When you start to suspect someone is opening any 3 low cards regardless of suit how do you adapt?

let's say we have 643r in the CO, HJ opens a wide range. Normally this hand is a steal for me, but a fold facing a raise.

Would you guys just continue to fold that type of hand, or look to 3bet or coldcall?

He starts to have a lot more hands we are beating equity wise but still has the good openers too. But we have position and the chance to knock out the blinds and btn with a 3bet.

But we also open ourselves up to playing more marginal draws in 3 and 4bet 3-4way pots.

Risking a little more money pre-draw and contributing a larger % of the pot to isolate a player we are more likely to scoop, might yield more EV than vice versa. I don't think I'd expand my cc range though. This might apply to other draw/flop split-pot games as well, but I'm not sure.

3! Is always better than cold call here imo, our hand does much better hu than multiway

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I like 3! v a wide HJ open here w 643r in CO. We're probably ahead and we can easily see where we're at depending on 1) if HJ 4! pre 2) if HJ xR or just xC the flop. Seems like our hand has more equity and plays better than even like 23r4XX.

If we don't improve on flop I still like a cbet as well. If still unimproved on turn I would prefer a check. If again unimproved on river we can call and be good for half almost 1/2 of the time imo (only need to be good like 30% here).

Just to be clear, my advice is general. If the question is whether I'd 3b 346r after a loose HJ opens, w 3 players left to act, my answer would be no. It's not that I'm worried about the HJ and his 2s7s8d; it's that 346r is prob a fold in most lineups/rake structures

Call. You guys underestimate how often people that open wide still Get dealt a decent hand or make something.

(1) I don’t like 3 bet (2) c betting unimproved is horrible (3) you are not gonna win 1/2 unimproved on river 1/2 the time.

I'm going to try to argue my side by disagreeing with your 3rd point ("you are not gonna win 1/2 unimproved on river 1/2 of the time").

Some parameters:

1) We have 643r.
2) We assume that Villain started w 256r, (the 2nd best 3 card badugi that is currently not beating us, yet is also very high in his range so we generally have even more equity than this near worst case scenario)
3) Villain does not keep a J-A badugi in first two draws (even though if we check turn it is probably smart of him to keep them).
4) Villain bets any badugi on river when we draw 2 on turn.

IMO, the chance that he doesn't improve his badugi to beat ours unimproved EVEN IF he never keeps a non-badugi, suited 7-J is ~50%, thus we are profitable calling any river for 1/2 pot where he shows no signs of aggression to have improved to a badugi in previous streets. If we include his chance of making a badugi when he does keep a non-badugi/suited 7-J on flop or turn then his odds of improving to a badugi are SIGNIFICANTLY less.

If he has 2h5d6c and we stick to the parameters I mentioned above, then his outs to beat us are 3d, 4d, 3c, 4c, 3s, 4s, 7s, 8s, 9s, 10s. The chances he goes miss, miss on the flop and turn are 65% (35% to make a badugi). {1 - [37/47] x [37/45]}. If we then include all badugis on river then he becomes roughly 50% to make a badugi {1 - [37/47] x [37/45] x [33/43]}. Thus, folding getting 2.5-1 would be lighting $ on fire.

2) As for cbetting the flop, I would think of it as an often times potential free river card. If we check the flop then we give away that our 3 card tri is weak. I would much rather risk getting check raised on flop for 1 bet, seeing where we're at in the hand, and folding turns unimproved then checking back flop and having to fold turns unimproved.

3) I would fold pre v a lot of tighter players but against a super loose player I think we want to 3! to protect both sides of our hand/we also have an equity advantage.

Ned, haven't walked through your math but it does not agree with mine. Over the course of two draws this is what I have that the 256 would end up with:

Make 8 badugi and 8 low 8%
Make 8 badugi only 21%
Make 8 low, no badugi 16%
45%


Notice that this is just 8 lows and 8 badugis as I was trying to model scooping scenarios in the purpose that I calculated these. This does not encompass reducing his incomplete or making higher badugis

At any rate I don't think folding an UI 346 to be lighting money on fire.

I think I prefer a call. I'm not really sure you are pushing a meaningful equity edge over something like (24)7 if those are the hands you are talking about. Maybe drag in some rough eights from the blinds. See what happens, if you bink you can build it. If not, possible EO.


Players tend to be too showdown oriented in Badeucey, when you shoot it up pre you more or less make those calls correct or at least more correct.

If you are concerned about information hiding regarding tris, don't think that's a real issue as you can 3bet 237 which is a worse tri and like I said players are too showdown anyway.

say you call with the 346r here and don't improve. at what point are you ditching the hand postflop? isn't flop an auto peel HU IP, unless he was maybe pat to start?

if we call the river we're not going to win 1/2 with the 346 1/2 of the time. I don't really know what all of this math means.

you cant just give villain a hand and throw out some random math (which is also wrong) to justify your conclusion. For example, what if we catch the 2s and 3h on a draw? he makes a 6 badugi, but you don't even count that as an account, not to mention improvingto better 3 cards.

but even more importantly, let assume our math was right, you only focus on the odds of our oppoennt making a hand that beats our 3 card 6 on the river, yet you compeltely neglect what his betting range on the river is....

now lets take a random example and say he is 2.5-1 to make a badugi on the river what % of non badugo hands will he actually bet? probably 9 lows only.... now what % of the time does he have a 9 low and a 3 card hand worse than us......

so the real question is how often does villain actually start with a hand worse than 346, never improve on his 3 card after 3 draws, while simuktenously making at least a 9 low on the end and then also value bets exactly 8/9 loe witht the 3 card 6 (while also rmemebring that 7 and 8 lows even tougher to make witht eh 346 striaght draw)...



its not even close, calling is lighting money on fire, cant imagine how you can say, "Thus, folding getting 2.5-1 would be lighting $ on fire."

What % of the time do you think 643r gets half then given villains range?

A loose Villlain generally doesn't even have a three card badugi when opening here. The math I did was in a worst case scenario as well. If you don't take the time to disprove my math and then say "i don't even know what all this math means" when I feel like I explained it pretty clearly it's hard to just say that your gut feeling is correct.

Oh it’s an auto peel on flop of course.

By EO I’m more referring to heavy action on turn multiway. But I’m also not calling UI in small HU pot on turn

I don’t know what it means because it’s all wrong

For starters your asking all the wrong questions. What% of the time villain fsts half in a badeuxy simulation is far different question than what % of the time we get half when Villian bets the river.

Who cares how loose he is pre. That’s completely irrelevant info (well almost) in calling the river. Lots of people play super loosw pre in this game and shelr passive post.

And it’s not my gut feeling. I just told you why you were wrong so you don’t make similar mistakes in the future when analyzing hands. But I’m not going to go into why I’m right.

The worst case scenario isn’t villian having 652. It’s him having say 345 or better which is absurdly easy to do both orefloo and after drawing 3 times to improve