75-150 game. villan is drunk loose, crazy and aggro.

I raise with A246x, he calls bb and draws 3, i draw one
i catch: A2468
check, bet, call.

2 more draws to come. he draws 2. do i dump the 8 or stand pat?

Versus a typical D3 range (Aw, 2w, A6) that improved by one card to a 3-wheel or 3 to a Six you are 3:1 favorite patting. If you draw to the Six you are about a 3:2 favorite with an implied odds benefit, in that if you improve and bet the river, you'll still be winning most of the time you get called or raised. Much less often with an 86, and vs many it would not be worth it to bet the river with an 86.

Heads up vs D2 I think we can discount the implied position somewhat since villain will still be drawing on the river most of the time, sometimes drawing two, which means he will rarely have a hand he can call with, much less raise with, and often enough you will degrade your hand with a small pair or big card.

If you pat many villains are likely to surrender equity on the turn UI or with a poor D1, and when we have a vulnerable hand we want him to. This reason, that villain will give up equity when you pat but will continue correctly when you draw, would be enough for me to pat.

Mandatory pat imo, I would pat any 9 or better and even patting a t has merit

The 86 is a pat in position, but I'm not patting a 9 there and wouldn't even consider a 10.

We can't ever vbet river w a 96 (cant really vbet 86 on river after patting after first draw, but maybe so against this villain). He's only drawing 2 and has 2 draws left. Patting 96 after the first draw is like patting a T7642 in 2-7. It's much easier to make an 8 or a 7 in A-5 than it is to make a 9 or 8 in 2-7, as straights don't matter in A-5.

So if villain has 235xx and we are quick patting hands like 96/T6 after the first draw, not only can "drunk, agro, loose" villain put us in tough spot if he leads river, but good players are really going to pummel us when they know their 23567 is often good enough to lead into our 1atat range.

Yeah patting a 9 or T is very bad here. I’m def patting this hand though.


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thx....sounds like we're keeping this 86 in almost all scenarios? lets change it around and say open raised and villian 3 bets and calls one

check, villian bets, how many are check raising and patting (and breaking to a 3bet)? feels like the right line here?

Gonna assume that's a typo and he drew one instead of calls one. You can c/r lead turn and hope he folds a draw, but with draws 1:1, 0:1, 0:1 you can only c/c river.

Making a weak complete hand OOP is the toughest spot to play well in any form of draw poker, because your decision facing a raise is the most consequential decision in the hand. Your response to a raise will be almost completely dictated by your history with this villain. Breaking is suicide vs some, the only play vs others, and tough opponents will put you in this spot a lot.

Breaking to a 3b can be bad if villain is clever enough to 3b with a smooth draw or blockers, and if villain has a huge hand he will often sandbag by flatting the c/r in order to raise the turn where your break will have less equity. I know the general rule for limit poker is to raise when you're winning in position, but in draw you can defeat a strategy like c/r/break to 3b by not doing so, and good draw players know that.

But the biggest consideration is that D2 is dramatically weaker than D1, so much so that your value range can be quite wide.

Just to be clear, our 96 low is a 73.5% favorite vs a35xx with 2 draws to go, for example

Breaking would bring us to a 70.6% favorite, so not far apart, but patting a 9 is absolutely a reasonable option

Our 9 will stay about a 2-1 favorite when villain improves to a 1 card draw

Exact cards do matter quite a bit, if villain had the strongest possible holding of a24xx we would prefer to break instead of pat a 9 but we are looking at a relativey tiny 3% equity swing in that scenario (not to mention how the turn will play differently)

Patting a t would not make sense vs a drunkard, I still think there is room for this play theoretically vs different villains but no need to really focus on that in this thread

Patting a 9 or T makes my head hurt

I think patting a bad Nine occasionally has merit where patting a breakable Nine with a smooth redraw doesn't. You're not exactly snowing by patting the Nine but almost, in that you much prefer opponents to fold when they have substantial equity, and if your opponent can beat a Nine at showdown, it doesn't really matter how good your Nine is when you pat it.

If you are ever patting a Nine, it should probably be a pretty bad one. Having said that, I don't think I'd do it often.

I don't think there's any hand that I would play pre where I'm patting a 9 after 1

Folds to you late, you open X7642, BB defends and draws 3 or 2. I would probably draw 1. Our D2 is a dog to most D2 hands, we are a flip/slight favorite over A23 if we draw 1. You can fold there but might not want to.

You make a 9 he c/c and draws two. I would pat there some of the time. Not a regular thing but that's the spot I'm talking about. We gain equity (GM says drawing to the Seven we're 58% vs smooth D2, patting 97 makes us 64% with two draws to come) and a lot of hands can just give up after we pat flop.