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Originally Posted by RubbishCards
Yeah I'm not saying someone will always make a badugi, I'm saying that IF it is known that they do have one (i.e. they are pat, you are assuming they are not snowing, and they are standing on ANY badugi), it is possible to narrow down their range based on the amount that they drew, and therefore have an idea of what % of the time your hand is good should you improve to a badugi yourself.
I see. Good point. The flaw is not so much that opponents in my games are snowing as that they are not necessarily standing on any badugi. You'd have to know individually what opponents would stand on.
As I wrote in my last post, I got badly burned the last time I stood pat on a ten badugi. And a ten badugi is really the same if you make it on your first draw or your second (or third); it's still a ten badugi. It still loses to a nine badugi.
I think, in retrospect, not breaking a ten badugi is probably not a very good play for me in a pot-limit or no-limit game. I can't tell if someone betting has a better badugi or not. If I have taken a draw, someone could be betting a three card badugi into me. If I stand pat, any bet into me is probably a badugi, but maybe at least a seven. (Depends, of course). And what do I do with my ten badugi? Do I fold it if someone is bold enough to bet into me? (rhetorical).
The long and short of it is I don't think I want a ten badugi. I want to either get a better badugi or simply miss and have an obvious folding hand. I don't want a hand where I'll be faced with a difficult, mistake prone, decision.
What about a nine badugi? I don't know. I have to think about that some more. (I'm obviously not an expert at badugi).
And my opponents are regularly breaking badugis and drawing for better ones.
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In fact here are some more detailed results, for the top n% badugis in increments of 10%:
top 90%, 80%, ... down to 10%
xxxx drawing 4: KJ9A, K98A, K53A, QT7A, Q752, J976, J52A, T652, 942A
Axxx drawing 3: KT7A, K73A, QT8A, Q74A, J97A, J53A, T72A, 965A, 843A
A2xx drawing 2: K72A, QJ2A, Q52A, J82A, T92A, T42A, 942A, 842A, 652A
Thanks for the data.
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If you think they will not pat a queen badugi on the first round then of course you can't assume that should you make a J it is good >50% of the time.
My current thinking is it's poor play to pat a
ten badugi, (and I don't know about a nine).
Buzz