Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob...Chill
(1) I don’t like 3 bet (2) c betting unimproved is horrible (3) you are not gonna win 1/2 unimproved on river 1/2 the time.
I'm going to try to argue my side by disagreeing with your 3rd point ("you are not gonna win 1/2 unimproved on river 1/2 of the time").
Some parameters:
1) We have 643r.
2) We assume that Villain started w 256r, (the 2nd best 3 card badugi that is currently not beating us, yet is also very high in his range so we generally have even more equity than this near worst case scenario)
3) Villain does not keep a J-A badugi in first two draws (even though if we check turn it is probably smart of him to keep them).
4) Villain bets any badugi on river when we draw 2 on turn.
IMO, the chance that he doesn't improve his badugi to beat ours unimproved EVEN IF he never keeps a non-badugi, suited 7-J is ~50%, thus we are profitable calling any river for 1/2 pot where he shows no signs of aggression to have improved to a badugi in previous streets. If we include his chance of making a badugi when he does keep a non-badugi/suited 7-J on flop or turn then his odds of improving to a badugi are SIGNIFICANTLY less.
If he has 2h5d6c and we stick to the parameters I mentioned above, then his outs to beat us are 3d, 4d, 3c, 4c, 3s, 4s, 7s, 8s, 9s, 10s. The chances he goes miss, miss on the flop and turn are 65% (35% to make a badugi). {1 - [37/47] x [37/45]}. If we then include all badugis on river then he becomes roughly 50% to make a badugi {1 - [37/47] x [37/45] x [33/43]}. Thus, folding getting 2.5-1 would be lighting $ on fire.
2) As for cbetting the flop, I would think of it as an often times potential free river card. If we check the flop then we give away that our 3 card tri is weak. I would much rather risk getting check raised on flop for 1 bet, seeing where we're at in the hand, and folding turns unimproved then checking back flop and having to fold turns unimproved.
3) I would fold pre v a lot of tighter players but against a super loose player I think we want to 3! to protect both sides of our hand/we also have an equity advantage.
Last edited by NedSchneebly; 07-20-2018 at 07:22 AM.