 x 7 x 6 x 5 x (12/2+18+6+3/2)
= 4 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 31.5 = 26460
Odds = 26460 / 270725 = 9.77%
Similar calcs give:-
Number of unique hands: 270725
Number of badugi hands: 17160
Number of tri hands (any): 154440
Number of tri hands (2 or better): 0
Number of tri hands (3 or better): 900
Number of tri hands (4 or better): 3456
Number of tri hands (5 or better): 8280
Number of tri hands (6 or better): 15840
Number of tri hands (7 or better): 26460
Number of tri hands (8 or better): 40320
Number of tri hands (9 or better): 57456
Number of tri hands (T or better): 77760
Number of tri hands (J or better): 100980
Number of tri hands (Q or better): 126720
Number of tri hands (K or better): 154440
Last edited by Nxia; 04-27-2019 at 04:31 PM.
Reason: pointless calc removed