Quote:
Originally Posted by MacauBound
Prob referring to your perceptions of how villains play these split-pot draw lowball games. I think you're overestimating FE post-draw in these games. Snowing rarely works, as these are by far the most showdown-bound draw games. Like otr posted, even if you pat after 2nd draw and villain is UI, he will often rightly put you on an A-5 hand and call/D2 to try to make a badugi for the chop and/or bink for the scoop every now and then. And that's w 345xx, which is prob the bottom third of his pre draw range.
Betting UI tris OOP (or in position) will cost you money in Ba/Bd against thinking players. Way too easy for villains to improve to nutty one way hands or decent two way hands (both of which can raise after it goes 2:2 if they know your betting range consists of UI hands) and you'll just get punished for bloating the pot without enough value.
As played, the river is a bet. You are a decent favorite to have the best A-5 and you scoop the (A35)9T type hands that will always call. Don't expect any badugi to fold though.
I also appreciate your articles and the promotion of some funky games.
Yeah that’s probably it, but I think in this particular situation I think we would both be making bad calls. Do you call with 345 here? Would you check/call A26?
I wanted to gather some opinions about calling/ raising ranges, figure out mathematical probabilities of attaining these hands, and compare to price we have for stealing and make observations.
OOP unimproved I hardly ever consider betting unless I hit pair cards all of my draws. I don’t think I’ve ever snowed in these games. I agree with all of that.
On river the more I think about it the more I feel I have a check/call. Even if I’m equally likely to scoop as opposed to being scooped I’m paying two bets usually when scooped and only gained when I scoop. But I think I’m scooped more often.
Thanks, I’m glad people enjoy the articles. I do hope they bring new people to the games.