Awhile back in a mix I raised A26 from the hijack and got three bet from a solid pro on the button. I called and we both drew two.

Flop went check/check and we both drew two again.

On the turn I did not improve once again and I think it's noteworthy and somewhat relevant that I have been catching high cards like kings and queens which makes it more likely that the cards he needs is more live.

1) If I had caught cards that paired me on the flop and turn (i.e. blockers) should I ever bet the turn unimproved? (seems like a good way to randomize) If called I think I would just draw two and not try and snow, agree?

Turn went check/ check.

2) Once I check does my opponent have a semi-automatic bet on the turn? There is a different dynamic than on the flop. On the flop it's somewhat more likely that he is going to get check/raised, at least I think so. Am I ever c/c or c/r here? If I improve I wouldn't be able to resist the urge because even if you make a strong badugi or good low (without a badugi) you want your opponent to fold and just scoop now. Does anyone have a c/c range here? On turn I am getting 3.75 to 1. Maybe I would call with A23 or something like that but also there is a high probability I would bet the turn with that.

I will continue along with the remainder of the hand, but first wanted to see if there were any thoughts so far...

1. Turning your hand into a bluff after drawing 4 blockers at some frequency is good poker. There are various lines we can bluff with. Still very opponent dependent. The pot is not that big so going into the night quietly can be fine.

2. No it's not an automatic bet. Hero is going to check the majority of the time here with his whole range, and often will not fold. There are a lot of reasons why checking back can be a good idea. As played, if villain bet I think folding would be fine.

Thanks, I was planning on just check folding the turn.

But OOP why would the hero check his entire range? I’m obviously unbalanced but I would bet any decent improvement. I would think a large majority of players would do the same. So this got me thinking that the in position player has a very profitable bet in this situation.

And by any decent improvement I mean any Badugi 8 or lower, a 76 made low or better or a card or that makes a four card low but does not improve me to a Badugi or better tri. Like if I had (A26)5.

Its just one of those spots where you almost always check to pre-flop agressor because they are representing a range advantage And also have position

Also because for many good hands, starting with a check has more profitable outcomes than leading

Those are the reasons why I checked the flop.

But the dynamic changed once he checked the flop as well. We drew the same amount of cards and his check on the flop probably indicates he does not have a super premium tri. We are basically on equal footing range wise.

But given all of that you would still check much of your range on the turn? If I'm holding (A26)5 it seems like a much better play to bet and try and win the pot unimproved. Think the fold equity is there against an opponent who is not super sticky because there was no betting on the flop and there is only one draw left.

I agree the action so far suggests hero and villain have similar-strength hands, my concern is villain has very strong positional advantage

When hero leads at too high a frequency here, it is easy to get punished, moreover after drawing 2 villain should expect the majority of hero's leading range to continue drawing 1, in which case his decisions on how to proceed with the hand profitably are not that tough

So while there is nothing wrong with having a leading range here, I think it will always be thin if properly balanced, constructing strategies with 100% check in this situation seem ok to me


Villain was also described as a solid pro, not someone who should be overfolding or playing too passively vs a lead here

Let me ask you (and anyone else that wants to chime in) this question. Is villain folding an unimproved 345? Let's assume that is what he has given card removal and the way he played it makes sense too. Should he be folding that hand?

And by unimproved, I mean he didn't improve the tri, make a badugi, or even make a 4 card seven

In your spot I'm checking a ton, and 100% against a bunch of opponents. I can't tell you the number of times I've xr here got called and had it gone 1/2 or pat/2. As you say, most villains bet their whole range (or most of it).

Sure villain is going to fold the unimproved 345 but he just isn't going to end up with that hand very often and if you have a wide leading range here, you're going to get punished when he makes any reasonable hand at all. Like in his spot I'm probably looking for any excuse to peel including a bunch of hands where I catch a rough 3card+ and will draw 2 if you pat... So just strengthen your range by checking a bunch of improvement and either xc or xr depending on how strong your hand is.

No, I think in general most of my opponents play fairly straightforward, bet when they improve and check when they don't when the number of the cards drawn is the same. Maybe my game isn't as far along on the evolution string. Anyhow I was thinking afterwards how he had what is seemingly such a profitable bet and didn't make it.

Anyhow, let's look at some math. With $300 in the pot it looks like he needs 21% fold equity to profit and that's assuming his hand spontaneously combusts and mucks if we call or c/r.

How often do we have a hand? I've run some numbers (and checked them with probability forum) for the 1st draw. I have not run them for the second draw, but they would be somewhat similar although more favorable to improving. But these should be close enough...

7 Badugi and 7 Low 4%
7 Badugi Only 14%
7 Low Only 5%
Four Card 7, No Badugi 34%
No Improvement 43%
100%

On 2nd draw we probably have around zero improvement 40% of the time. Even if he knows we are waiting to pounce with our strongest hands he can still bet anyway.

I think not looking beyond 7 lo/badugis is a mistake, especially after drawing 2

Villain can fold 345xx to a lead but its not automatic

Even though villain can bet a wide range fairly profitably there are still plenty of reasons he might check:

1. By card elimination, if villain bricked twice, hero will have improved more often

2. Villain may have improved modestly and is ok going to showdown cheaply - he may also be undecided on whether to draw 1 or 2, ex. Villain made a t hi badugi

3. Villain thinks a smaller pot will maximize his profitability (and a skill edge?) on the river

Yeah that’s a good point that I should look past the 7 low and badugis but the reason to me is that there is only one draw left so hand values change.

Those numbers I showed were on the 1st draw and at that time your goal is trying to improve strongly. But goals change.

So I’ll work on expanding numbers and rethink.

But moving along as played where the turn went check/check I ended up with (A24)68. Play on river?

Bet

Villain is likely to fold some badugis that checkback and win half

yeah, that is what I was thinking

First of all, I think we can agree that has zero value as a value bet even though I am a favorite to scoop. But only when it goes check/check. If I bet and get called I am never scooping, right?

Of course I got raised and scooped. It probably was a bad call considering the small pot size.

But afterwards I was thinking that maybe I could get king, queen, or maybe jack badugis to fold. And an A23. But if he has a ten/ten it seems like a good bluff catcher for him.

Might be results oriented, but it felt like a bad bet.

You can't fold to the raise

Villain had something like an 11% chance to beat your lo, and even when he does there is a tiny chance you tri-badugi is good

And yes, it will be fairly rare to xc and scoop, if villain is making pure bluffs or thin value betting some 8/9 los it can happen

Scotch I say this to be helpful - the assumptions you make and the way you think villains will play does not reflect any mix game I’ve ever played in anywhere. So either you play in a very odd game or your assumptions may not be as accurate as you think.

Lol I appreciate it my man, my skin is a foot thick

But what assumptions are you referring to? At times I requested feedback on how villains play, for example what is villain’s calling range on turn?

Also, just curious if you had my A26 and got a 3 or a 5 that did improve the tri or make a badugi, how would you play it?

Btw I made no assumptions until post 6 but then I quickly went back into asking questions mode lol

Let's take it from the beginning, I assumed villain would re-raise me pre-draw me with any three to a wheel(unsuited). Maybe this is the first assumption people may have a problem with but I would for various reasons even though I'm probably a slight equity dog against the HJ raising range.

Then the flop went check/check. If I had A23 my default would be to bet unimproved for again a variety of reasons. But would just take the free card with an unimproved lesser tri.

I just mentioned the 345 because it fits both patterns and because mathematically since I have A26 the 3s, 4s, and 5s are more likely.

Then I asked opinions if people would fold an unimproved 345 to a bet. The 345 is a good assumption to model him having because if my bet is not going to be profitable against 345 it surely is not going to be against something stronger. When you model something, it's best to first model the fringes.

I wanted to look deeper than "he might fold 345 but he's going to improve a lot and punish you". My goal was to get a consensus on what his calling range (and punish range) may be then figure out how often he will have those hands mathematically and make some observations.

Anything off the wall so far?

I just want to chime in and say as a learning player to many of these mixed games, it was very interesting and informative reading through this thread. It's great to see some top minds discussing spots and going back and forth with their reasonings, and also to see that strong players are constantly working to improve their games. Keep it up!

Cool, yeah I’m going to try and start new threads more often. I like to debate; I have certain thoughts on the game. But I try and keep an open mind. When you explain your reasoning and then someone explains to you why you are wrong; a very good thing just happened because your play just got better.

Anyhow, do you play this game at all? If so what is your hand range if you are the villain and you reraised pre but checked the flop on 2/2? Do you fold any of that unimproved on turn?

I've played very little and only pot limit (live HU in a big mix and on SwC for micros), so I haven't really thought much about ranges in this game, but I'll give it a go. When I raise pre in position and it goes 2/2, I'm cbetting any hand I'll be drawing 1 on, for value, protection, and balance. I'm probably not snowing much in this game just because of how easy it is to make a one-way hand and call down, so I suppose if I'm drawing 2 still I'll check back. I used to bet a lot of unimproved hands in 2-7TD after 2/2 and learned I was overbetting, so unless my opponent is especially tight-passive I'm not betting with a draw 2. The only draw 2 hands I'm 3betting preflop are probably 3 low rainbow cards, so I'm probably never folding even if unimproved on the turn. I probably wouldn't even fold the aforementioned 345.

Well, there is a key difference between 2-7TD and Badacey, your three current three cards have the ability to win half the pot unimproved. In 2-7TD you can't thus I don't think it serves a big purpose. The only thing I can think of is maybe you have 237 and made some discards of 2s, 3s, and 7s. I think betting a premium tri unimproved is fine in a 2/2 in Badacey. If you get c/r it's a not a big deal. Plus if you bet, get called, and he draws one you have a little more clarity on the strength of his holding; it's not super strong. But if it goes check/ check and he draws one you don't know if he was trying to c/r you.

I think I would say folding the unimproved 345 is probably best but would be lying if I said I have never called in a spot like this.

Scotch just wrote a killer Badugi article in the magazine..

https://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/...ugi-part-6.php

Where can we discuss this badugi series? I have checked in 'discuss the magazine forum' and can not find a spot. Maybe we can start a new thread here for discussion?

Also, sorry to hijack the thread but my favorite part in your article is when you are drinking and get people to think you think you have a badugi. Man I cracked up that is such a killer line! You can't do that on seals tho b/c it reads your hand at bottom right but great live play! HAHAHAHA

Thanks for the kind words! We can discuss anywhere, maybe a thread in this forum would be best.