Quote:
Originally Posted by ScotchOnDaRocks
Sounds like a typical spot. In practice I don’t think he’s snowing very often if at all here. You dont want to be making call downs based upon what he theoretically could do to exploit you, only what he is capable of doing. And the option of making a snow play may be profitable but just calling again and drawing may be higher EV from perspective of villain.
If you are any good with spreadsheets you can basically solve for how often the snow sequence has to work out for him to be profitable and then try and determine with what you need to call down with to not be exploitable in theory
But sometimes you should raise the turn with a tri as good as yours in this spot
I'm no good with excel, but I can attempt to do gorilla math to estimate frequencies. After hero cbets the flop, there's 5.5 small bets (2.75 big bets) in the pot.
Villain is going to risk 3 big bets whereas hero is going to risk upto 2.5 big bets (0.5 big bets on the flop, 1 big bet on the turn, and 1 big bet on the river).
Assuming hero always goes to the river, there will be villain's 3 big bets + hero's 1.5 big bets (0.5 big bets on flop and 1 big bet on turn) + 2.75 initial big bets. Villain is risking 3 big bets to win 4.25 big bets.
The bluff has to work 3/7.25 (41%) of the time to be profitable. I guess since hero gets to draw at a badugi 3 times, hero should be showing down over 41% of the time. Am I correct to think if villain tries to snow here, it would most likely always be a mistake? I think hero can just muck a good tri on the river and not be exploited.
This is all over simplified and hero can make a badugi on the turn and has the option to raise. But I'd guess the numbers are close to this ballpark.
Last edited by tiger415; 04-09-2019 at 10:49 PM.